INTRODUCTION TO

HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Alice Nakato
UCU SoM
• A research hypothesis is a statement of expectation/ an assumption/ prediction that
is subject to investigation/research

Null hypothesis (H0)

• Predicts no effect or difference between what is being compared
Alternate hypothesis ( Ha)
• Predicts an effect or difference between what is being compared

Examples
Null: The weight of girls in class A is the same as the weight of boys in the same class
Alternate: The weight of girls in class A is NOT the same as the weight of boys in the
same class
H0 : Wt.(girls) = Wt.(boys)
Ha: Wt.(girls) ≠ Wt.(boys)
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Null: The risk of lung cancer among smokers is the same as risk of lung cancer among
non-smokers
Alternate: The risk of lung cancer among smokers is NOT the same as risk of lung
cancer among non-smokers
H0 : I(smokers) = I(non-smokers)
Ha: I(smokers) ≠ I(non-smokers)

OR
H0 : RR = 1
Ha: RR ≠ 1

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 STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
• Statistical significance is a measure of how likely it is that the difference between
two groups, or statistics was observed by chance or occurred because two variables
are actually related to each other. This means that a “statistically significant” finding
is one in which it is likely that the finding is real, reliable, and not purely due to
chance

• To evaluate whether a finding is statistically significant, researchers do hypothesis

testing

• Because researchers want to ensure that they do not falsely conclude that there is a
meaningful difference between groups when in fact the difference is due to chance,
they often set a stringent standard for their statistical tests. This criterion is known
as the significance level
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• The significance level(α), is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when
it is actually true

• The significance level for a study is chosen before data collection, and is usually
set to 0.05 (5%)

• α is the standard against which we judge if we should rely on the results of our
statistical tests or not. The results could be any measure of effect such as OR, RR,
PR or even mere proportions and mean differences

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 PVALUE
• The p-value is a statistical measure that tells us whether our test result/value is
statistically significantly

• It is the probability that the observed result is due to chance

• If the p-value attached to a statistical finding < 0.05, we can conclude that the test
is statistically significant and we reject the null hypothesis

• If the p-value > 0.05, we can conclude that the test is NOT statistically and we fail
to reject the null hypothesis

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 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

• We normally carry out investigations using a sample but later make generalizations
about the larger population from which these sample was selected.
• Usually, the inference includes some consideration about the precision of the
measurement
The results of a study may have some degree of error of, say, plus or minus three points
• A common way to indicate a measurement’s precision is by providing a confidence
interval.
• The confidence interval (CI) is a range of values that’s likely to include a population
value with a certain degree of confidence
• It is often set at a %ge (confidence level e.g. 95% CI, 99% CI) etc. whereby the true
population measure lies between an upper and lower limit of the interval
• Confidence intervals are estimated for some but not all epidemiologic measures. RR,
OR, means among other epidemiologic measures are normally presented with their CIs

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Confidence Interval

• The null is the point of no difference

• The CI is a statistical range of values for which we have a high degree of confidence that the
true population measure lies within that range.
• If the CI touches or includes the null, then the test result is not statistically significant
Mean difference between the weight of boys and girls is 11.9Kgs and the estimated 95%
confidence interval for this result is 10.7,12.9

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RR for the association between smoking and lung cancer is 1.3 estimated 95% confidence
interval is -0.28, 1.06

• If the CI does not include 1, then the RR/OR is significantly different from 1.0 (i.e.
there's no possibility of the exposed and unexposed having the same measure of risk in
the population) e.g. CI= (0.85, 0.92)
• If the CI includes the value of 1, then the RR/OR is NOT significantly different from 1.0
(i.e. there's a possibility of the exposed and unexposed having the same measure of risk
in the population) CI= (0.85, 1.24)
• You can use either P values or confidence intervals to determine whether your results are
statistically significant. If a hypothesis test produces both the p value and CI, these
results will always agree
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Table of research results: An extract from https: https://
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7185114/pdf/aging-12-103000.pdf
Odds ratios and CIs
Pvalues

For hypertension,
Diabetes, COPD are
statistically significant
(p<0.05 and CI doesn’t
include 1)

For Liver disease ,

Renal disease, result
are NOT statistically
significant (p>0.05 CI
includes 1)

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https://www.dovepress.com/getfile.php?fileID=42718

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