Software Estimation

Measuring Work and Time

Why do we need to
Estimate?
Could Do Vs. Will Do
Initial Design Features List
Fully physical inventory system
7 interactable object classes
16 ~ 20 possible endings
Derivative dialogue trees based on player
character choice
4 playable characters
Actual Design Features List
Modular inventory system (reduced workload)
5 interactable object classes
10 endings
4 set dialogue trees for all NPCs
3 playable characters
 Develop Focused
Testing Focused
Build Delivery
Initial Timeline Expectation

Feature 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Inv. System

Interactable
Objects
Player
Routes
(Endings)
Dialogue
System
Playable
Characters
 Develop Focused
Testing Focused
Build Delivery
Actual Timeline

Feature 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Inv. System

Interactable
Objects
Player
Routes
(Endings)
Dialogue
System
Playable
Characters
What Happened?
• No leeway for unexpected issues

• No prior feasibility and estimations done on key features in the list

• Problematic expectations on developer capability

• Very little understanding of dependency and project architecture

• Vague systems documentation

What is Estimation?
Software Estimation

Definition : “The process by which estimates are Game development definition : “The process used to
created, in a work-per-person format, which details create the number of hours required to implement
how long it would take to create, maintain or update certain features or mechanics, with appropriate time
software” for development and testing”
Estimation Strategies
Software
Estimation
• Strategy Types :
● Feature-based Estimation
● Statistical Estimation
● Three-point Estimation

• Estimation types are based on

how estimates are generated, and
each has their own pros and cons
Terms Defined

Project Requirements : Features / Work Breakdown Structure Feature Scope : The scope of a
Elements that are ABSOLUTELY (WBS) : A list of all tasks that each certain feature, how much it should
required to complete the project project requirement will need for cover and what should be in it
completion
Feature Based
Estimation Strategies
“How long does it take to do something?”
Key Points
These strategies require a
Feature List composed from a
solid foundation of design
Documentation (E.g. GDD / TDD / Systems Documents
/ etc.)
Project requirements (E.g. Client requirements /
Milestone objectives)
The more detailed the list, the better the estimations

This type of estimation is best used in tandem with Kanban

type workflow breakdown structures

Major weakness of the strategy is that it relies on quality of

staff.
Planning Poker
Get estimates from key
people in the team
• Lead Dev Establish a min-max for Discuss with the team on
Create / Get features list
• Lead Artist each feature feature estimates
• Etc.

Agree on an estimate per Consolidate the list and Integrate WBS tasks into
feature generate a WBS the main workflow

Recommendation : Produce a Gantt chart from the WBS for visualization

Planning Poker
Pros Cons
• Thorough • Relies on the entire team to estimate

• Improves estimation skills of the entire team • Requires a lot of time

• Highly visible and relatively accurate

Three-Point Estimation
Strategies
“Optimistic, Pessimistic, Realistic”
Three Point Method
For each feature, set a Min-
Create / Get features list Avg-Max estimate for all
features
Create three timelines
• Minimum estimate For each feature, pick an
• Average estimate
estimate based on timeline
• Maximum estimate
requirements

Create a new timeline with

the chosen estimates and
From the validated Integrate the tasks from the
verify this timeline with
timeline, create the WBS WBS into the workflow
the project manager or
producer

Recommendation : Produce a scatter plot from the features list for visualization
Three Point Method
Pros Cons
• Fast • Relies on the ONE person to estimate

• Promotes quick revisions • High risk of low accuracy

• Good for obscure projects with large task

loads
Statistical Estimation
Strategies
“We did it before, how long did that take?”
Analogous Estimation
1. Create features list

2. Identify and collate a list of 3 – 5 projects like the one

currently being estimated

3. Compare current features from the feature list to

previously implemented features. Base estimations on the
length of time it took to complete the features in the
reference project.
1) Adjust estimate on differentiating factors (Scope
differences, manpower, timeframe, etc.)
2) Always aim for a large sample size to generate more
accurate estimations
3) Leave room in estimations for possible unforeseen
circumstances

4. Create WBS based on the estimations on all features

5. Integrate tasks from WBS to current workflow

Analogous Estimation
Pros Cons
• The most accurate of the methods discussed • Prone to edge-case misestimations

• The more it is used the more accurate it • Can only be used in medium to large scale
becomes contexts

• Can be automated with task tags / categories

 Estimation Exercises

Yes this is homework, technically…shush!

Create a feature list from any of your current
projects and, using one of the estimation
strategy types discussed, create a work
breakdown structure based on it.

The ideal output would be the features list and

the estimations of each feature in the list.

Next meeting : Evaluation of estimates.