Pakistan: Building

Climate Resilience
Kulsum Ahmed
Presentation for the National Planning Commission
Islamabad, February 28, 2018
Pakistan at 70 years: Climate and
Environment
 What does the data show?
 A menu of possible approaches
 Building climate resilience: process and prioritization
 Government’s role in generating climate solutions
 Financing
 Summary
Pakistan: Climate data

 CO2 emissions per capita are low, but will increase with coal power
 0.896 metric tons /capita (2014) vs
 1.4 metric tons/capita for South Asian countries group
 1.4 metric tons/capita for lower middle-income countries group
 4.97 metric tons/capita for world

 High vulnerability to climate change impacts

 Among top ten most climate-affected countries of the world (Germanwatch’s
Global Climate Risk Index 2015)
Pakistan: Some Climate Impacts

 Major floods in 2010 (20% land area under water) and 2012
 The last five floods (2010-2014) have resulted in monetary losses of over US$ 18 billion
with 38.12 million people affected, 3.45 million houses damaged and 10.63 million acres
of crops destroyed (INDC)
 2010 floods in Pakistan affected 4.5 million workers, two-thirds of whom were employed
in agriculture, and over 70 percent of farmers lost more than half of their expected
income (FAO)
 Agricultural sector growth dropped from 3.5% to 0.2% between 2009 and 2010 due to
2010 flood (FAO)
 133 extreme weather events between 1996-2015 (Germanwatch’s Climate Risk
Index 2015)
 Extreme climate events between 1994 - 2013 have resulted in an average annual
economic loss of almost US$ 4 billion (NDMA)
 1200 people died in Karachi during unprecedented heat wave in 2015 (Pak INDC)
Pakistan: Some Climate Projections

 Floods and droughts, but variation in glacier melt and Karakoram anomaly (Nathan
Forsythe, Hayley J. Fowler, Xiao-Feng Li, Stephen Blenkinsop, David
Pritchard. Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric
circulation variability. Nature Climate Change, 2017; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3361)
 Increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events
 Sea level rise threatening coastal areas (Karachi)
 Lethal combination of humidity and heat by late 21st century in Indus river basin
(Eun-Soon Im, Jeremy Paal, and Elfatir Eltahir, Deadly heat waves projected in the
densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia, Science Advances, 02 August 2017,
Vol. 3, No. 8)

Yet Pakistan has significant diversity in ecosystems and degree of uncertainty with
respect to climate impact details
Pakistan: Some Environment Impacts

 155,000 deaths attributable to indoor and outdoor air pollution alone in 2012 (WHO)
 Correlation between air pollutants and GHGs
 Overlap between air pollutants and GHGs (black carbon)
 Solid waste management challenges
 Landfill gas generation (which includes methane with 32 times global warming potential of
CO2)
 39,000 children under five die every year from diarrhea caused by unsafe water and poor
sanitation (UNDP)
 Diarrheal diseases projected to increase in a climate affected world (WB/Potsdam)
 Down from 5,000 m3/capita of water to 1,000 m3/capita today (UNDP) but yet 94% of
freshwater withdrawal still used in agriculture (WB)
 Very low forest cover (1.9% of land area) affects susceptibility to climate impacts
 Direct and indirect cost of environmental degradation annually is 9% of GDP (2005 data, World
Bank, 2008, Environmental Health and Child Survival: Epidemiology, Economics, Experiences, Washington
DC.)
A menu of possible approaches

 Tackling climate resiliency head-on vs. the co-benefits approach

 NDC focus is on building resilience given low GHG emissions/capita
 Pure resiliency focus limits potential climate finance options to water management
and efficiency/forestry and land use
 Including mitigation opens wider set of options. Also protects against being left
behind on energy technology front. E.g. methane from landfills and SWM/black
carbon and air quality/transport emissions and air quality
 Project focus vs. empowering solutions
 Where should government intervene? Incentives/knowledge support versus projects
Building climate resilience: process and
prioritization
 Where are we trying to go?
 What do we have already?
 What is still missing?
 What is government’s role?
Where are we trying to go (goals)

 Active management of climate risks by

government, private sector and personal levels
 Climate-integrated approaches to energy, agriculture, water and in cities,
optimizing local co-benefits
 Ability of citizens to be more resilient to climate impacts (particularly the
poor)
 Encourage continuous development of climate solutions amongst all
stakeholders (youth, private sector, provinces)
What we have already….

 External facilitators
 UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement
 Sustainable Development Goals
 Financial investors focus on climate risk
 Socially responsible investors
 National drivers
 SBP Green Banking Guidelines
 PBC’s CERB wanting to contribute to SDGs
 Existing water and energy crises require efficiency focus
 National capacity
 Environmental science/engineering degrees offered in 15 Higher Education Institutions
 NDMA
..but what is still missing….

 Broad knowledge generation and sharing of climate information/data

 People with sufficient understanding of climate impacts
 Education and training to solve real world problems (rather than focus on
theory)
 Taking advantage of Pakistan’s ecosystem diversity to optimize climate
solutions
 Protecting the poor from climate impacts
 Development of green business/tech start ups
 Financing
 AND a way of measuring progress towards our goals
Government’s role in generating climate
solutions 1
 Knowledge sharing
 Platforms for sharing critical climate related information: extreme heat, heavy rainfall,
glacier melt, etc.
 NDMA successful example (through cell phones); agricultural extension?
 Will facilitate implementation of Green Banking Guidelines and general public awareness
 Monitoring progress through indicators of progress towards goals
 Efficiency of resource use (air, water)
 Local pollution
 GHG per capita
 Ability to cope with extreme weather
 Economic losses from extreme weather events
Government’s role in generating climate
solutions 2
 Strengthen capacity for climate assessment and solution generation: science,
modelling, evidenced-based policy formulation.
 Tie up Pakistani universities with srong climate programs in universities and centers
abroad (MIT, Berkeley, Grantham, Potsdam, JRC, Tsinghua, etc.)
 Encourage private sector to develop climate solutions
 Development of green start-ups/businesses (Hackathons, public accelerators)
 Resource in efficiency use – linkage with SDGs and GBG
 Facilitate provincial action on climate solutions
 Use diversity in ecosystems as an advantage by creating a forum for knowledge
exchange across provinces, perhaps using Council of Common Interest (e.g. WB’s
Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for the Aral Sea Basin model). Start
with forests and land management perhaps..
Government’s role in generating climate
solutions 3
 Government action to help the poor who are most affected (WB’s Shockwaves)
 Need for increased climate awareness amongst rural poor e.g. see approach in WB
Tajikistan Environment Land Management and Rural Livelihoods Project perhaps adapted
to existing national programs
 Need for social safety nets for rural poor e.g. incorporate climate within existing cash
transfer schemes, such Benazir Income Support Program
 Mitigate risk through insurance schemes particularly for poor farmers through
participation in IFC’s Global Index Reinsurance Facility, mediated through existing
microfinance institutions
 Government action: strategic policy and project support
 Climate-integrated strategies (perhaps using policy strategic environmental assessment
approach) at country level and in key sectors: energy, agriculture and water. Also
encourage cities.
 “Signature” projects to lead way: (jointly with provinces) LFG to energy from landfills?
Financing

 External
 Carbon funds (now closed)
 Climate Investment Funds (MFIs)
 Green Climate Fund
 Small grants, often city-based (Bloomberg, Rockerfeller, etc.)
 Internal
 National Climate Fund? (with carbon pollution tax, e.g. on high sulfur fuel oil)
 Commercial finance (e.g. IFC’s sustainable energy financing gives step downs in
interest already and structure perhaps could be take further by giving premium for
active climate risk management)
 Thank You!

Contact: kulsum.ka.ahmed@gmail.com