MODELLING

CHAPTER 9 – CAMBRIDGE AS INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGY
 LEARNING OBJECTIVES:

• By the end of this chapter, you will be able to:

• use what-if analysis
• test a spreadsheet model
• describe the characteristics of modelling software
• explain the need for computer models
• evaluate the effectiveness of spreadsheet models
• explain how a model can be used to create and run simulations.
 INTRODUCTION

• Modelling means the use of a computers to represent a real-life

situation. A model is created through mathematical analysis of the
real-world process. A simulation is the use of a computerized
model to predict how a real-life system might behave. Details in a
computer model can be easily changed to see what effects they
would have.
• This is often cheaper and safer than trying out changes on the
real-world process.
 CHARACTERISTICS OF
MODELLING SOFTWARE SUCH AS SPREADSHEET

Spreadsheet software is often used to create computer models. The characteristics of spreadsheets which
make them so suitable for this purpose include:
• The ability to replicate formulae throughout a model which can be influenced using absolute and relative
cell referencing. You can increment the parts of a formula you need to by using relative cell referencing.
The use of absolute cell referencing helps to keep parts of the formula you wish to remain constant do so.
• The use of cell protection, which ensures that the cells which are crucial to your model are not changed
accidentally by someone who is using the spreadsheet.
• Automatic recalculation. This means that when you alter data in a spreadsheet any formula which makes
use of that data is automatically recalculated.
• Conditional formatting in spreadsheets allows you to highlight certain values that match specific criteria.
• There are user interface forms which make it easier to input values into the model by showing clearly
where data is to be entered.
• Spreadsheets also make use of graphs or charts to reveal trends over a given period of time.
 THE NEED FOR COMPUTER MODELS

There are a number of reasons why computer models are useful and necessary. including training, forecasting and
construction. Whatever the reason, a model must be able to answer what-if questions.
• Cost: If engineers are designing structures such as bridges and high-rise buildings, or designing cars and planes, it
is very expensive to correct mistakes. If a computer model is used, then the costs of any mistakes practically
disappear.
• Testing: Another reason is the ability to test the design. It would be impossible to build several different types of
building just to see which is most likely to survive heavy flooding. However, it can be done relatively easily with a
computer model.
• Prediction: It is impossible to travel through time, so in order to predict events over a large time span, such as
climate change or population growth, computer models are used as they are the best way of making predictions.
• Time-efficiency: Modelling also saves time as well as money. Car manufacturers can perform more tests in a
shorter space of time with a computer model than by arranging tests of prototypes with crash-test dummies inside
them over and over again.
• Safety: Some situations are dangerous, such as experimenting with a nuclear reactor. A computer model is a much
safer way to do this.
 THE NEED FOR COMPUTER MODELS

• Costs are saved because real equipment does not suffer wear and tear
• fuel is not required to operate machinery and instructors do not need to be present all of the time.
• It is also possible to test the trainee in unpredictable situations such as turbulence for an aeroplane or
driving a heavy goods vehicle on Ice.
• Unpredictable situations that would happen in real life can also be removed for trainees when they first start
learning so they can focus on basic controls.
• Models can also be used for forecasting e.g. weather forecasting. Patterns that have happened in the past
can be analysed with current data to predict what the weather might in the future.
• Businesses and governments use financial modelling to predict what might happen to profits or the
economy. It is too risky for a business to make sudden changes in the marketplace without testing them out
with a model first. A variety of what-if questions can be asked using a model to determine how to make the
most profit. Variables that could be changed include selling prices, adjusting the quantity of products to
supply at any given time, times of year to sell products and the effect of weather on seasonal sales.
 BENEFITS OF SPREADSHEETS MODELS

• Calculations can be performed a lot more quickly than if you were writing them down or even using a calculator.
• It is also possible to automatically import data into a spreadsheet from a database. This saves you the trouble of having
to manually input data into your spreadsheet.
• Spreadsheet models are very useful for observing patterns which take place over a long period of time e.g. studying
animal population growth.
• Spreadsheet models allows for the automatic updating of graphs. Any graphs which show these trends are automatically
updated as values are changed within the model. New graphs are produced automatically.
• Decisions made by spreadsheet models are consistent for the same inputs, which is not always the case with different
humans.
• Users can save time setting up the spreadsheet by using an existing template which might just need to be slightly
amended to suit the particular situation.
• Validation rules can also be built into spreadsheet models. This means that data input errors are reduced as the
validation will ensure only data which is reasonable is allowed to be entered.
 DRAWBACKS OF SPREADSHEETS
MODELS

• It is very difficult to include every possible variable in a spreadsheet model.

• Some situations will need software to be specially designed and/or computer
experts to create a model, and neither of these is inexpensive to purchase or
invest in.
• It may take a very long time to produce a complex model. Various phases are
used when producing a model.
• The staff at the organization which is going to use the spreadsheet need to be
trained to use this model. This creates an extra expense to the organization on
top of paying the creator(s) of the spreadsheet model.
 USES OF COMPUTER MODELS

• Financial forecasting: For example, what-if analysis canbe used to see the effect on the amount of profit a company makes
by changing variables such as staff income, cost of production, etc. What-if analysis can also be used to produce results
showing the number of products that must be sold in a given period for the company to make a specific profit.
• Population growth: A population-growth computer model tries to predict the population of an organism based on a number
of variables, such as how often the organism reproduces, how many new organisms it produces each time, limiting factors
(such as limited resources like food and water), natural death rates and types of predators.
• Weather forecasting: computer models helps weather forecasters to make more reliable predictions. Predictions can be
made because similar weather conditions will have been observed over very long periods of time.
• Climate change models: They can be used to predict the average weather condition over a long period of time.
• Traffic flow model: It can be used to forecast the amount of traffic, taking into account factors such as increased vehicle
use as well as changes in the methods of transport people use, such as changing from taking the bus to taking the train or
car.
• Construction: The most common type of software used in the construction industry is computer-aided design (CAD). It is
used by architects and engineers to create precise drawings or technical illustrations. CAD software can be used to create
two-dimensional (2-D) drawings or 3-D models. CAD software is used to design structures such as bridges and buildings,
and can also be used to generate animations and other presentational material.
 ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF CAD

• Advantages
• CAD can allow a user to design a part much faster than traditional drawing. There is a library of shapes and designs so only
minor modifications need to be made.
• Using computer-aided design software, it will be much easier to make any changes because you can fix the errors and
modify the drawings more easily.
• It is also more accurate. The number of errors that used to occur with manual designs is significantly reduced.
• The different parts of the design can be reused over and over again and CAD tools make it easier to save files of the
drawings and store them in a way that they can be used time and again.
• Disadvantages
• Work can be lost because of the sudden breakdown of computers.
• It takes time for users to learn how to use the software and with every new release of the CAD software the user has to
update their skills which can take time.
• It is expensive to regularly update CAD software or operating systems.
• CAD software can be expensive to buy, and it costs a lot of money to train workers to use the software.
 SIMULATIONS

• A computer simulation is when a computer is used to imitate an event as it happens in the

real world. A simulation is created usually from a mathematical model which represents
the real system.
• It consists of computer programs, which are written to include the main features of this
real-world system.
• The model is the representation of the system, whereas the simulation is how the system
performs over time.
• Computer simulations are often used to represent environments that may be difficult or
even dangerous to replicate in real life. Natural-disaster planning and nuclear-science
research come under these categories.
 USES OF SIMULATIONS

• Pilot training
• Learning to drive a car
• Natural-disaster planning
• Nuclear science research
 ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF
SIMULATIONS

• Advantages
• With a simulator you do not have to worry about the cost of repairing and replacing damaged cars or airplanes.
• You may need fewer driving or flying instructors resulting in lower costs.
• Simulators can provide results that are generally difficult to measure such as reaction times.
• With a simulator you can see how a system might work before you design or modify it, resulting in fewer mistakes in the system.
• A simulator prevents injury or even death in the event of a car or plane crash.
• Some events, such as extreme weather conditions, can be recreated fairly easily without having to wait for them to happen in real life.

• Disadvantages
• Buying a simulator with a fast processor and large amounts of memory can be very expensive.
• The technical support for such simulators can prove to be more expensive than regular servicing of airplanes and vehicles.
• A driving school using a simulator from scratch will need to retrain driving instructors, costing money and taking time.
• The unpredictability of human behaviour means that it may be impossible to create simulations that cover all eventualities.
• Inaccurate output from the simulation can occur as the formulae and functions used may not accurately represent all possible scenarios.
• It may make drivers or pilots overconfident and too casual regarding their abilities.
• There is sometimes not sufficient data to produce a mathematical model.
 USING WHAT-IF ANALYSIS

• Computer models all base their model upon a what-if analysis.

• This involves changing a model to find out what the results would be, if different input
values are chosen.
• You need to know how to build, test and change data within models, or change the model
itself to produce different sets of results.
• Simple computer models can be created, tested and used in Excel. Some models only
require a change in data.