EIA methods and techniques for

impact prediction and evaluation

Muhammad Jamal-ud-Din Qureshi

(Lecturer)-Department of Environmental Science
IIUI.
Level BS Hons .
 EIA Methods
List of Environment EIA Methods
The following are the important methodologies of utility for
assessing the impacts of developmental activities on the
environment.
I. Adhoc methods
2. Checklists methods
3. Matrices methods
4. Networks methods
5. Overlays methods
6. Cost/benefit analysis
7. Experts system
8. Quantitative mathematical model

An evaluation of various methodologies is presented in Table 1.

 Criteria for the Selection of EIA Methodology
Impact assessment methodologies range from simple to complex
and are also progressively changing from a static, piecemeal
approach to the one that reflects the dynamism of nature and the
environment.

(a) Simplicity: The methodology should be simple so that the

available manpower with limited background knowledge can
grasp and adopt it without much difficulty.

(b) Manpower time and budget constraints: The methodology

should be applied by a small group with a limited budget and
under time constraints.

(c) Flexibility: The methodology should be flexible enough to

allow for necessary modifications and changes through the
course of the study.
 1. Adhoc method

Ad hoc methods involve assembling a team of specialists to

identify impacts in their area of expertise. In this method, each
environmental area, such as, air, and water, is taken
separately and the nature of the impacts, such as, short-term
or long term, reversible or irreversible are considered. Ad hoc
methods are for rough assessment of total impact giving the
broad areas of possible impacts and the general nature of
these possible impacts. For example, the impacts on animal
and plant life may be stated as significant but beneficial.
 Continued…
In the ad hoc methods, the assessor relies on intuitive
approach and makes a broad-based qualitative assessment.
This method serves as a preliminary assessment which helps
in identifying more important areas like :

I. Wildlife 2. Natural drainage 3. Recreation

3. Endangered species 4. Natural vegetation 5.Exotic
vegetation 6. Grazing 7. Social characteristics 8.Groundwater
9. Noise 10. Air Quality 11. Visual description and services
12. Open space.

The ad hoc methods, while being very simple can be performed

without any training, merely present the pertinent information of
a project's effects on the environment without any sort of
relative weighting or any cause-effect relationship.
 Continued…

It provides minimal guidance for impact analysis while

suggesting broad areas of possible impacts. It does not even
state the actual impacts on specific parameters that will be
affected.
The ad hoc method has the following drawbacks:
(a) It gives no assurance that it encompasses a comprehensive
set of all relevant impacts;
(b) It lacks consistency in analysis as it may select different
criteria to evaluate different groups of factors; and.
(c) It is inherently inefficient. as it requires a considerable effort
to identify and assemble an appropriate panel for each
assessment.
 2. Checklists method
Checklists in general are strong in impact identification and are
capable of bringing them to the attention and awareness of their
audiences. Impact identification is the most fundamental function
of an EIA and in this respect, all types of checklists, namely
simple, descriptive, scaling and weighting checklists do equally
well.
Checklists are of four broad categories and represent one of the
basic methodologies used in EIA. They are:
(a) Simple Checklists: that are a list of parameters without
guidelines provided on how to interpret and measure an
environmental parameter.
(b) Descriptive Checklists: that includes an identification of
environmental parameters and guidelines on how parameter
data are to be measured. Descriptive checklists are widely used
in environmental impact studies.
 Continued…
(c) Scaling Checklists: that are similar to descriptive checklist
with the addition of information basis to subjective scaling or
parameter values.
(d) Scaling Weighting Check Lists: are capable of quantifying
impacts.
"Simple checklists" represent lists of environmental factors.
which should be addressed: however. no information is provided
on specific data needs. methods for measurement. Or impact
prediction and assessment. "Descriptive checklists" refer to
methodologies that include lists of environmental factors along
with information on measurement and impact prediction and
assessment.
Scaling and weighting inherent in the latter types of checklists
facilitates decision making.
 Continued…
Such checklists, apart form being strong in impact
identification. also incorporate the functions of impact
measurement and to a certain degree of interpretation and
evaluation, and it is those aspects that make them more
amenable to decision- making analysis.

Simple checklists represent a valid approach for providing

systemization to an EIS and Table 2 presents a list of
environmental factors to be considered in construction and
operational phases. The checklist also includes information on
mitigation.
Table 3 Descriptive checklist for land development projects.
 Continued…

Simple and descriptive checklists consider environmental factors

and/or impacts, which can be helpful in planning and conducting
an EIS, particularly if one or more checklists for the specific project
type can be utilized.

Example of Descriptive Checklist: (see next page)

Resource Past Activities Present Future Future Cumulative
Activities Activities Impacts Impacts

Ground Contamination Contamination Excavation in Contamination Contamination

Water from Industrial from surface water site would from surface exceeds
use percolation result in water standard
mobilization of percolation
contaminants

Air No significant Emission from Addition Emission from Combined

Emission from emissions existing power emissions existing power emissions of
station within station within two power
standard standard stations results
in significant
impact.
 3. Matrices
Matrices are strong in identifying impacts and unlike checklists.
can also represent higher order effects and interaction. Some of
the dynamic nature of impacts can also be identified. They can
also provide the functions of impact measurement interpretation
and evaluation, and can communicate the results in an easily
understandable format to their audiences. But they cannot
compare alternatives in a single format, and different alternatives
need to be assessed and presented separately. The purpose of a
matrix is to help the project planner to
I. Identify specific sources of potential environmental impact
2. Provide means of comparing the predicted environmental
impacts of the various project options available
3. Communicate in graphic form the
(i) Potentially significant adverse environmental impact for which
a design solution has been identified
 Continued…
(ii) Adverse environmental impact that is potentially significant but
about which insufficient information has been obtained to make a
reliable predication
(iii) Residual and significant adverse environmental impact and
(iv) Significant environmental impact
Several types of matrices have been used in EA practice (for
example, Leopold matrix, Peterson matrix, Component
Interaction Matrix). The best known example is probably the
Leopold Matrix (Leopold et al., 1971, see table 4), representing a
pioneering approach to EIA. This matrix was designed for the
assessment of impacts associated with most types of
construction projects, listing 100 different project actions along
one axis and 88 environmental characteristics and conditions
along the other, including aspects of both, the biophysical and
socio-economic environments.
 Continued…
Also, it involves qualitative as well as quantitative information
about cause and effect relationships. Several authors have
stressed that the determination of relative importance or
significance of an impact is a highly subjective process, and
ideally should reflect consensus of opinion among experts
from a variety of disciplines.
 Continued…
The interaction in terms of its magnitude and importance will be
considered in the method. The '"magnitude" of an interaction is
its extensity or scale and is described by the assignment of a
numerical value from I to 10, with 10 representing a large
magnitude and I a small magnitude. Values near 5 on the
magnitude scale represent impacts of intermediate extensity.
Assignment of numerical values for the magnitude of an
interaction should be based on an objective evaluation of facts
related to the anticipated impact. The "importance“ of an
interaction is related to its significance, or an assessment of the
probable consequences of the anticipated impact. The scale of
importance also ranges from 1 to 10. with 10 representing a very
important interaction and I an interaction of relatively low
imp011ance. Assignment of a numerical importance value is
based on the subjective judgments of the expert group, or
interdisciplinary team working on the study.
 Example table 4
Project Blasting Recreational Cut and fill Tunnels and Offshore
and drilling structure underground structures
activities
structures
(actions)
Env.
Items

Biological
conditions

Flora

8 5 4 5
5 9
6 7
 4.Networks -
These are a representation of the causal linkages between an
initial action and potential final consequences, as such they
explicitly recognize that environmental systems consist of a
complex web of relationships. The advantages of these
approaches are that they are realistic, help in identifying remedial
and monitoring requirements, and identify indirect impacts. Their
disadvantages are that they require considerable time to
complete given their complexity and do not estimate magnitude or
significance.
 5. Overlay maps
These are usually a series of transparencies - highlighting areas
of sensitivity, etc. - used to identify, predict and assign
significance and communicate impacts. Nowadays, this approach
is dominated by the use of Geographical Information Systems
technology, which enables the overlay and complex manipulation
of spatially registered data (e.g. sites of special scientific interest,
centers of population, areas of outstanding natural beauty, etc.).
This approach has the advantage of being easy to understand
given the use of clear spatial data, and is designed to lead to low
impact decisions. The disadvantages are that there is no
consideration of secondary impacts, the possibility of occurrence
nor the reversible/ irreversible nature of any change.
Furthermore, the approach requires unrealistically clear
classification of boundaries.
Figure: Presentation of array of variables in overlay
method.
 6. Cost/Benefit Analysis
Cost/benefit analysis provides the nature of expense and benefit
accruable from a project in monetary terms as a common
practice in traditional feasibility studies and thus enables easy
understanding and aids decision-making. The principal methods
available for placing monetary values (costs and benefits) on
environmental impacts, a taxonomy of valuation methods, and
steps involved in economic evaluation of environmental impacts
are discussed under this category.
The role of environmental economics in an EIA can be divided
into three categories, namely:
I. The use of economics for "benefit-cost analysis" as an integral
part of project selection;
2. The use of economics in the assessment of activities
suggested by the EIA; and
3. The economic assessment of the environmental impacts of
the project.
 Continued…
Environmental economics can aid in the selection of projects
in that benefit-cost analysis can be used in the prescreening
stage of the project, and the environmental components can
be brought into the process of presenting various options and
selecting among them.
Cost/benefit analysis of the type for assessment of natural
systems is not merely concerned with the effects on
environmental quality, but rather, it seeks the conditions for
sustainable use of the natural resources in a region. This type
of approach is not useful for small scale development projects,
but is better suited for the analysis and evaluation of a
regional development plan. Even thought it may not be
possible to place an economic value on environmental losses
or gains resulting from a developmental project, decision
makers should take into account implied environmental values
in their decision-making
 Continued…
At a minimum, the following six tasks need to
be completed in the economic analysis of environmental
impacts
1. determine the spatial and conceptual boundaries of the
analysis;
2. identify environmental impacts and their relationships to the
project;
3. quantify environmental impacts and organize them
according to importance – the impacts described qualitatively,
if they cannot be expressed in quantitative terms;
4. choose a technique for economic valuation;
5. economic valuation (place monetary values) of
environmental impacts identified; and
6. set an appropriate time frame and perform the extended
benefit cost analysis.
7. Experts system

Expert or knowledge-based systems are used to assist

diagnosis, problem solving and decision-making. A number of
such computerized systems have been developed for use in
EIA, primarily at the early stages of the process. For example,
screening and scoping procedures have been automated
using a number of rules and a data system, which encodes
expert knowledge and judgment. The user has to answer a
series of questions that have been systematically developed to
identify impacts and determine their ‘mitigability’ and
significance. Based on the answer given to each question, the
expert system moves to the next appropriate question.
 8. Quantitative mathematical models
Quantitative models express cause-effect relationships as
mathematical functions, derived from deterministic or
probabilistic relationships. A number of such models are used
in EIA to predict certain types of impacts, for example, on air,
water, soil and habitat. More complex computer-based
simulations are data demanding and often their use in EIA
requires certain simplifying assumptions to be made.
The choice and use of quantitative models for impact
prediction should be suited to the particular cause-effect
relationship being studied; for example, transport and late of
oil spills, sediment loadings and fish growth and pesticide
pollution of groundwater aquifers.
 Continued…

Examples of the use of quantitative models include:

• air dispersion models to predict emissions and pollution
concentrations at various locations resulting from the operation
of a coal-fired power plant;
• hydrological models to predict changes in the flow regime
of rivers resulting from the construction of a reservoir; and
• ecological models to predict changes in aquatic biota (e.g.
benthos, fish) resulting from discharge of toxic substances.
Thanks