Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Pakistan Building Climate Resilliance
Pakistan Building Climate Resilliance
Climate Resilience
Kulsum Ahmed
Presentation for the National Planning Commission
Islamabad, February 28, 2018
Pakistan at 70 years: Climate and
Environment
What does the data show?
A menu of possible approaches
Building climate resilience: process and prioritization
Government’s role in generating climate solutions
Financing
Summary
Pakistan: Climate data
CO2 emissions per capita are low, but will increase with coal power
0.896 metric tons /capita (2014) vs
1.4 metric tons/capita for South Asian countries group
1.4 metric tons/capita for lower middle-income countries group
4.97 metric tons/capita for world
Major floods in 2010 (20% land area under water) and 2012
The last five floods (2010-2014) have resulted in monetary losses of over US$ 18 billion
with 38.12 million people affected, 3.45 million houses damaged and 10.63 million acres
of crops destroyed (INDC)
2010 floods in Pakistan affected 4.5 million workers, two-thirds of whom were employed
in agriculture, and over 70 percent of farmers lost more than half of their expected
income (FAO)
Agricultural sector growth dropped from 3.5% to 0.2% between 2009 and 2010 due to
2010 flood (FAO)
133 extreme weather events between 1996-2015 (Germanwatch’s Climate Risk
Index 2015)
Extreme climate events between 1994 - 2013 have resulted in an average annual
economic loss of almost US$ 4 billion (NDMA)
1200 people died in Karachi during unprecedented heat wave in 2015 (Pak INDC)
Pakistan: Some Climate Projections
Floods and droughts, but variation in glacier melt and Karakoram anomaly (Nathan
Forsythe, Hayley J. Fowler, Xiao-Feng Li, Stephen Blenkinsop, David
Pritchard. Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric
circulation variability. Nature Climate Change, 2017; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3361)
Increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events
Sea level rise threatening coastal areas (Karachi)
Lethal combination of humidity and heat by late 21st century in Indus river basin
(Eun-Soon Im, Jeremy Paal, and Elfatir Eltahir, Deadly heat waves projected in the
densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia, Science Advances, 02 August 2017,
Vol. 3, No. 8)
Yet Pakistan has significant diversity in ecosystems and degree of uncertainty with
respect to climate impact details
Pakistan: Some Environment Impacts
155,000 deaths attributable to indoor and outdoor air pollution alone in 2012 (WHO)
Correlation between air pollutants and GHGs
Overlap between air pollutants and GHGs (black carbon)
Solid waste management challenges
Landfill gas generation (which includes methane with 32 times global warming potential of
CO2)
39,000 children under five die every year from diarrhea caused by unsafe water and poor
sanitation (UNDP)
Diarrheal diseases projected to increase in a climate affected world (WB/Potsdam)
Down from 5,000 m3/capita of water to 1,000 m3/capita today (UNDP) but yet 94% of
freshwater withdrawal still used in agriculture (WB)
Very low forest cover (1.9% of land area) affects susceptibility to climate impacts
Direct and indirect cost of environmental degradation annually is 9% of GDP (2005 data, World
Bank, 2008, Environmental Health and Child Survival: Epidemiology, Economics, Experiences, Washington
DC.)
A menu of possible approaches
External facilitators
UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement
Sustainable Development Goals
Financial investors focus on climate risk
Socially responsible investors
National drivers
SBP Green Banking Guidelines
PBC’s CERB wanting to contribute to SDGs
Existing water and energy crises require efficiency focus
National capacity
Environmental science/engineering degrees offered in 15 Higher Education Institutions
NDMA
..but what is still missing….
External
Carbon funds (now closed)
Climate Investment Funds (MFIs)
Green Climate Fund
Small grants, often city-based (Bloomberg, Rockerfeller, etc.)
Internal
National Climate Fund? (with carbon pollution tax, e.g. on high sulfur fuel oil)
Commercial finance (e.g. IFC’s sustainable energy financing gives step downs in
interest already and structure perhaps could be take further by giving premium for
active climate risk management)
Thank You!
Contact: kulsum.ka.ahmed@gmail.com