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Randomness, Probability, and Simulation-1
Randomness, Probability, and Simulation-1
1: Randomness,
Probability and Simulation
Section 5.1
Randomness, Probability and Simulation
After this section, you should be able to…
**See 5.1 WS
STATE:
• What is the probability that the lottery would
result in two winners from the AP Stats class?
• P (X=2), where x is the number of winners from
AP Stats
PLAN:
Using the table of random digits, we will randomly
assign each student a two digit number from 01 to 95.
We’ll label the students in the AP Statistics class from
01 to 28, and the remaining students from 29 to 95.
(Numbers from 96 to 00 will be skipped.) Starting at
the randomly selected row 139 and moving left to
right across the row, we’ll look at pairs of digits until
we come across two different values from 01 to 95.
These two values will represent the two students with
these labels will win the prime parking spaces. We will
record whether both winners are members of the AP
Statistics class (Yes or no). We will conduct the
simulation 18 times.
Required Elements:
– Plan must include:
• What tool?
– Table of Random of Digits, Calculator Random Number
Generator (RandInt), etc.
• What values are you assigning?
– 01 to 95
• How many values are you picking each time?
– 2 values
• How many times are you conducting the simulation?
– 18 times
• What about repeat digits or ignored digits?
– Ignore repeat digits within a single draw
• What are you recording?
– Yes for both AP Stats.
DO:
Students Labels Reading across row 139 in Table
D, look at pairs of digits until you
AP Statistics Class 01-28 see two different labels from 01-
Other 29-95 95. Record whether or not both
winners are members of the AP
Skip numbers from 96-00 Statistics Class.
55 | 58 89 | 94 04 | 70 70 | 84 10|98|43 56 | 35 69 | 34 48 | 39 45 | 17
X|X X|X ✓|X X|X ✓|Sk|X X|X X|X X|X X|✓
No No No No No No No No No
Driver Label
Jeff Gordon 1
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 2
Tony Stewart 3
Danica Patrick 4
Jimmie Johnson 5
DO:
Dotplot of 50 Trials
CONCLUDE:
We never had to buy more than 22 boxes to get the
full set of cards in 50 repetitions of our simulation.
Our estimate of the probability that it takes 23 or
more boxes to get a full set of driver is roughly 0.
Therefore, she should be surprised that it took 23
cereal box purchases to find all 5 driver cards.