PRE THESIS SEMINAR

for
Degree of Doctor of Philosophy In Engineering
on

Flood Prediction on River Daya and River Bhargavi using

Artificial Neural Network

by
Binaya Kumar Panigrahi
Under the Supervision of
Prof(Dr.) Tushar Kumar Nath
Department of Civil Engineering
INDIRA GANDHI INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, Sarang
&
Prof (Dr.) Manas Ranjan Senapati
Department of Computer Science and Engineering
VSSUT, Burla
  Introduction
 Components of
Flood Forecasting
OVERVIEW & early system
warnings
 Motivation
 Objectives
 Proposed methods
 Data Set with 14
features
 Finding and
Analysis
 Conclusions and
future work
 INTRODUCTION

What is Flood ?

 A flood is an outpouring of water beyond its ordinary cutoff points or water

spreading out over a region that isn't consistently secured by water.

 Floods can also occur in rivers when the flow rate exceeds the capacity of the river
channel, particularly at bends or meanders in the waterway. Floods often cause
damage to homes and businesses if they are in the natural flood plains of rivers.
 What is Flood forecasting ?

• Flood forecasting is the use of forecasted precipitation and streamflow data in rainfall-runoff
and streamflow routing models to forecast flow rates and water levels for periods ranging
from a few hours to days ahead, depending on the size of the watershed or river basin. Flood
forecasting can also make use of forecasts of precipitation in an attempt to extend the lead-
time available.

• It is an important component of flood warning, where the distinction between the two is that the
outcome of flood forecasting is a set of forecast time-profiles of channel flows or river levels at
various locations, while "flood warning" is the task of making use of these forecasts to tell
decisions on warnings of floods.
 KEY POINTS

• Flooding prompts various dangers, with outcomes including danger to human life, unsettling
influence of transport and correspondence systems, harm to structures and foundation, and the loss
of farming harvests. In this way, aversion and security strategies are necessitated that expect to
lessen the powerlessness of individuals and open and private property.
• The fuse of quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) in flood warning frameworks has
been recognized to assume a key job, considering an expansion of the lead-time of the stream
gauge, which may empower an all the more opportune execution of flood control.
• Flood forecasting and prediction capabilities evolved slowly during the 1970s and 1980s.
However, recent technological advances have had a major impact on forecasting methodologies.
• The overflow of rain, process speaks to a complex nonlinear issue and there are a few ways
to deal with it. Generally, hydrological reenactment displaying frameworks are arranged
into three fundamental gatherings, to be specific, experimental discovery lumped calculated
and conveyed physically-based models
  The Daya River starts as a branch of the Kuakhai River at Saradeipur (near Badahati) in Odisha state
in India. It is joined by the Malaguni River below Golabai and flows
through Khordha and Puri districts before emptying into the north-eastern corner of Chilika Lake, 37
kilometres (23 mi) from its origin.

RiverDaya  The historically important Dhauli hills are located on the banks of the Daya River, 8 kilometres south
of Bhubaneswar. It is a hill with vast open space adjoining it, and has major edicts of
Ashoka engraved on a mass of rock, by the side of the road leading to the summit of the hill.Dhauli
hill is presumed to be the area where Kalinga War was fought.
  Bhargavi River flows across Odisha, India. It forms the Mahanadi–Kuakhai distributary system
branching off from the Kuakhai River and draining into Chilka Lake.

 A branch of the Kuakhai River meets the Bay of Bengal after breaking up into numerous
Bhargavi distributaries in the last 4.0 kilometres (2.5 mi) of its course. There are four main branches all
branching off from the left bank: Kanchi, the East Kania, the Naya Nadi and the South Kanchi (which
River drains into Sar Lake). By various channels the first three are interconnected and finally join the Suna
Munhi River, which flows into Bali Harchandi and ultimately drains to the Bay of Bengal via the
mouth of Chilika.
Components of Flood Forecasting & early system warnings

Data Collection Transmission and Forecasts

Reception

Emergency
Review Dissemination
Response
  Among all the disasters that occur in India, flood
commonly occurs due to irregularity in Monsoon and
many different reason.
 Highest death is reported each year because of annual
floods.
 Flood forecasting and prediction capabilities can foresee
the danger of flooding so that warnings of flood can be
issued and we can permit the evacuation of populations
MOTIVATION threatened by rising water levels.
 Real-time flood forecasting at regional area can be done
within seconds by using the technology of artificial
neural network.
 Effective real-time flood forecasting models could be
useful for early warning and disaster prevention.
Objective

Water flow data of Daya and Bhargavi River must be taken for classification and
subsequently predicting the water flow in both the rivers in a particular interval using
well known data mining technique like the artificial neural network (ANN), Particle
Swarm Optimization, Genetic Algorithm etc.

The results obtained from various technique will then be analyzed to find out the
technique(s) giving the best result.

To warn the people residing down stream well in advance, if there is any possibility of
flash flood there by saving precious lives and valuables.
PROPOSED METHOD

Method Used

ANN C-FLANN

Harmony
DE
Search
MLP LLRBFNN

Whale
RBFNN
Optimization
 Artificial neural network(ANN)
 Artificial neural networks (ANN) frameworks are
figuring frameworks that are enlivened by, yet not
indistinguishable from, natural neural systems that
establish creature brain. Such frameworks "learn" to
perform assignments by thinking about models, for
the most part without being customized with task-
explicit rules.

 In ANN model, the "signal" at an association is a

genuine number, and the yield of every neuron is
processed by some non-direct function of the whole
of its data sources. The associations are called edges.

 An artificial neuron that receives a signal then

processes it and can signal neurons connected to it.
 Multilayer Perceptron

Figure : Typical Artificial Neural Network

A multilayer perceptron, shown above, is an artificial neural network comprising of an input layer of
neurons, at least one or more than one hidden layers and a final layer called output layer. The neurons
in the input layer receive the input, computation is done at the hidden layer and the output layer makes
decision or prediction about the input.
 Radial Basis Functional Neural Network

Figure : Typical Radial Basis Functional Neural Network

A radial basis functional neural network (RBFNN) transforms the input signal into another form,
which can be then feed into the network to get linear separability. RBFNN is made out of input,
hidden, and output layers. RBFNN is carefully constrained to have precisely one hidden layer. We
call this shrouded layer as highlight vector.
 Local Linear Radial Basis Functional Neural Network

Figure. Typical Local Linear Radial Basis Functional Neural Network

The distinction between the LLRBFN and the traditional Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) is
association loads between the hidden layer and the output layer which are supplanted by a nearby direct model
in the LLRBFNN. An adjusted Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with tracker particles is presented for
preparing the LLRBFN.
 Whale Optimization

Figure: Typical Whale optimization

Optimization of artificial neural networks can be done with Meta-heuristic optimization algorithms.
These algorithms are very popular because of their simple concept and ease of implementation.

There is no need of gradient information and bypassing local optima can be carried out by employing
meta-heuristic algorithms in our model for optimization.
 Cascaded Functional Link Artificial Neural Network

FL-1 FL-2 ∑

Learning
Algorithm

Figure: Cascaded FLANN Model

 The network begins with only input and output neurons. During the training process, neurons are selected
from a pool of candidates and added to the hidden layer.Cascaded FLANN model is built by cascading two
FLANN structures in series.

 This gives additional nonlinearity to the overall model which in result provides output closer to the initial
data.
 Harmony Search
Harmony search is one of the Meta heuristic algorithms inspired by procedure of jazz musicians to create a perfect
harmony. A musician strives to create a music piece with perfect harmony. Similarly, an optimized solution should always
be the best under given objectives and limited by constraints and is the reason for choosing it for training C-FLANN. Each
musician corresponds to a unique decision variable; musical instrument’s pitch range corresponds to decision variables’
value range. Musical harmony at certain time corresponds to optimized solution at any particular iteration and the
objective function corresponds to the audience’s aesthetics.

Any of the three rules given below can be used to find better Harmony using combinations of pitches :
 play any lone pitch from the memory;
 play a neighboring pitch of lone pitch from the memory;
 play an arbitrary pitch from the possible range.

This procedure mimics each changeable assortment of the algorithm.

Likewise, it should follow any of the three rules below:
 choose one value from the HS memory;
 choose a neighboring value from the HS memory;
 choose an arbitrary value from the likely value range.
 The three rules are efficiently directed using two necessary parameters:
 harmony memory bearing in mind rate (HMCR) and pitch adjusting rate (PAR).
 Differential Evolution (DE)

Initialization Mutation Recombination Selection

Figure : Steps involved in Differential Evolution Steps involved in Differential Evolution

• In transformative calculation, differential evolution (DE) is a strategy that enhances an issue by iteratively
attempting to improve a competitor arrangement concerning a given proportion of value.

• DE streamlines an issue by keeping up a populace of up-and-comer arrangements and making new applicant
arrangements by consolidating existing ones as indicated by its straightforward formulae, and afterward keeping
whichever competitor arrangement has the best score or wellness on the advancement issue within reach.
INFORMATION AND DATA
 FINDING AND ANALYSIS
Rate of training 0.5
Size of population 6
Ratio for Cross over 0.6
Number of iterations 100
Lower bound 0.1
Upper bound 1.0
Dimension(no. of variables) in DE and HARMONY SEARCH 5
Mutation ratio 0.5
Harmony memory size(HMS) 15
Harmony memory consideration rate(HMCR) 0.95
Pitch adjustment rate(PAR) 0.3
Bandwidth vector 0.6

Table : Preliminary parameter settings of different algorithms

It was observed that noticeable change takes place with respect to expected outcome and their respective
error after the data set is entered in a series into the network.
 14 Features of Data Set

1.Gauge(m) 8. Rainfall R/F(mm)

2. Area(sqm)
3. Velocity(m/s)
4. Discharge (cumec)
5. Total Suspended Solids: T.S.S/lit(gm)
6. Suspended Solids S.S/lit(gm)
7. Deposited solids D.S/lit(gm)
9. Av. Temp(C)
10. Pressure(hpa)
11. Av. Wind (Km/h)
12. Suspended Solids: S.S/day
13. Deposited solidsD.S/day
14. Total Suspended Solids: TSS/day
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) decides the achievement of the network

The following formula is used to calculate RMSE.

RMSE

where is the actual output.

is the predicted outcome.

n is the sum total of data sample

Following formula is applied to calculate the MAPE value

Representation Model Findings
 Multilayer Perceptron Output

Figure : Testing phase of MLP of river DAYA Figure : Testing phase of MLP of river BHARGAVI
 Radial Basis Functional Neural Network

Figure : Testing phase of RBFNN of river DAYA Figure : Testing phase of RBFNN of river BHARGAVI
 Local Linear Radial Basis Functional Neural
Network

Figure: Testing phase of LLRBFNN of river DAYA Figure: Testing phase of LLRBFNN of river BHARGAVI
 CFLANN-Harmony search for river DAYA

Actual Vs Predicted during testing Actual Vs Predicted during testing

1 1
predicted predicted
0.9 actual 0.9 actual

0.8 0.8

0.7 0.7
Discharge

Discharge
0.6 0.6

0.5 0.5

0.4 0.4

0.3 0.3

0.2 0.2

0.1 0.1
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
No of iterations No of iterations

Figure 1 : Comparison of discharge Values for 1 week Figure 2 : Comparison of discharge values for 2 weeks
ahead using CFLANN-harmony search for river Daya ahead using CFLANN-harmony search for river Daya
 CFLANN-DE for river DAYA

Actual Vs Predicted during testing Actual Vs Predicted during testing

1 1
predicted predicted
0.9 actual 0.9 actual

0.8 0.8

0.7 0.7
Discharge

Discharge
0.6 0.6

0.5 0.5

0.4 0.4

0.3 0.3

0.2 0.2

0.1 0.1
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
No of iterations No of iterations

Figure: Comparison of discharge for 1 week Figure:ahead using C-FLANN-DE for river
ahead using CFLANN-DE for river Daya Daya
 CFLANN-Harmony search for river BHARGAVI

Actual Vs Predicted during testing Actual Vs Predicted during testing

0.5 0.5
predicted predicted
0.45 actual 0.45 actual

0.4 0.4

0.35 0.35
Discharge

Discharge
0.3 0.3

0.25 0.25

0.2 0.2

0.15 0.15

0.1 0.1
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
No of iterations No of iterations

Figure:Comparison of discharge values for 1 week Figure:Comparison of discharge Values for 2

ahead using CFLANN-harmony search for river weeks ahead using CFLANN-harmony
Bhargavi search for river Bhargavi
 CFLANN-DE for river BHARGAVI

Actual Vs Predicted during testing Actual Vs Predicted during testing

0.5 0.5
predicted predicted
0.45 actual 0.45 actual

0.4 0.4

0.35 0.35
Discharge

Discharge
0.3 0.3

0.25 0.25

0.2 0.2

0.15 0.15

0.1 0.1
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
No of iterations No of iterations

Figure: Comparison of TSS/day Values for 1 day Figure: Comparison of TSS/day values for 1
ahead using CFLANN-DE for river Bhargavi week ahead using CFLANN-DE for river
Bhargavi
Comparative Performance of various techniques
Table 1 : Comparison of different techniques applied to river Daya dataset

ANN Techniques Structure Time(in sec) RMSE MAPE

MLP Back propagation 7-3-1 14.4736 0.0307 0.4740

RBFNN Back propagation 7-3-1 13.3324 0.0219 0.335

RBFNN Whale 7-3-1 31.1866 0.0448 0.4689

LLRBFNN Back propagation 7-7-1 28.7070 0.0109 0.2027

Table-2 The comparative performance between MLP, RBFNN & LLRBFNN model
ANN Techniques Structure Time(in sec) RMSE MAPE

MLP Back propagation 7-3-1 15.3216 0.0435 0.5243

RBFNN Back propagation 7-3-1 13.7832 0.0321 0.3758

RBFNN Whale 7-3-1 36.1278 0.0475 0.4732

LLRBFNN Back propagation 7-7-1 27.073 0.0206 0.2874

 Analysis on the river DAYA

9
8
7
6
5 Time taken for training
4 in sec
3 RMSE value during test-
ing
2
MAPE
1
0
-HS -DE M
LP
FNN
N NN
N RB
FLA LA
C CF
 Analysis on the river Bhargavi

9
8
7
6
5
4 Time taken for training
in sec
3 RMSE value during
2 MAPE
1
0
-HS -DE M
LP
FNN
A NN NN
RB
L LA
CF C F
 Conclusions

It is aimed to foretell flood along the rivers “Daya” and “Bhargavi” using different artificial neural networks.
The neural network models i.e. MLP, RBFNN, LLRBFNN and ANN with whale optimization were
constructed to forecast discharge of water for “Daya” and “Bhargavi”, two rivers in India. The models were
tested on the discharge of water from river “Daya” and “Bhargavi”. The performance of the different models
has been compared with the desired output in the testing phase.

The three models were compared on the basis of amount of time (in sec), Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)
and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE).

From the research it is found that Harmony search based Cascade FLANN architecture provide more precise
output than the MLP, RBFNN and Cascade –DE technique
Thank You!