Session-13

Recap- Session - 12
• Resource loading
• Resource levelling
• Time-constraint projects
• Resource-constraint projects
• Ways of levelling
• Use slacks
• Alter the network relationships
• Split the task
• Change the scope
• Assign more efficient resources
The PERT Technique
(Program Evaluation & Review
Technique)
PERT:

Program
Evaluation
and Review
Technique

The PERT technique addresses variability of

the duration of activities on the critical path
Project Duration –Variability of Activity
Duration
• For new activities/projects activity duration is not
a single, deterministic value.

• There is a range of possible durations for most

activities

• The range of possible activity durations can be

presented as a distribution curve:

Now consider a network of activities …

 Project Duration –Variability of Activity
Duration
• Project duration is determined by the duration of
activities on the critical path

• But the duration of each activity is variable.Each

activity has a duration distribution:
PERT (cont’d)
 PERT is a method that treats completion times
as probabilistic (stochastic) events
 PERT was developed to deal with uncertainty in
projects, and to estimate project duration when
activity times are hard to estimate
 PERT answers questions e.g.
 What is probability of completing project within 20
days?
 If we want a 95% level of confidence, what should the
project duration be?
PERT Technique (Cont’d)
Distribution is based upon
three estimates for each
activity:
a = optimistic
m = most likely
b = pessimistic a m b

The estimates are presumably based upon

experience
PERT Technique (Cont’d)
Now, given the a, b and m estimates, for
every activity compute expected time te
Where a = optimistic
m = most likely
b = pessimistic
Example:
Assume a = 3, m = 6, b = 15
Then te =7
PERT Technique (Cont’d)
Also, given the a, b and m estimates, for
every activity compute the standard
deviation, 

Example: assume a = 3, m = 6, b = 15
Then  = 2
PERT Technique (Cont’d)
These formulas are based on assumption that
each activity duration conforms to Beta
distribution (not Normal distribution)

Beta Distribution:
 Not necessarily symmetrical
 Definite cut-off points

 A single peak

a m b
Consider the following project information and answer the
following,

1. What is the probability of finishing the project in 67 day?

2. If we want a 95% level of confidence, what should the project
duration be

Activity a m b
1-2 17 29 47
2-3 6 12 24
2-4 16 19 28
3-5 13 16 19
4-5 2 5 14
5-6 2 5 8
Activity a m b te Ve
1-2 17 29 47 30 25
2-3 6 12 24 13 9
2-4 16 19 28 20 4
3-5 13 16 19 16 1
4-5 2 5 14 6 4
5-6 2 5 8 5 1
Summary: The Role of PERT
PERT does not reduce project duration
However, it does the following:
1. Given a network with estimates a, m, and b as well as a
value for project duration, it provides a probability figure
for finishing on time
2. Alternatively, given a network with estimates a, m, and b
as well as a desired level of confidence (probability figure,
say 99%), it can calculate a project duration that
corresponds with the level of confidence
3. It provides insight in the effect of variability of activity
duration on the critical path
PERT only considers the critical path
There are often “near critical” paths
The optimistic (a), most likely (m), and pessimistic (b) time estimates, are
shown in following Table.

1. What is the time length of the critical path?

2. The project has begun on August 1. What is the probability that this project
can be completed by October 7?
DAYS
ACTIVITY a m b
AB 5 6 7
BC 3 6 9
CD 6 8 10
CE 5 6 7
DF 3 5 7
FG 4 6 10
FH 5 6 7
FI 4 5 8
FJ 6 8 10
JK 11 12 13
KL 5 7 9
KM 8 9 10
MN 5 6 11
LO 6 8 10
OP 6 7 8
PQ 3 4 5