DEMAND PLANNING AND

DEMAND MANAGEMENT
 Pendahuluan
 Permintaan thd barang dan jasa adalah awal dari semua kegiatan
Suppy Chain
 Kegiatan itu dilaksanakan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan atau
permintaan thd barang atau jasa pada pihak pelanggan
 Pada prsh yg berproduksi dengan sistem Make to stock (MTS)
semua kegiatannya dilakukan sebelum perusahaan tahu berapa
produk yang akan terjual di masing toko atau tempat penjualan
 Pada system produksi make to order (MTO), beberapa aktivitas
seperti perakitan akhir dan pembuatan komponen dilakukan atas
dasar perkiraan ato ramalan
 Peramalan permintaan Vs Pengelolaan
permintaan
Peramalan Permintaan :
Kegiatan untuk mengestimasi besarnya permintaan thd
barang atau jasa pada suatu periode dan wilayah
pemasaran tertentu

Demand Management :
Adalah upaya untuk membuat permintaan lebih mudah
dipenuhi oleh supply chain
Demand Planning Vs Demand Management

 Demand planning  the process that an

organization takes to anticipate customer demand
and ensure sufficient product is available – in the
right place, in the right time, to the required level of
service and at the lowest possible supply chain
costs.
 Included here are:
 Demand forecasting
 Inventory management
 Capacity planning
 Production planning and scheduling
 Materials requirement planning
Demand Management
Actively seeks to ensure that the customer demand
‘profile’ as an input to the demand-planning process
is as smooth as possible in order to make supply
chain operations easier.

In other words, the company is not only passively

process the given demand, but is trying to reduce
demand volatility, or improving demand stability.

Thus, demand planning is REACTIVE, while demand

management is PROACTIVE to customer demand.
Component of Demand Management

 Forecasting Demand
 Communicating Demand
 Influencing Demand
Demand Planning Vs Demand Management
Demand Management

Demand Production
Forecasting Planning Production Delivery

Demand Planning
Instruments of Demand Management

 Pricing
 Promotion: discounts, rebates, etc.
 Assortment
 Shelf management
 Deal structure: terms and condition, price
protection, return policies.
How to use those instruments?
 Understand the impact of changing the levels of
these instruments on the demand
 Incorporate the true supply chain costs
corresponding to the demand resulted from the
use of these instruments
 Link demand management and sc planning and
execution
 Carefully monitor and measure actual
performance
Financial Performance
 Total costs over the planning period: $422,275
 Material costs
 Labor costs
 Inventory holding costs
 Stockout costs
 Layoff costs
 Hiring and training costs
 Overtime costs
 Subcontracting costs
 Revenue: $640,000
 Profit: $217,725
Demand Changes: Promotion in January,
price $39/unit : 20% increase in demand,
20% forward buying
Demand
January 3000
February
2400
March 2560
April
3800
May
2200
June
2200
Solution
t Ht Lt Wt Ot It St Ct Pt
0 0 0 80 0 1000 0 0 0
1 0 15 65 0 610 0 0 2610
2 0 0 65 0 820 0 0 2610
3 0 0 65 0 870 0 0 2610
4 0 0 65 0 0 320 0 2610
5 0 0 65 0 90 0 0 2610
6 0 0 65 0 500 0 0 2610
Financial Performance

 Costs $421,915
 Revenue $643,400
 Profit $221,485
Demand Changes: Promotion in April,
price $39/unit: 20% increase in demand,
20% forward buying
Demand
January 1600
February
3000
March 3200
April
5060
May
1760
June
1760
WAYS TO REDUCE VARIABILITY AND
UNCERTAINTY
 Close collaboration with business
partners, Information sharing with
technology
 Reduce fixed cost components
(setup cost, transportation policies,
outsourcing, standardization)
 Reengineer the supply chain
(shorten lead time, use local
suppliers)
 New business models (such as
Dell’s direct model)
 Better planning capabilities
High SC Visibility

Easy to access:
 POS data
 Inventory availability in the
distribution channels
 Capacity availability at the
manufacturing facilities
 Promotional plans
 Early market signals
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and
Replenishment (CPFR)

Traditionally:
 Each function and each supply chain channel could

have different forecast figures

 Plans are developed in isolation from other supply

chain channels

 Minimal communication and coordination between

channels takes place for corrective actions when
actual production deviates from the plan
CPFR
CPFR  Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and
Replenishment
Prinsip:
 Supply Chain channels menggunakan forecast yang sama
untuk seluruh kegiatan mereka.

 Mereka juga meng-exploit supply process constraint.

Contohnya: short order cycle dengan long production cycle.

Caranya bisa dengan memperpendek manufacturing cycle
atau memperpanjang order cycle sehingga terjadi sinkronisasi.
Kenapa CPFR penting?
 Setiap channel punya informasi yang
berbeda (dimana kalau informasi tersebut
dibagi, akurasi forecast bisa ditingkatkan)
 Contoh informasi: setiap channel punya program
promosi yang berbeda, sedangkan manufacturer
punya informasi kapasitas.
A Leading Pilot
 Wal-Mart Vs Warner Lambert
 Now Wal-Mart is engaged with some 600 trading
partners
 Benefits:
 Promotional planning improvements
 Service level increases
 Reduction in inventories
 Better warehouse utilization
 Better capacity allocation
ELEMENTS OF CPFR

PLANNING
• Develop collaboration arrangement
• Create joint business plan
FORECASTING
• Create sales forecast
• Identify exception for sales forecast
• Resolve/collaborate on exception items
• Create order forecast
• Identify exception for order forecast
• Resolve/collaborate on exception items

REPLENISHMENT
• Order generation