VIEN NGHIEN CU TIN HOC & KINH TE

QUAN TR D AN AU T
THAC S LUAT GIA

TRAN NGOC NAM

QUAN TR D AN AU T
THS. LG. TRAN NGOC NAM
CHNG 1

GIA TR THEO THI GIAN CUA DONG TIEN

I- LAI N VA LAI KEP
1- LAI N
A : Tien lai n;
K : Von au t ban au;
r : Lai suat n;
n : So nam tnh lai.
A = K x r x n

2- LAI KEP
Neu tien lai cac thi ky trc c gop chung vao
von au t ban au e tnh tien lai cho ky tiep theo,
goi la phng phap tnh lai kep.
Sau 1 ky : T1 = K (1 + r)
Sau 2 ky : T2 = K (1 + r)2
Sau 3 ky : T3 = K (1 + r)3

Tn = K (1 + r)N

Tn : So tien thu c sau n ky. Gom von goc

cong vi lai;
K : Von au t ban au;
r : Lai suat;
N : So ky tnh lai.

II- DONG TIEN

Khi co nhieu khoan tien xuat hien cac thi iem khac nhau th chung
tao thanh mot dong tien. Dong tien c bieu dien len o th, goi la
bieu o dong tien.

1- QUY C VE DONG TIEN

- Thi gian c chia thanh nhieu thi oan. Trong d an au t, thi

oan c chia theo nam.
- Goc cua dong tien lay tai 0.
- Cac khoan tien xuat hien tai cac thi iem khac nhau trong cung mot
thi oan eu c xem nh xuat hien cuoi thi oan e tnh toan.
(Chang han cac khoan tien xuat hien vao thang 3, thang 7, thang 10 eu
c xem nh xuat hien vao cuoi nam o.

2- DONG TIEN BAT KY

Neu cac khoan tien co o ln bat ky, thi iem xuat hien
cua chung khong theo mot quy luat nao th goi la dong bat ky
nh dong tien di ay :

0
Po

2
P2

n-1
Pn-1

n
Pn

4 - GIA TR TNG LAI CUA TIEN TE

CUA MOT KHOAN THU NHAP
Tn = K (1 + r)n
(1 + r)n goi la tha so lai suat tng lai.

CACH TNH (1 + i)n

V du, K = 1000, r = 10%, n = 5
T = 1.000 (1 + 0,1)5
Ta bam may : 1,1 x x 1000 = = = = = 1.610

5- GIA TR TNG LAI

CUA MOT CHUOI TIEN TE ONG NHAT

Tn = K

(1 + r) n 1
r

* r : ty suat doanh li hang nam;

n 1
(1
+
r)
*
: goi la tha so lai suat tng lai cua chuoi
tien te eu r

6 - GIA TR HIEN TAI CUA MOT KHOAN TIEN

K = Tn (1 + r) -n
Tn :
So tien thu c sau n thang. Gom von goc cong vi lai;
K : Gia tr hien tai;
r : Ty le chiet khau;
n : So thang tnh lai.
(1 + r)-n =

1
(1 + i) n

: Tha so chiet khau

* PHNG PHAP TNH (1 + i)-n

V du, K = 1000, r = 10%, n = 5
T
= 1.000 (1 + 0,1)-5
Cach 1: Ta bam may : 1,1 x x = = = = : : 1 = x 1000 = 621
Cach 2: Ta bam may : 1 : 1,1 x x 1000 = = = = = 621
(NEN CHON CACH 1)

8- GIA TR HIEN TAI CUA MOT CHUOI TIEN TE BAT ONG

V =

Ti (1 + r) - i

i=0
V : Gia tr hien tai cua chuoi tien te ;
r : Ty le chiet khau;
Ti : Khoan tien thi iem i

9- KE HOACH VAY VA TRA N

P = A

1 (1 + i)- n
i

V du, mot ngi vay ngan hang 120 trieu ong vi lai
suat 10% nam. Thi han vay 5 nam, tra n va lai t
nam au tien. Tnh ke hoach tra n va lai hang nam.

CHNG 2

PHNG PHAP XAC NH

CH TIEU HIEU QUA VE TAI CHNH

Thi gian hoan von (T) ;

Hien gia thu hoi thuan (NPV) ;
Suat thu hoi noi bo (IRR) ;
iem hoa von (BEP).

I - THI GIAN HOAN VON (T)

1- NH NGHA

Thi gian hoan von (T) la thi gian can thiet e tong hien
gia von thu hoi bang tong hien gia von au t.
Goi :
- Rt : tien thu hoi nam t;
- Ct : tien au t thc hien nam t.

T
T

PV (Rt) =
PV (Ct)

t=o
t=o
T
t=o

Rt (1 + i) - t =
t=o

Ct (1 + i)- t

2- PHNG PHAP TNH T

V du, tnh thi gian hoan von cho d an sau ay, vi lai suat chiet khau i = 12% nam:

Nam

Von au t

Lai rong

Khau hao

1
2
3
4
5

2,0
3,0
1,5
-

0,45
0,50
0,55
0,70
0,80

1,0
1,0
1,0
1,0
1,0

Lap bang tnh

STT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Ch tieu
Nam 1
Nam 2
He so chiet khau 0,8929
0,7972
Ct
2,0
3,0
PV(Ct)=(1)x(2)
1,7858
2,3916
Luy ke PV (Ct)
1,7858
4,1774
Rt = LR + KH
1,45
1,50
PV(Rt)=(1)x(5)
1,2947
1,1958
Luy ke PV(Rt)
1,12947 2,4905 3,5938

Nam 3 Nam 4
0,7118
0,6355
1,5
1,0677 5,2451 1,55
1,70
1,1033 1,0804
4,6742 5,655

Nam 5
0,5674
1,80
1,0213

II- HIEN GIA THU HOI THUAN NPV

(Net Present Value)
1- NH NGHA
Hien gia thu hoi thuan la hieu so cua tong hien gia thu hoi tnh cho ca
thi han au t, tr (-) i tong hien gia von au t, tc la tong hien
gia tien li sau khi a hoan u von.
2- PHNG PHAP TNH NPV

NPV =

NPV =

n
t=o

PV (Rt) _

Rt (1 + i) - t t=o

n
t=o
n
t=o

PV (Ct)

Ct (1 + i)- t

- Phng phap tnh NPV da tren dong tien

- Phng phap tnh NPV bang cach lap bang
V du,
Mot d an co von au t ban au (tai goc 0) bang 4,5 trieu USD, lai suat chiet khau i = 10%
nam, vi cac so lieu thu hoi (trieu USD) : nam 1 = 1,30; nam 2 = 1,35; nam 4 = 1,45; nam 5 =
1,00. Thi han au t n = 5 nam. Tnh NPV.

a) Phng phap tnh NPV da tren dong tien

0
- 4,5

1
1,3

2
1,35

4
1,4 1,45

5
1,00

NPV = -4,5 + 1,3(1+0,1)-1 + 1,35(1,1)-2 + 1,4(1,1)-3 + 1,45(1,1)-4 +(1,1)-5 = 0,4605 trieu USD.

III- SUAT THU HOI NOI BO IRR

(Internal Rate of Return)
1- Khai niem
Suat thu hoi noi bo cua mot d an la suat thu hoi do ban than d an
co the tao ra c, no cho biet ty le sinh li hoac kha nang sinh li
cua ban than d an o.
Ta biet, NPV la mot ham cua lai suat chiet khau i%, tc la NPV = f (i).
(Gia tr IRR chnh la gia tr cua ty suat chiet khau, ma tai o NPV = 0,
ngha la NPV = 0, tai o i = r = IRR) Suat thu hoi noi bo IRR chnh la lai
suat r%, ma neu dung no lam lai suat chiet khau th se lam cho NPV =
f (r) = 0. Luc nay ta co :
n

Rt (1 + r) - t =
t=o

Ct (1 + r) - t
t=o

LAP BANG TNH

Nam

Dong
tien

PV tai i%
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

-450 -450 -450 -450 -450 -450 -450

200

164

154

143

133

125

118

250

174

148

127

111

98

86

300

174

136

109

89

73

61

300

145

105

78

59

46

36

NPV

210

93

-58

-108 -149

PHNG PHAP TNH IRR THEO O TH VA BANG TNH

oi vi dong tien au t va thu hoi thng ch co mot lan oi dau Do o,
ham NPV = f (i) thng ch cat truc hoanh ch mot lan.

0
1
-450
200
Ta lap bang tnh :

2
250

NPV
(+)
210
0

- 149
NPV
(-)

3
300

4
300

IRR = r = 41%
10

20

30

40

50

60

70

i%

D AN NHA MAY MUOI

1- Doanh thu (v: trieu ong)

-

San lng nam au : 140.000 tan muoi

Moi nam ke tiep tang 12% nhng khong vt qua 190.000 tan
Gia ban 620.000/tan.
Ta co san lng d kien (SLDK) va san lng tieu thu thc te (SLTTTT) :

Nam
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
SLDK : 140.000 156.800 175.616 196.690 220.293 246.728 276.335
SLTTTT: 140.000 156.800 175.616 190.000 190.000 190.000 190.000
Tong DT: 86.800 97.216 108.882 117.800 117.800 117.800 117.800

2- Tra von vay au t

a) Ngan hang au t phat trien TP.HCM

- Chi ph nha xng : 10.250 trieu
- Thiet b phuc vu SX : 6.970 trieu
- Tong chi ph
: 17.220 trieu
- Cong ty au t 30% von CSH = 5.166 trieu.
- Cong ty vay ngan hang 70% = 12.054 trieu
- Lai suat 11%, an han tra lai nam au.
- Nam vay : 5 nam.

Ta co :

P = A 1 (1 + i)-t
i
The so ta co : 12.054 = 3,7A. Suy ra A = 3.258 trieu.

Nam

N ky

12.054

12.054

8.796

5.538

2.280

Lai vay

1.326

1.326

967.56

609.18

250.8

Cong n

1.932

2.960,44

2.648.82

2.029.2

Tra hang
nam
N Cky

3.258

3.258

3.258

2.280

12.054

8.796

5.538

2.280