TRENDS

MODULE 1
 DEFINING TREND

• Trend is define in various ways. In the field of arts, fashion, and music, it is a prevailing style or
preference such as realism movement in art, emergence of the miniskirt, and popularity of jazz music.
In economics, it is a general movement registering statistical changes for a long period such as the
increasing cost of living and rate of unemployment. In politics, it refers to a tendency, drift or bend
toward a certain stance, thought, or policy as when democratic Southeast Asian countries favored
authoritarian government at a certain point in their histories. Other areas also exhibit prevailing
preferences such as in sports(wearable devices that monitor training performance), food (rise of
oatmeal treatment), cosmetics (whitening supplements), travel(paperless tickets and online check-
in),manufacturing (3-D printing), and environmental management (home solar electric system).In other
words, a trend is a pattern of behavior demonstrated by a big number of people within a particular
period.
 DEFINING TREND
• Sociologists view trend as a collective behavior or mass involvement that is acceptable to society and shows a “line
of historical continuity” as it can be downplayed today but can resurface sometime in the future. The tight pants, for
instance, was the trend toward the end of the 1960s, after which, the bell-bottom pants relegated the former to the
side. Nowadays, tight pants have made a comeback, especially in the form of skinny jeans. Commerce as an
academic course became a trend for a long period of time in the past until new courses and degrees such as
computer engineering, nursing, and hotel and restaurant management became popular and in demand. It can be
observed, however, that commerce as a popular course has made a comeback due to heightened globalization,
where business and entrepreneurship play a key role.
 SPOTTING A TREND
• Someone or something starts or causes a trend. A person who starts a trend is called a trendsetter. The
individual's act or the event has attracted attention ,earned acceptance, and created strong interest and influence
on people whose number keeps snowballing as days go by. The act or event is something different from what is
currently going on and it becomes “the next big thing.” It demonstrates an accelerated spread among various
sectors and areas and creates a deep and wide scope of influence on people, sectors, and the environment. It
leads to change. According to futurists (a futurist is one who studies and predicts the future, especially on the
basis of current trends) Alf Rehn and Magnus Lindkvist (2013), trendspotting refers to “the study of trends and
the way they develop and affect society. "This should be differentiated from cool-hunting, which is “a hunt for
those things that will become popular before they are popular.” Trend analysis is “based on trendspotting but it
extends this into developing future scenarios.” Cool-hunting can be understood as looking for things that are
going to be popular, whereas trendspotting is looking for future trends, generally including those that are less or
not obvious, which ultimately affect society and the way people live. Trendspotting requires more analysis. For
example, discovering what accessories will hit the fashion markets in the next season is cool-hunting, as well as
a record label producer looking for the next singing sensation.
 SPOTTING A TREND

• Trend spotting seeks broader subjects that lead to changes in human perception, say, in
clothing and music. Imagine how the marketers of the denim jeans, notably Levi's, positioned
denim jeans from being a workwear to being quality wear that exudes individuality and
informality. Soon, the denim jeans became ubiquitous in every country and a must-have.
Think of composers and performers of pop music that help define the taste of a generation of
listeners, possibly touching emotions and upholding attitudes. Original Pilipino Music
(OPM),which started in the late 1970s, provided songs with a uniquely Filipino pop feel
different from the previous colonially influenced songs and art songs. Trendspotting is the
basis for trend analysis, which has applications in several fields. Here are the characteristics
that a trend spotter should possess, based and adapted from Rehn and Lindkvist(2013).
 SPOTTING A TREND

• 1.Adopt a beginner's mind - Know how to unlearn things. With a beginner's mind, you can see things in a new
light, as if everything is new and strange; thus you will be able to detect even small changes and shifts that
field experts tend to ignore.
• 2. Know why and what you are looking for - Ascertain first the reason why you are looking for trends. Only
then can you focus on what kinds of trends to spot and how to specifically look for them. The reasons of a
businessman are different from those of an enthusiast, a traveler, or a writer.
• 3. Move and search in many places - Look beyond what and where others are looking for and searching at.
Dare to look for something different and do not remain in your comfort zones. As an analogy, instead of
going where the tourist guide leads you, try to explore other places and go to areas where most do not go to or
even notice. When you are led to the mostly used hashtag, for example, you are merely cool-hunting. Learn
to take note of what is happening now to imagine and search what will be happening in the future.
 SPOTTING A TREND

• 4. Beware of the obvious - Do not join the bandwagon of the obvious-the flashy things (the peacock).
Remember that if something is easy to spot, everyone most likely sees it too. Things that are less
visible (the pigeons) effect changes in culture and society. Just think about how the mundane plastic
chairs (monobloc chairs) influenced how people gather and how ubiquitous they have been.
• 5. Never judge something as good or bad - Set aside your biases and be objective in looking for
trends. You may not like a topic, but you have to pursue knowing more of it if you are to be an
effective trend spotter. Pay attention to anything related to it and be critical too. For example, some
may find internet memes as unattractive, tasteless, or ridiculous, but their mere presence and
popularity speak a ton about a kind of internet user that finds more sense of the world through visual
culture.
 SPOTTING A TREND

• 7. Look for shifts rather than novelties - Observe for changes in how things are done or in people's behaviors when
something new is introduced. Do not delve on the novelty of a gadget, for example, per se. An undergoing shift is a
good sign of a developing trend. At first,the remote-controlled drone was seen as a fad with many enthusiasts
purchasing one. Then we see drones being used in filmmaking, shooting documentaries, news reporting, taking
photographs, and even in delivering packages. In photography, the use of drones has given us new perspectives in
terms of seeing things, ushering in a bigger and better understanding or view of the world, literally and figuratively.
Also included in this particular characteristic is the importance of taking note of what people actually do in contrast
with what they say they do.

• 8. Spot for combinations of things - Do not think of trends as a singular evolution or development of things. They
come as a combination of shifts or individual spots. For example, the ease by which we can use social media today
has been made possible due to a combination of the following: internet connection, smartphone technology, apps
development, globalization, algorithms, and emergence of netizens, to name a few.
 SPOTTING A TREND

• 9. Find the reason for something - However difficult this may be, seek logical explanations and causes for everything. By
understanding the reasons behind things, behaviors, changes, and shifts, you can get a better understanding of an emerging
trend. Merely looking at the surface is not enough. Considering something as inexplicable is not enough as well.
• By spotting a trend, you can think of ways to maintain your lead in your field of specialization, detect new opportunities to
grab, and “invent” a future life for you, your family, and your close friends. Institutions and trends specialists have been set
up primarily to conduct lectures, work shops, demonstrations, and trend tours regarding the techniques of trendspotting.
Such institutions and specialists provide tried and tested methods and tools to enable businesspeople, organizations, and
enterprises to spot the upcoming trends that will affect them, and consequently, to be equipped to predict the future of their
respective industries before their closest rivals are able to do so. There are journals and publications that specialize in
following trends, and they have become vital sources of information regarding major trends that will shape the future.
Monthly and quarterly forecasts tell how these trends will impact on one's life regardless of profession and business, how
one can benefit from them, and how to evade disastrous falls or grave mistakes that such trends might cause.
 TRENDS VS. FADS
• Trend and fad are both group patterns of behavior but not without differences. A trend lasts for a longer period of time than a
fad. It may take years before a trend slows down, but it only takes a few weeks or months for a fad to stay. Thus, a fad is a
temporary or short-lived pattern of group behavior. The Beatlemania in the 1960s and the hippie trends lasted for decades,
whereas the fad of the song “Bboom Bboom” by Momoland was short-lived. A trend has a record of occurrence in the past
and might continue to the present, something which is unseen in a fad. It leaves a long, significant mark in history and could
go on to the present.
• The rise of One Direction ushered back the boy band trend in music, which recurs intermittently since the 1960s.The
“Katchi” dance challenge and the mannequin challenge that went viral on television and social media were fads that quickly
faded away. Moreover, while trends can reflect or give the impression of people of a certain status that can afford to drink
gourmet coffee and eat organic food, fads are not associated with status symbols and are taken lightly by the nonparticipating
public. Sometimes, a trend can be considered as having implications on the social status of participants. This is true
especially in fashion and food.
• Trends and fads can happen in areas of life where change or transformation continuously occurs. This means that while you
are alive, you will encounter and experience various trends and fads.
 ELEMENTS OF TREND
• The following are elements or components of a trend:
• 1.Number of participants – A trend maybe started by an individual but the number of people who follow it becomes bigger as
time goes by. The group grows into a community which,not long after, swells into national and international societies. The
prevailing fashion of a period, for example, follows what celebrities are wearing or what fashion designers offer.People often
copy the trendsetters and so a new fashion trend develops. In the recent century, styles of clothing are usually distinguished
by decades.
• 2. Pattern of behavior - A trend is formed from repetitive actions of people. The simple act of taking a selfie has now become
a cultural trend. It is almost impossible not to see someone taking a selfie in any place-be it in a tourist spot, in a restaurant,in
a hotel lobby,beside a movie poster in a cinema, in a concert hall, and at an event, among others.Before smartphones and
portable digital cameras, pictures or portraits were taken by another person. The selfie phenomenon enabled people to
construct themselves visually and present it to the public by putting it on social media. Some view the taking of selfies with
disdain as a symbol of narcissism and superficiality, whereas others consider it as an act of self-exploration and a gauge for
acceptance.
 ELEMENTS OF TREND

• 3. Long period of time - A trend has a long time frame, sometimes running for decades.A trend may experience some ups
and downs in popularity, may fade away, and may reoccur .For many decades, the telephone was the main line of voice
communication. It revolutionized modern living and had great impacts socially, both positive and negative. Soon, it was
overtaken by the popularity of mobile phones in the late 1990s, which are portable and have the text messaging feature.
Then newer technologies allowed smartphones to include many applications and internet connectivity. Although
telephones are still present in homes and offices, smartphones clearly have gotten ahead in functionality and usage.
• 4. Cause - A trend has a starting point, which can be an idea, technology, event, or person. Portable audio players were
popularized when Walkman was introduced in the 198os, allowing people to listen to recorded music (cassette tapes)
through headphones or earphones. Later, it would evolve in the form of a portable CD player. Then came another
revolutionary trend with the advent of digital audio players where the music playlist could be saved onto the device or be
downloaded online. Now, mobile phones and smartphones also function as a portable music player. The culture of portable
music has come a long way from the invention of the transistor radio, and is still evolving depending on new emerging
technologies.
 ELEMENTS OF TREND

• 5. Consequence - A trend makes considerable influence or impact. Social networking

has become an encompassing trend that tends to influence behaviors of online users.
With the popularity of smartphones, users began subscribing to various social
networking portals, which enable them to post activity statuses and photos, and even
connect with celebrities. People can now air their opinions on diverse matters and say
almost anything instantly. Social networking users have reached billions.
 CHARACTERISTICS OF TRENDS

• Trends are difficult to study and analyze. Studying them is like predicting the future and determining
what changes may possibly last, and thus they have wide effects on society and the people. Rehn and
Lindkvist (2013) have mentioned a so-called hierarchy of trends,which explains why trends seem to
have varying reach, effects, and influences on people. This hierarchy is a representation of the scale
of the development of a trend. Microtrends are “little things that happen all around us all the time,
the tiny shifts that occur in everything from clothes we wear and the snacks we eat to the way we
work, play, and love." These trends happen right now and are outright observable. For others,
microtrends are synonymous with fads. The importance of microtrends is that they offer a glimpse
about the future through the clues they possess. Macrotrends, on the other hand, are “aggregated
microtrends or more sweeping changes that are affecting society.” They provide major changes that
are perceptible in the societal level for a longer period. These are more stable than microtrends,
which can quickly fizzle out.
 CHARACTERISTICS OF TRENDS

• Megatrends are “macrotrends that have grown up and moved out. They are big and bold, 'and affect the
lives of great swathes of the human race." They can last for decades and are “so pervasive as to be
generally known." Because of this condition, megatrends are regarded as obvious and evident. In other
words, they have become the prevailing condition that has become too normal. Gigatrends are “trends
that are so general that they affect most areas of human life-or, at least, more than one aspect of life or
more than one industry." Gigatrends are usually identified to define an era. To illustrate this hierarchy
of trends, study the following examples. Internet connection is now considered a gigatrend as its
functions are now tied up to the everyday activities of people all around the world. It has become too
normal such that it is now the base of several vital activities such as banking, business, online
communication, information gathering and dissemination, research, entertainment, transactions,
gaming, shopping, and more.
 CHARACTERISTICS OF TRENDS

• Smartphones can be considered a megatrend (if not bordering on being a gigatrend itself). They have
affected many lives and industries. In fact, many check their smartphones first thing in the morning to
read text or private messages, surf the Net, and so on. Many human activities also depend on
smartphones, whether directly or indirectly. Texting, likewise,has changed how people communicate. In
the past, communication was done through audio signals care of the telephone. With texting, which
traces its roots to a mobile phone function, communication can now be done through digitally written
words sent instantly. Social media can be considered as a macrotrend, but it can arguably turn into a
megatrend considering how common it is nowadays. The continuous development of platforms and
apps made the concept of social media pervasive across computer and smartphone users. While social
media would not have been a trend without the overall influence of the internet it has, nonetheless,
given many people a venue to be heard and to exchange thoughts, opinions, and ideas.
 CHARACTERISTICS OF TRENDS

• Popular games and apps on smartphones are examples of microtrends. One game can create a
mania that later wanes to give way to another. A few games have attained a higher level in the
trends hierarchy, such as Super Mario, which actually started in the 198os but has resurfaced
through different gaming platforms. For some, this particular game is a representation of an
era to which they belong. In recent years, the mobile game Pokemon GO has become very
popular. The augmented reality feature of the game caught the public's interest and was
downloaded many times, such that its developers earned almost $800 million in 2018. Trends
can also refer to movements, ideologies,concepts,beliefs, and more. The important thing in
studying trends is to observe them closely for subtle and sudden shifts that ultimately affect
people,cultures, and societies in general.
IDENTIFYING PARTS OF A WHOLE
 IDENTIFYING PARTS OF A WHOLE

• Another example is the visual culture we experience today. It was developed from various trends-digital
camera, smartphone, internet, Wi-Fi technology, social media,mobile apps, computer, fashion, art, and
photography, to name a few. Internet memes, infographics, and sharable videos seemed to be a
microtrend only, but they eventually became a mainstay in disseminating information. Even large news
organizations and government websites use them.This visual culture trend (which can be considered a
megatrend) has evolved further with the advent of the internet. The smartphone and Wi-Fi access
greatly helped the new form of visual culture that is subscribed to by many social media users, if not
all. Remember that microtrends can become macrotrends if they affect more lives and societies. Then
macrotrends can become a megatrend if it can affect a much larger group for a longer period of
time.Megatrends can become gigatrends if they have ever-lasting effects and influences.Therefore, it is
evident that a larger thing (the whole) consists of smaller things or parts.
 IDENTIFYING EMERGING PATTERN

• A pattern is a design, shape, form, or configuration that emerges from repetitious

appearance of lines, curves, and behavior. In the study of trends, repetitive behavior
that gives rise to an emerging pattern is the main interest. To follow and observe if a
pattern emerges out of various events and phenomena, one should have the tools
necessary to detect it. The tools that a trendspotter should find handy to use are
categorized into four activities. According to Rehn and Lindkvist (2013),these
activities are the following:
 IDENTIFYING EMERGING PATTERN

• 1. Documentation- This means being able to record your observations that you consider related to any
trend.The primary tools for documentation, however simple,are notebook and pen. Some opt to use note-
taking features or apps on a smartphone or tablet. The camera has also become necessary in providing
visuals. Others bring a voice recorder, which is best for saving audio. Whatever tool one uses, the
important thing in documentation is the ability to physically keep information and data wherever and
whenever you may be.
• 2. Archive or Memory - This means being able to easily retrieve any documentation you have kept.
Nowadays, the most space-saving way of archiving is turning the physical into digital. Notes can be
scanned or converted to a portable document format (PDF) while digital pictures can be easily saved.
Physical archiving can, of course, still be used. There are various digital archiving systems that are
available too. Tagging and cross-indexing are helpful in labeling files.
 IDENTIFYING EMERGING PATTERN
• 3. Analysis-This is the stage where examination and combination happens. Looking for patterns on prospective trends can be
achieved through these methods: brainstorming, grouping, and crafting combinations. In brainstorming, you decide which
from your data is important and which can be discarded. Here, you can confirm emerging patterns such as events becoming
more frequent and things following a cycle. In grouping, you create headings where observations and data can fall under. In
crafting combinations, you begin to link one thing to another and think what could happen if these are taken a step further,
more like imagining or generating new ideas.
• 4.Presentation - This is representing your findings for easy understanding as a way of analysis. You can represent your
findings through, among others, a mood board and a storyboard. A mood board is a collage of images, text, and object
samples. This is used to “capture your intuition and stimulate creative discussions about trends.” A storyboard presents a
narrative of possible scenarios. It functions to "connect trends to a timeline and to different contexts, something that can
enable you and others to see interesting new things.” A slideshow is also another option. In presentation, you do not merely
present your ideas but use it as an analytical technique. Sometimes, new trends are labeled with new names or terms in the
hope of popularizing a phenomenon.
 DIFFERENTIATING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN
CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
• A cause refers to an agent that brings about a result or a consequence. A consequence is always traceable to a cause, which
can be a person, thing, principle,motive,act, or event. There is no cause without a consequence and vice versa.For example,
strong typhoons in a certain area may cause damages in lives and property, which will prompt the government and
nongovernment organizations (NGOs) to call for donations. Some media outlets may also organize fundraising events as a
result.

• The Beatlemania trend in the 1960s was caused by The Beatles, a British singing quartet who earned the adulation of
millions of fans around the world. The group heavily influenced the pop culture landscape by changing the face of the
music industry and creating new fashion and hairstyle.They were also considered gender-benders as their songs empowered
feminism and their demeano veered away from machismo, leading to a changed view of masculinity. The Beatlemania
introduced the tight pants, androgynous and colorful clothes, and mop-top hairdo among the youth. It also brought in a
surge in fandom never seen before. Teenage girls were relentlessly screaming throughout the band's live performances. This
behavior is still evident in fan crazes of subsequent male pop groups. were relenuessty screaming throughout the band's live
performances. This behavior is still evident in fan crazes of subsequent male pop groups.
 DIFFERENTIATING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN
CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
• So, Beatlemania was, of course, caused by the rise of The Beatles to the top of the pop music scene. The effect of
Beatlemania was not only limited to Britain and the U.S. but it spread to the rest of the world. The recent travel boom can
be traced to low airfares and satellite-based navigation system. Additionally, more and more people go on weekend travels
and document them in their blogs. The photos they attach and publish online encourage others to visit the same places,
therefore increasing the tourism income of the locals. In world politics, the democratization (transition from authoritarian
regime to a more democratic system) trend that recorded an upward trajectory starting from 1989 to the early 2000s was
triggered by the breakdown of authoritarian regimes symbolized by the fall of the Berlin Wall.The Berlin Wall separated
the communist East Berlin and East Germany (German Democratic Republic) from the capitalist West Berlin and West
Germany (Federal Republic of Germany).For decades after the Second World War, the partition of Germany reflected the
fighting ideologies between the democratic-capitalist world, on one hand, and the socialist- communist blocs, on the other
hand, during the so-called Cold War era. The demolition of the Berlin Wall had global effects. Several revolutions and
change of power in Europe (Poland, Hungary,Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania) also followed or predated the fall of
Berlin Wall. This event resonated to other communist states and eventually led to the collapse of the Soviet Union into
separate independent republics in 1991. This victory of democracy over communism, which supported authoritarian
regimes or dictatorships, signaled the end of the Cold War.
 DIFFERENTIATING RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN
CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
• The rise of extremism and terrorism in recent history was brought about by certain ideologies that first
spread underground among disgruntled groups of people. The terrorist attack last 11 September 2001 (known
as 9/11) ushered many changes in politics and security as a new world order was put in place. What followed
were frequent terrorist and extremist activities perpetuated by groups such as al-Qaeda and the so-called
Islamic State. Their adherents staged terrorist attacks in many world cities while others were commanded by
their superiors to make individual and uncoordinated attacks. This trend of violence caused policy changes
(such as controlling the influx of immigrants to Europe), the resurgence of racism, a surge of rightist
movements, and an increase in anti-establishment sentiments, to name a few. The string of events detailed in
the previous paragraph exemplifies the cause-consequence relationship wherein one event may lead to
another and so on. A cause brings about one or more consequences, which may be either positive or
negative.Whatever the results of a cause, the events that are noted in each result will help produce a picture
of a trend that is studied to be adopted in many life applications. The relationship between cause and
consequence is salient to strategic thinking and analysis.