Scheduling Network Scheduling Advantage

• Schedule is the conversion of a project action plan • Consistent framework

into an operating timetable
• Basis for monitoring a project
• One of the major project management tools
• Most of the scheduling is at the WBS level, not
the work package level
• Only the most critical work packages may be
shown on the schedule
• Most of the scheduling is based on network
drawings
Network Scheduling Techniques: PERT and CPM
• Shows interdependences
• Shows when resources are needed
• Ensures proper communication
• Determines expected completion date
• Identifies critical activities
• Shows which of the activities can be delayed
• Determines start dates
• Shows which task must be coordinated
• Shows which task can be run parallel
• Relieves some conflict
• Allows probabilistic estimates

• PERT was developed for the Polaris missile/submarine project in 1958

• CPM developed by DuPont during the same time
• Initially, CPM and PERT were two different approaches
• CPM used deterministic time estimates and allowed project crunching
• PERT used probabilistic time estimates
• Microsoft Project (and others(Jira, Primavera) have blended CPM and PERT
into one approach
Terminology
• Activity - A specific task or set of tasks that are required by the project, use up resources, and take time to complete
• Event - The result of completing one or more activities
• Network - The combination of all activities and events that define a project
• Drawn left-to-right
• Connections represent predecessors
• Path - A series of connected activities
• Critical - An activity, event, or path which, if delayed, will delay the completion of the project
• Critical Path - The path through the project where, if any activity is delayed, the project is delayed
• There is always a critical path
• There can be more than one critical path
• Sequential Activities - One activity must be completed before the next one can begin
• Parallel Activities - The activities can take place at the same time
• Immediate Predecessor - That activity that must be completed just before a particular activity can begin

Sequential Activities
AON format e.g.
Network Conventions
AON format AOA format
Constructing the Network Dummy activities
• AON used mostly in softwares
• Begin with START activity • AON don’t need dummy activities
• Add activities without precedences as nodes • AOA needs dummy activities
• There will always be one • Dummies are used to aid precedence via dashed
• May be more line
• Add activities that have those activities as precedences
• Continue

Sample of
Network
Construction
Show network design manually
 Advantages
Gantt (Bar) Charts • Easily understood
• Developed by Henry L. Gantt
• Provide a picture of the current state of a project
• Shows planned and actual progress
Disadvantage
• Easy-to-read method to know the current status
• Difficult to follow complex projects
Microsoft Project AON Network
Use three time estimates:
• Optimistic (a)
• Pessimistic (b) (Why?)
• Most likely (m)

TE 
a  4m  b 
6
 b  a  
2

2  
 6 
  2

Show network design manually

 Solving the Network AON

Calculating Activity Times Calculating Activity Times

Distribution of all possible
TE 
a  4m  b  activity times for an activity
Use three time estimates:
6
• Optimistic (a)
 b  a  
2 H.W. Parkinson’s Law?
• Pessimistic (b) (Why?)
•
2  
Most likely (m)  6 
  2
The Results Critical Path and Time (AON)

Showing activity duration (T.E) and variance

 Slack (aka, Float)

LS - ES or LF - EF

AON showing earliest and latest start and finish times and
critical (bolded path)
Precedence Diagramming Restrictions
• Finish to start Precedence Diagramming Conventions
• Start to start
• Finish to finish
• Start to finish
Gantt Chart
AON Network
Microsoft Project Calendar
 Uncertainty of Project Completion Time

• Assume activities are statistically independent

• Variance of a set of activities is the sum of the
individual variances
• Interested in variances along the critical path Toward Realistic Time Estimates

Example
• Calculations are based on 1% chance of beating
estimates
• Calculations can also be based on 5% or 10%
Z
(D   )

50  43

7
 1.22 • Changing the percentage requires changing the
 2 33 5.745 formulae for variance
• When using 5%, the divisor changes to 3.29
• When using 10%, the divisor changes to 2.56

D      Z  43  5.7451.645  52.45
Risk Analysis Using Simulation with Crystal Ball
Incorporating Costs into the Simulation Analysis
 Traditional Statistics or Simulation?

• Simulation is recommended but only after

the analyst has a good understanding of the
traditional statistical approach.
• Important for project manager to manage all
paths and activities that may potentially
impact the project’s ability to be completed
on time
• Even non-critical tasks

Using These Tools

• Microsoft Project®
• Crystal Ball®
• Excel®
 Scheduling with Scrum
• Estimation poker is consensus-based approach to
developing time estimates
• Decks of cards with Fibonacci sequence used
• A requirement from product backlog everyone agrees
is a “5” is selected
• Effort of remaining requirements voted on using
decks of cards
Three Estimates for Velocity
• Lowest velocity across completed
sprints used for pessimistic estimate
• Highest velocity across completed
sprints used for optimistic estimate
• Average velocity across completed
sprints used for most likely time
estimate