Transportation

Chapter 14
 Freeway interchange of the 405
and 105 in Los Angeles, California
 Transportation Demand
• Factors
– Trip generation
– Trip distribution and trip scheduling
– Modal choice and route assignment
– Vehicle occupancy, and
– Trip frequency
• Equilibrium: quantity where private
marginal benefits = private marginal costs
 Transport demand and marginal
cost with increased road capacity
 Estimating Travel Demand
• Travel is derived from the benefits created
by the trip.
• Joyriding is hard to predict
• Commutes
• Life cycle patterns
 Modal choice
• Trip rate models: forecast average number
of trips per person based on national
survey data (least accurate, inexpensive)
• Aggregate simulation models: estimate
demand for trips based on aggregate
demand factors
• Disaggregate modal choice models: use
multinomial Logit to analyze individual
survey data (most accurate, costly)
 Marginal costs of travel
• Private costs
– Gas, oil, maintenance,
– Time costs,
– Ease of trip chaining
• Social costs
– Delays imposed on others
– Pollution
– Road damage
– Congestion
– Probability of accident
 Transportation Supply
• Highways:
– Parkinson’s Second Law applied to traffic:
Peak-hour traffic congestion rises to meet
maximum capacity.
– Because of negative externalities, the socially
optimal quantity of road usage is less than the
privately determined choice because drivers
are not paying the total cost of the trip
 Trip unit
• Standard measurement of quantity
• PCE: passenger car equivalents
– Number of passenger cars that correspond to a
particular type of vehicle under prevailing road and
traffic conditions
– Depends on traffic volume
• Single unit trucks are up to 1.37 trip units
• Combination trucks range up to 2.18 trip units
• Quantity: PCE per lane per hour
• Social cost estimation
Transport demand and
marginal cost
 Transport demand and marginal
cost with increased road capacity
 Congestion relief
• Limit parking
– Permits better use of land
– Doesn’t reduce congestion
• Parking spills over to adjacent neighborhoods
• Weak correlation between parking and congestion:
– Parking policies do not affect quantity of drive-through
traffic
– Workers who come early or stay late are penalized
• Fewer parking spaces decreases punctuality and
creates more cruising
 Gasoline taxes
• In 2000, combined federal/state gasoline
taxes in US averaged 40¢ per gallon;
average car ran 20 miles on a gallon of
gas: pseudo toll is of 2¢ per mile
• Calculated size of externality per rush-
hour trip in 1989: 10 ¢ to 23 ¢
• Gasoline taxes control urban sprawl
• Ineffective tool for decreasing congestion
• High incidence on rural commuters
 Variable tolls
• Optimal toll varies with traffic density
• Drivers should know level of toll and have
alternative route available
• Regressive tax born by workers with strict
time clocks
– Electronic road pricing
– Smart cards