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  • Global Market Outlook 2024

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    Harry lam
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    The document provides an outlook for the global market in 2024. It identifies two major issues as geopolitical tensions increasing costs and high inflation. Global GDP dropped in 2020 but has returned to trend while energy prices have quadrupled in two years. Inflation has hit 10% in some countries as central banks raise interest rates, with the US Federal Reserve raising rates to 5.5% to tackle 3.5% inflation. The outlook notes concerns around the US presidential election, supply chains, and setbacks at TSMC factories. The Chinese market faces impacts from US trade restrictions and a slowing property sector, while Hong Kong sees workforce decreases. Overall the document stresses the need for portfolio diversification and stress testing given market

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    The document provides an outlook for the global market in 2024. It identifies two major issues as geopolitical tensions increasing costs and high inflation. Global GDP dropped in 2020 but has returned to trend while energy prices have quadrupled in two years. Inflation has hit 10% in some countries as central banks raise interest rates, with the US Federal Reserve raising rates to 5.5% to tackle 3.5% inflation. The outlook notes concerns around the US presidential election, supply chains, and setbacks at TSMC factories. The Chinese market faces impacts from US trade restrictions and a slowing property sector, while Hong Kong sees workforce decreases. Overall the document stresses the need for portfolio diversification and stress testing given market

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    4 views12 pages

    Global Market Outlook 2024

    Uploaded by

    Harry lam
    The document provides an outlook for the global market in 2024. It identifies two major issues as geopolitical tensions increasing costs and high inflation. Global GDP dropped in 2020 but has returned to trend while energy prices have quadrupled in two years. Inflation has hit 10% in some countries as central banks raise interest rates, with the US Federal Reserve raising rates to 5.5% to tackle 3.5% inflation. The outlook notes concerns around the US presidential election, supply chains, and setbacks at TSMC factories. The Chinese market faces impacts from US trade restrictions and a slowing property sector, while Hong Kong sees workforce decreases. Overall the document stresses the need for portfolio diversification and stress testing given market

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 12

    Market

    Outlook 2024
    Presented by: Harrison Lam
    1 Feb 2024
    Introduction Global GDP in US$ (Trillions)

    Global GDP dropped significantly in 2020


    Returned to the general trend
    Two of the biggest issues:
    1. Geopolitical tension and conflicts
    • Tension between China and US
    • Russia invaded Ukraine
    2. High inflation and interest rates
    • Energy prices increase transportation costs
    • Increased policy rates to tackle inflation

    Source: The World Bank


    Global Energy Price Index
    Source: FRED Economic Data, IMF

    • Quadrupled within 2 years

    Inflation by Country
    Source: Financial Times, Refinitiv

    • UK and EU affected the most


    • Inflation reached 10%
    Fed Funds Interest Rate

    US
    Market
    Source: Trading Economics, Federal Reserve

    • 0.5% (Feb 2022) -> 5.5%

    • Inflation at 3.5%
    • Rate cuts likely
    Fed Funds Interest Rate

    US
    Market
    Source: Trading Economics, Federal Reserve

    • 0.5% (Feb 2022) -> 5.5%

    • Inflation at 3.5%
    • Rate cuts likely
    US Consumer Spending US Personal Savings Rate

    Source: Trading Economics, US Bureau of Economic Analysis


    Potential Issues

    • Presidential election causing uncertainty


    • Supply chain disruptions
    • Setbacks in TSMC overseas factories

    Source: CNBC (2021)


    Chinese Market

    Trade restrictions on China Property is over 1/3 of GDP Lower reserve requirements
    by allies of US
    US$114 billion in defaults Credit support for developers
    Sizeable impact especially Lower down payment
    on technology stocks GDP growth 6.7% -> 3% requirements
    (World Bank)
    • 56% decrease in IPOs
    • Market confidence improving
    • High demand for corporate financing
    • Relaxed listing requirements

    Total Labour Force HK (millions)

    • Movement of local workforce


    • -190k between 2019 and 2022
    Impacts and Concerns

    • Poor performance in markets


    • Portfolio diversification and the
    correlation breakdown
    • Tools e.g. stress testing, scenario analysis

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