International Players In Balochistan

International Economic, Military and Political Interests

China The US Iran India Central Asia/EU/Russia/Afghanistan

China
Gwadar Port
Current Investment: $200 million Energy supply potential esp. for West China
Corridor to import oil from the Gulf region

Current stand still over port improvement: Oil refinement units, International Airport, Naval operations Challenges
Regional instability
Balochistan grievances and insurgency E.g. Killings of Chinese engineers Central Asian and Afghan route volatility

Highly under-developed infrastructure

Makran Coastal Highway downtime of 1 week in case of rains Immense expenditure - perhaps $2 billion - to link Gwadar to inland economic centers in Pakistan, western China and Central Asia Quetta and Karachi broken land routes: Almost 20 hr ETA

China
Saindak Project involvement
Five years extension to MCC with 5% additional shares to Balochistan government Unmonitored and environmentally hazardous exploitation of copper mining: Pakistan coming out as the losing party

Duddar Lead Zinc Deposit Involvement: MRDL (China) Copper Politics

Reko-Diq (est. $200bn-$500bn)
Copper Ore Tonnage bigger than Sarcheshmeh (Iran) and Escondida (Chile) New Competitors after TCC are Benway Corporation,NY and Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC) Analogy of Chiles copper resource exploitation by US mining corporations
In 60 years, US Miners made half of Chiles accumulated wealth in 400 years Allendes decision to nationalize copper mines pushed CIA to conspire to topple him

Benway Corp. pushed TCC out by indicating TCCs non declaration of RekoDiqs deposits, silently fuelling media sentiments and showing interest in becoming a party in SC Both parties are employing back door diplomatic channels to win the lease

China
Naval interests
Chinas alleged String of Pearls strategy Maritime insecurity through Strait of Malacca Pakistans offer of Chinese Naval facilities or foothold on the Arabian Sea coast

Xinjiang insurgency
Perception of Pakistan exporting terrorists

Counter-weighing US Counter-weighing India

The United States

War on Terror
NATO attack on Salala checkpost and counter-measures Safe haven for Taliban, Mullah Omar and Haqqani Network along Pashtun belt Quetta Shura Terrorism export through rugged border terrain

Economic interests: Huge energy and mineral deposits Reservations over Chinese influence Efforts for US Consulate in Balochistan (Cameron Munter) Relations with seperatist elements
Good will links to contain Talibanization and Iran Baloch Seperatist representation (Munir Mengal) in Bonn Conference Protest over Human Rights Violations Independent Balochistan map on the official site of US immigration and social services (2009) No material support to avoid antagonizing Pakistan and pushing it further towards China and destabilizing the already volatile region

Iran
Sistan Insurgency
Strategic asset with respect to Balochistan unrest

Terrorism by Jundullah: Roots in Balochistan

Abdul Malik Regis admission Terrorist attack timeline: 2005-2010

Economic ties
Panjgur: Date processing industry case study Trade routes: Food provisions

Solid infrastructure investment by Iranian state

Chahbehar-Jiwani Sarawan-Penjgoor Taftan-Kunrook

IPI Failure

India
Gwadar Port
Concern of India's military establishment as a potential avenue for monitoring Indian naval activities (China/Pakistan Navies) and a potential threat to Indian shipping in the gulf Need for friendly & safe energy route for Western India Replace Gwadar with alternative AfghanistanIran safe transit route to CAR (Chahbahar & Zaranj-Delaram road)

Multitude of consulates along Af-Pak border

Consulate in Zahdan (Bordering city to Pakistan)

Alleged involvement in fanning the Balochistan insurgency

Govt. of Pakistan claims having irrefutable evidence Tribal identity: A rebuttal against Islamic identity Pressure on Pakistan that it should give up support to militancy in Kashmir. Alleged RAW links during 1973 insurgency still functional

Afghanistan/EU/CAR/Russia
Afghanistan
North Eastern borders with Afghanistan Durand line conflict: Nationalist Afghans claim a huge chunk of Balochistan as their own Support for Independent Balochistan as an anti-Taliban strategic asset

Russia
EU and Turkey energy markets lion share, interested in warm water access through Balochistan

EU
Against IPI to cut off Irans alternative route for export to South Asian and Middle East markets and to place it in direct trade confrontation with Russias EU market hence bring down oil prices Germanys aim to switch to renewable power by 2050 and interest in the alternative energy corridors of Balochistan

Pashtoon and Hazara: Cultual Dimension

PASHTUN ETHINICTY

Pashtun Ethnicity
Population density in North and North West 11 out of 30 districts Metropolitan Density: Quetta Prominent districts: Pasheen, Chaman, Qilla Abdullah, Zhob, Musa Khel, Shirani Prominent tribes: Kakar, Ghilzai Tareen, Mandokhel , Sherani, Luni, Kasi and Achakzai

Pashtun Ethnicity
Culture:
PashtunWali: Priniple of non violence among the nine pillars Game of Buzkushi: An insight into power politics of Pashtuns (alliances and survival of fittest) Strong religious character: Almost 100% Sunni Muslims Strong martial character Liberal tribal structure and the ascendency of ethnic over geographic boundaries Uninterested in Greater Balochistan but sensitive to human rights violations Pro-federation

Pashtun Ethnicity
Grievances:
Exploitation of religious social character
Talibanization impact Sensitivity to terrorism stereotype Strategic exploitation of Pashtun manpower by establishment

Lack of infrastructure & Development

Nationalist parties manifesto The only well-constructed road: Quetta-Chaman

Pashtun Ethnicity
Grievances (contd):
Insensitivity to potential development
Khanozai in Pasheen: Most literate (90-95%) and liberal in Balochistan Lack of educational, medical and executive facilities

Lack of political development

Extremely disfunctional electoral process Manipulation of electoral setup Popularity of religious parties like JUI-Nezriati Others: Pashtoon Khwa Milli Awami Party

HAZARA ETHINICTY

Hazara Ethinicity
5-7 lac in Balochistan (Quetta) Mongolian Turk descent: Changezi Race Language: Hazargi (Persian dialect) Migratory Roots: Afghanistan
Pre-1947 Migration 1960-1970 Migrations Taliban-Era Migrations

Religion: Almost 100% Shia Muslims Harmonious feelings towards fellow Balochs

Hazara Ethinicity
Political party: Hazara Democratic party Personalities:
Gen. M. Musa (1965 War Hero) Saira Batool (First Woman pilot in Pakistan Air Force) Jan Ali Changezi (Minister of Quality Education & Clean Drinking Water in Balochistan)

Pro-federation Strong cultural cohesion: E.g.Inter-marriage traditions especially for girls Liberal and educational tilts
88% literacy rate 90-92% female literacy rate

Hazara Ethinicity
Grievances/Sensitivities:
Hazara Killings:
Described as Genocide
Since 2003: 600 Hazaras killed Since 2008: 275 Hazaras killed as per HRW

EidulAzha, Aashoor and Mastung tragedy Responsibility mostly claimed by LeJ Silence of state, baloch and Pashtun fellows, civil society 1st Oct 2011: International protest was not covered Sensitivity to religious views (Shiite Islam)