ይዘት

 ዘርፉ ያለበት ቁመናና

 የንፅፅር ትንተና (ኬንያ: ታንዛኒያ: ግብፅ: ቱርክ: ኮሪያ: ሲንጋፖር፡ቻይና)

 ቁልፍ ተግዳሮቶች
 ጥሩ ተሞክሮዎች፡ አለማቀፍ አዝማሚያዎችና የመፍትሄ ጥቆማ

OBJECTIVES
1. Creating sense of urgency by pinpointing the major problems currently pluaging
the construction & engineering sector
2. Demonstrate the success trend of other countries that can be easily adopted to
Ethiopia
 መግቢያ
የ ኮ ን ስ ት ራ ክ ሽ ን አ ስ ፈ ላ ጊ ነ ት ( Economical-Social-Environmental-Poletical benifit) ማኑፋክቸሪንግ ቱሪዝም ትራንስፖርት
• ለመጓጓዣ (አባይ ድልድይ- አዋሽሃራ ባቡር መንገድ)
• ለሃይል (ጣና-በለስና ግራንድ-አባይ) ግብርና

• ለመሰኖ (አስዋን 1960-1968) መስኖ ሃይድሮፓወር ንፁህ መጠጥ ውሃ

 ለቱሪዝምና ወታደራዊ አቅም መገንቢያ

(Panama -8k mile-NY to SanFran:1904/14) ኮንስትራክሽን (design-procurement-build-management)
Sectrorial relationship

GERDP ጣና በለስ hydropower

አባይ (ህዳሴ) ድልድይ (lake-Tana Intake) አዋሽ-ሃራ ባቡር

የግብፅ መስኖ

ቶዶር ሮዝቤልት Panama 1914

(1901-09) 1
 ዘርፉ ያለበት ቁመና (Conceptual Framework: Input-Process-Output-Outcome-Impact)
Environmental Factors [PESTLE]
Political & Regulatory
Inputs (Fuel) Social & Cultural

Raw material Human Capital: Knowledge & Skill (certified on global standard) Economic & Industrial

(cement, rebar, chemicals) Technical [Global]

Technology (Infrastructure, Machineries & Applications)
Labor
Finance Organizational capital (ISO certified organizations)
(Local & FX)

Process (/Engine) Service, Manufacturing & Agriculture Sectors

Const. Sector
• Design-PM activities & standards
• Permit approval & Gov.framework
• Quality Assurance (Grading & ISO)
Governmental Output Outcome Impact
• Procurement activities & standards
Cost-time-Quality • Service Quality • Participant working
• No of procedures & Response time culture (corruption)
(revenue, jobs, service
(product-Quality)
• Investment & collaboration policy years) • Acceptancy by Donors
• Public Enterprise Law & Inovation  No of employee engaged • & Society Image
Productivity Skill & revenue
policy & practice (Process, product:  No of defect (Complain, gain by • Global market share
e-procurement, e-machine, e-track, ERP) injury, dispute...) performer firm • Rate of Standard
publication 4
1ኛ ብክነት የተንሰራፋበት ፕሮጀክት ማናጅመንት [output]
ከውል ጊዜ [ዋጋ] የበለጠው በፐርሰንት
ግዙፍ ፕሮጀክቶች አፈ ፃፀም 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200%

• Koyisha & GERDP >100% time overrun ውሃ 8.27 144.60%175.8%

1-year delay (2 turbine) equivalent to loss of 200 million
USD (1/2 million jobs)

መንገድ 42.1% 99.50% 26.14

መካከለኛ ፕሮጀክቶች አፈ ፃፀም
Time Performance procurement+design+construction)
(

• 134% delay (Key cause of inflation) ህንፃ 16.4%

2.06 160.70%

Cost Performance
ኢንዱስትሪ ደረጃ 106.5%134.2% 36.48
• >100% (36 billion ETB jump to 75 billion)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Cost overrun Time overrun የውል ዋጋ (ቢልዮን ብር)

Keniya (56% time overrun)፣Egypt (50% time overrun)
Source: Construction Sector Transparency Initiative Ethiopia 2016 6
2ኛ ያልተመጣጠነ ምዋለንዋይ ፍሰትና የስራ እድል [output &
outcome] 700,000,000,000
Gross Value Added in 2016 Basic price 614
ከሌሎች ኢንዱስትሪ አንፃር (2017GC) 600,000,000,000
580
500,000,000,000
440 386

400,000,000,000 287
GDP: 20% [1/2 agriculture] 300,000,000,000
84
200,000,000,000 57 116

100,000,000,000

-
Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Services

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: doing business Ethiopia, 2019

የስራ እድል:
ግብርና (66%) ኮንስትራክሽን (6%)
2.2 ሚሊዮን (1/11 agriculture)

Source: World Bank's World Development Indicators database 2019

2ኛ ያልተመጣጠነ ምዋለንዋይ ፍሰትና የስራ እድል ... [ o u t p u t & outcome]
2 12 22 32 42
ከሌሎች አገራት አንፃር 20
8
GDP share (%) [world, 8
GDG Share (20% ለ 6 % ) BCG 2016]
6
6
44
20
Investment share of GDP
(%) [world, Mckinsey 35
የካፒታል በጀት ድርሻ (GFCF 44 % ለ 18 % ) 2017]
18
60-65% (>100 ቢሊዮን) 13

6
10
Job share (%) [world
Mckinsey, 2017] 10
8
የስራ እድል (6 % vs 8 %) 7

World Egypt Tanzanya Kenya Ethiopia

2
3ኛ ያልተመጣጠነ ምዋለንዋይ ፍሰትና ያበረከተው መሰረተ ልማት [outcome]
5 25 45 65 85 105

የንፁህ መጠጥ ውሃ (2015): basic access 39%, 39

coverage 55.7% @2020 Basic drinking water 58
supply coverage, 2015
99

የኢነርጂ ሽፋን (2017) : 44% 44

Electricty Coverage (Ken 55
2017, ET 2016)
100

መስኖ ተጠቃሚ (2020): 8% out of 15-mil. hec.

11
cultivated land share of cultivated land
with Irrigation, % (2009) 29

77

መኖሪያ አቅርቦ (affordable housing <50% supply)

ትራንስፖርት: 902km vs 5500 railway Egypt Kenya Eth

3
4ኛ ከተቋም ግንባታ (አለማቀፍ አሰራርን መሰረት ያደረጉ ድርጅቶች ያለማፍራት) [input]
 የድርጅቶች አቅም
ISO Certified: 9001; 2008 & 2015
source: Iso survey (ISO.Org)

ግብፅ (45 to 65)

Electricity supply Water supply Eng. services Construction
ኬኒያ (4 to 18) Sector
2011 2019 2011 2019 2011 2019 2011 2019
ታንዛኒያ (0 to 5) Egypt 3 4 4 5 45 92 45 65
Ethiopia - - - - 1 3 - -
Kenya 4 4 13 1 7 26 4 18
አገራችን በፌደራል መንግስት ከተመዘገቡ
Korea 19 6 13 2 465 175 4845 785
• 7728 የኮንስትራክሽን Tanzania 0 0 0 2 1 0 5
ግንባታ ተቋራጮች Singapore 3 3 1 1 225 168 566 197
• 192 ደረጃ-1
Thailand 56 130 15 69 84 202 185 315
Turkey 16 85 8 10 184 239 279 333
4ኛ ከተቋም ግንባታ አንፃር (Impact/Remittance)....
Remittance (2017) 11
• Egypt 20-billion USD - Ethiopia Remitamce share in GDP (%) 10.51

0.8 - Kenya 2-billion USD 9

Egypt, Arab Rep. Ethiopia Kenya
Tanzania
አለማቀፍ የገበያ ድርሻ 7 6.41
የግብፅ ይሳውሪስ የተባለ ተቋራጭ
[Orascom construction Industry-EPC) 5 2.48
established at 1938 & owned by Onsi 4.24 3.23
Sawiris
3 2.33
• 2.4billion USD በአመት በማግኘ በ2009
በForbes:785/2000 ደረጃ 2.34 0.76
1 1.32
• 3.6 billion usd @2017 [30% revenue 0.48
0.08 0.78
abroad] -1
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019
Source: World Bank's World Development Indicators database 2019

10
5ኛ ከሙያተኛ ግንባታ አንፃር (አለማቀፍ ተወዳዳሪ ዜጋ) [input]
 የኮንስትራክሽን ባለሙያ (አለማቀፍ ደረጃ) Credential Holder May-2014 Nov-15 Nov-16
May-
2019
May-2020 Growth
rate
Project Management Professional (PMP) 618,933 686,641 745,081 911,375 1,037,653 11%
1. Global PMP Certified (May 2014 to 2019)
Source: https: //certification.pmi.org/registry.aspx Program Management Professional (PgMP) 1,049 1,438 1,760 2,598 2,907 30%

2. No of Credintial holder until 2016 Scheduling Professional (PMI-SP) 1,185 1,435 1,597 1,939 2,103 13%
→ USA-294ሽ China-125ሽ Certified Associate in Project Management
25,672 30,032 32,608 38,171 42,647 11%
(CAPM)
→ ህንድ-40ሽ ኮሪያ-12ሽ ሲንጋፖር-10ሽ
Risk Management Professional (RMP) 2,746 3,418 3,831 5,179 5,715 18%
3. PMI 2016 No of professional having Agile Certified Practitioner (PMI-ACP) 5,771 10,141 13,712 26,696 35,182 85%
active credential Portfolio Management Professional (PfMP) 274 394 686 823 40%
→ ግብፅ (349-PMP; 8-PMI-SP, 17-PMI-RMP)
Active Professional in Business Analysis (PMI-
→ ኬኒያ (9) ታንዛኒያ(2) ኢትዮጵያ (1-PMP) 510 1,077 3,292 4,159 143%
PBA)

Credential Type ግብፅ ኬኒያ ታንዛኒያ ኢትዮጵያ ሲንጋፖር ቻይና ኮሪያ ቱርክ
Project Management Professional (PMP) 349 9 2 1 196 2582 142 62
Program Management Professional (PgMP) 2 2
Scheduling Professional (PMI-SP) 8 1
Certified Associate in Project Management (CAPM) 2 9 2 2 1
Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) 17 5 1
Agile Certified Practitioner (PMI-ACP) 2 9 1 1
Portfolio Management Professional (PfMP) 1
Active Professional in Business Analysis (PMI-PBA) 1 2 1 16
 5ኛ ከሙያተኛ ግንባታ አንፃር (አለማቀፍ ተወዳዳሪ ዜጋ) [input].... 700
600

Knowledge & Innovation Development Indicators... 500

400

Egypt-Ethiopia-Kenya-Tanzania (Source: Worldbank Database 2020) 300

200
100

“የፈጠራ ኢንዱስትሪን ማስፋፋት 0

1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016

US Anual patent-applcation (thousand): source: Kotter

2014, Accelerator

/ Publication: 13,300- 2,000- 1,300- 600 Patent applied: 997- 13- 244- 25
number of scientific and engineering articles published 1000 997
2150 14000 900
13,327 718
1950 800
12000
1750
1,994
700 Patent applications, residents
9,172 10000 600
428
1550
1350 500
8000
1150 1,027 400
4,548 1,247 244
6000 300
950 137
949 200
750 4000
13 34 1 25
555 100
550 1 18
312
350 603
537
2000 0
Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania
150 0
2003 2005 2013 2015 2016 2018

Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Egypt 19

6ኛ ከአሰራር ቅልጥፍና/ሃብት አጠቃቀም (out put at Macro economic level)....
  የሰራተኛ ምርታማነት እድገት (1995-2015) Source: Boston Consulting
Group, 2016. Shaping
Construction Industry

ስኬታማ አገሮች ዝቅተኛ ምርታማ

• ሲንጋፖር 1.5 • -ቱርክ 3.5 • ብራዚል -ve 1.2
• ግብፅ & ህንድ • ቻይና 6.7 • ኢትዮጵያ (Poor data record)

2.5 0.7(%)
ለኢኮኖሚ ዕድገቱ አስተዋጽኦ ያደረጉ ግብዓቶች ድርሻ
Capital
TFP 2.1
ምርታማነትና ኢኮኖሚ እድገት Labour
Human capital0.5 2.6
• የሰራተኛ ምርታማነትና
1.7
TFP 5.2
1.7
• ከፍተኛ እድገት በተጠራቀመ 1.1
1997-2004 2004-2017
ሃብት
Source: doing business Ethiopia, 2019 8
6ኛ ከአሰራር ቅልጥፍና/ሃብት አጠቃቀም (process).... 47
46
Process efficiency (2016) 42
Time required to start a business (days)

42.5
• Highest no of days to 38
34
35
32
36

start business & Higest 30

26 23
27.5

no procedures 22
18 11.5
14
Source: World bank Database 2020 10
Egypt, Arab Rep. Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania
2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2016 2017 2018
Resource Utilization/Strategy
•Machinery Utilization No of Procedures
4.0
7
(<60% utilization) 14
•Portfolio selection & 29
16.5
Management [Machinery no day to start business 22
35
tracking & integration across
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
projects & companies] Tanzania Egypt Kenya Eth 11
6ኛ ከግዥ አሰራር ምቹነት (process)
Procurement (2016) 8

1. Private inclusive e-procurement law (age) 8

investment law (PPP) 7

0
2. Transparency
ENABLING tools (e- 11

procurement law ) public-private-procurement Law (age; Egypt

22
boot 1999, Tanz 2010, Kenya 2013)
3. Proper Implimentation of 8

0
existing proclamation
[649/2009, SBD 2011] 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Source: Tanzania Egypt Kenya Eth

World bank Database 2020
WB 2014: Public Procurement Evaluation, 2014 12
 የችግሮች መነሻ
የዘርፉ በሃሪያት (መለዮዎች)
1. ተፈጥሯዊ (structural, Inherited)
1. Horizontal (Geographical) fragmentation: Project activities take place in dispersed locations
2. Vertical fragmentation: Performed by a collation of d/nt sub-sectors, with different goals taking
long time & several procedures to deliver value
3. Success driven by inputs from manufact. sector

3. Non-linear activities:
demand multi-discipline
experts while investment
return is backloaded
4. Difficult to immediately
recognize service quality
5. Uncertainties: vulnerable
to adverse weather
6. Temporary work force
(motive)
3
የችግሮች መዘዝና የመነሻ አምዶች
የችግሮች መዘዝ Manufacturing Agriculture Tourism Transport
• አስቻይ/መጋቢ (fuel & engine)
እድገትን የሚገታ
Hydropower Irrigation Water supply Road & Railway
• የዘርፉ ግብአቶች የውጭ ምንዛሬ
ጥገኛ መሆኑ ከችግር አዙሪት Construction Industry
እንዳንወጣ
የችግሮች የመነሻ አምዶች
Alignment Strategy
እንደመልካም እድል፡ ዘርፉ Monitor Time Estimation
Org & Project
ላይ የ1% ብቻ መሻሻል 20 ሽ Performance
በላይ ለሚሆኑ ዜጎች የስራ Control
Resource PM Standards &
እድል ከመፍጠሩ ባሻገር ፈርጀ Performance
Estimation PM Discipline
ብዙ ጠቀሜታ ይኖረዋል
M&C Development
Planning
Strategy/Sectorial