Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply: Slides by John F. Hall

Chapter 17 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMICS 2e / LIEBERMAN & HALL CHAPTER 17 / AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY 2005, South-Western/Thomson Learning
Slides by John F. Hall

Animations by Anthony Zambelli
Figure 1: The Two-Way Relationship Between Output and the Price Level
Aggregate Demand Curve
Price Level
Real GDP
Aggregate Supply Curve
Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005
The Price Level and The Money Market
First effect of a change in the price level occurs in the money market Rise in the price increases the demand for money and shifts the money demand curve rightward It makes purchases more expensive Drop in the price level
Makes purchases cheaper Decreases the demand for money Shifts the money demand curve leftward
Rise in the price level causes the interest rate to rise and interest-sensitive spending to fall Equilibrium GDP decreases by a multiple of the decrease
in interest-sensitive spending
The Price Level and Net Exports

The second effect of a higher price level brings in the foreign sector A rise in the price level causes Net exports to drop and Equilibrium GDP to decrease by a multiple of the
drop in net exports
Deriving The Aggregate Demand (AD) Curve

Figure 2 plots the price level on a vertical axis and the economys real GDP on the horizontal axis If we continued to change the price level to other values we would find that each different price level results in a different equilibrium GDP The aggregate demand (AD) curve tells us the equilibrium real GDP at any price level
Figure 2: Deriving the Aggregate Demand Curve

Price Level
140
K J
100
AD
10
Real GDP ($ Trillions)
Movements Along The AD Curve
A variety of events can cause the price level to change, and move us along the AD curve
Its important to understand what happens in the economy as we make such

a move
Opposite sequence of events will occur if the price level falls, moving us rightward along the AD curve
Shifts of The AD Curve
The distinction between movements along the AD curve and shifts of the curve itself is very important Always keep the following rule in mind
When a change in the price level causes equilibrium GDP to change, we
move along the AD curve Whenever anything other than the price level causes equilibrium GDP to change, the AD curve itself shifts
What are these other influences on GDP? Equilibrium GDP will change whenever there is a change in any of
the following
Government spending Taxes Autonomous consumption spending Investment spending The money supply curve The money demand curve
Changes in the Money Market

Changes that originate in the money market will also shift the aggregate demand curve An increase in the money supply shifts the AD curve rightward A decrease in the money supply shifts the AD
curve leftward
Figure 4(a): Effects of Key Changes on the Aggregate Demand Curve

(a) Price Level Price level moves us leftward along the AD curve Price level moves us rightward along the AD curve
P3
P1
P2
AD
Q3
Q1
Q2
Real GDP
10
Figure 4(b): Effects of Key Changes on the Aggregate Demand Curve

(b) Price Level Entire AD curve shifts rightward if: a, IP, G, or NX increases Net taxes decrease The money supply increases
AD2
AD1 Real GDP
11
Figure 4(c): Effects of Key Changes on the Aggregate Demand Curve

(c) Price Level Entire AD curve shifts leftward if: a, IP, G, or NX decreases decreases Net taxes increase The money supply decreases
AD1
AD2 Real GDP
12
The Aggregate Supply Curve
On the one hand, changes in the price level affect output On the other hand, changes in output affect the
price level This relationshipsummarized by the aggregate supply curveis the focus of this section
The effect of changes in output on the price level is complex, involving a variety of forces
13
Costs and Prices
Price level in economy results from pricing behavior of millions of individual business firms In any given year, some of these firms will raise their
prices, and some will lower them
Often, all firms in the economy are affected by the same macroeconomic event Causing prices to rise or fall throughout the economy To understand how macroeconomic events affect the price level, we begin with a very simple assumption A firm sets price of its products as a markup over cost
per unit
14
Costs and Prices
Percentage markup in any particular industry will depend on degree of competition there In macroeconomics, we are not concerned with how the markup differs in different industries But rather with average percentage markup in economy
Determined by competitive conditions Competitive structure changes very slowly, so average percentage
markup should be somewhat stable from year-to-year
But a stable markup does not necessarily mean a stable price level, because unit costs can change In short-run, price level rises when there is an economy-wide
increase in unit costs
Price level falls when there is an economy-wide decrease in unit costs
15
GDP, Costs, and the Price Level
Why should a change in output affect unit costs and price level? As total output increases
Greater amounts of inputs may be needed to produce a unit of
output Price of non-labor inputs rise Nominal wage rate rises
A decrease in output affects unit costs through the same three forces, but with opposite result
16
The Short Run

All three of our reasons are important in explaining why a change in output affects price level They operate within different time frames Our third explanationchanges in nominal wage rateis a different story For a year or more after a change in output, changes in average nominal wage are less important than other forces that change unit costs
17
The Short Run
Some of the more important reasons why wages in many industries respond so slowly to changes in output Many firms have union contracts that specify wages for
up to three years Wages in many large corporations are set by slowmoving bureaucracies Wage changes in either direction can be costly to firms Firms may benefit from developing reputations for paying stable wages
18
The Short Run
Nominal wage rate is fixed in short-run We assume that changes in output have no
effect on nominal wage rate in short-run
Since we assume a constant nominal wage in short-run, a change in output will affect unit costs through the other two factors In short-run, a rise (fall) in real GDP, by causing
unit costs to increase (decrease), will also cause a rise (decrease) in price level
19
Deriving the Aggregate Supply Curve

Figure 5 summarizes discussion about effect of output on price level in short-run Each time we change level of output, there will be a new price level in short-run Giving us another point on the figure If we connect all of these points, we obtain economys
aggregate supply curve Tells us price level consistent with firms unit costs and their
percentage markup at any level of output over short-run
A more accurate name for AS curve would be short-run-price-level-at-each-output-level curve

20
Figure 5: The Aggregate Supply Curve

Price Level AS
130 100 80 C A
Starting at point A, an increase in output raises unit costs. Firms raise prices, and the overall price level rises.
Starting at point A, a decrease in output lowers unit costs. Firms cut prices, and the overall price level falls.
6
10
13.5
21
Movements Along the AS Curve
When a change in output causes price level to change, we move along economys AS curve What happens in economy as we make such a
move? As we move upward along AS curve, we can represent what happens as follows
22
Shifts of the AS Curve
Figure 5 assumed that a number of important variables remained unchanged Unit costs sometimes change for reasons other than a change in
output
In general, we distinguish between a movement along AS curve, and a shift of curve itself, as follows When a change in real GDP causes the price level to change, we
move along AS curve
When anything other than a change in real GDP causes price level to
change, AS curve itself shifts
What can cause unit costs to change at any given level of output? Changes in world oil prices Changes in the weather Technological change Nominal wage, etc.
23
Figure 7(a): Effects of Key Changes on the Aggregate Supply Curve

(a) Price Level Real GDP moves us rightward along the AS curve P3 Real GDP moves us leftward along the AS curve AS
P1 P2
Q2
Q1
Q3
Real GDP
24
Figure 7(b): Effects of Key Changes on the Aggregate Supply Curve

(b) Price Level Entire AS curve shifts upward if unit costs for any reason besides an increase in real GDP AS2 AS1
Real GDP
25
Figure 7(c): Effects of Key Changes on the Aggregate Supply Curve

(c) Price Level AS1 AS2
Entire AS curve shifts downward if unit costs for any reason besides an decrease in real GDP
Real GDP
26
Figure 8: Short-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium

Price Level 140 E F AD B AS
100
6
10
14
27
What Happens When Things Change?
Our short-run equilibrium will change when either AD curve, AS curve, or both, shift An event that causes AD curve to shift is called a
demand shock An event that causes AS curve to shift is called a supply shock
In earlier chapters, weve used phrase spending shock A change in spending by one or more sectors that
ultimately affects entire economy Demand shocks and supply shocks are just two different categories of spending shocks
28
An Increase in Government Purchases

Shifts AD curve rightward Can see how it affects economy in short-run Process weve just described is not entirely realistic Assumes that when government purchases rise,
first output increases, and then price level rises In reality, output and price level tend to rise together
29
Figure 9: The Effect of a Demand Shock

Price Level AS
130 115 100 E
H J
AD1
AD2
10
13.5 12.5
Real GDP($ Trillions)
30
An Increase in Government Purchases
Can summarize impact of price-level changes When government purchases increase, horizontal shift of AD curve
measures how much real GDP would increase if price level remained constant
But because price level rises, real GDP rises by less than horizontal
shift in AD curve
31
An Decrease in Government Purchases
32
An Increase in the Money Supply
Although monetary policy stimulates economy through a different channel than fiscal policy Once we arrive at AD and AS diagram, two look very
much alike Can represent situation as follows
33
An Example: The Great Depression
U.S. economy collapsed far more seriously during 1929 through 1933the onset of the Great Depressionthan it did at any other time What do we know about demand shocks that caused Great Depression? Fall of 1929, bubble of optimism burst Stock market crashed, and investment and consumption
spending plummeted Demand for products exported by United States fell Fed reacted by cutting money supply sharply Each of these events contributed to a leftward shift of AD curve
Causing both output and price level to fall
34
Demand Shocks: Adjusting to the Long-Run
In Figure 9, point H shows new equilibrium after a positive demand shock in short-runa year or so after the shock But point H is not necessarily where economy will end up
in long-run
In short-run, we treat wage rate as given But in long-run, wage rate can change When output is above full employment, wage rate will
rise, shifting AS curve upward When output is below full employment, wage rate will fall, shifting AS curve downward
35
Demand Shocks: Adjusting to the Long Run
Increase in government purchases has no effect on equilibrium GDP in long-run Economy returns to full employment, which is just where
it started This is why long-run adjustment process is often called economys self-correcting mechanism
If a demand shock pulls economy away from full employment Change in wage rate and price level will eventually cause
economy to correct itself and return to full-employment output
36
Figure 10: The Long-Run Adjustment Process

Price Level
AS2
AS1 P4 P3 K J H E AD2 AD1 YFE Y3 Y2
P2 P1
Real GDP
37
For a positive demand shock that shifts AD curve rightward, self-correcting mechanism works like this
38
Figure 11: Long-Run Adjustment After a Negative Demand Shock

Price Level AS1 AS2
P1 P2 P3
E N
M
AD1 AD2
Y2
YFE
Real GDP
39
Complete sequence of events after a negative demand shock looks like this
40
Can summarize economys self-correcting mechanism as follows Whenever a demand shock pulls economy away from full
employment Self-correcting mechanism will eventually bring it back When output exceeds its full-employment level, wages will eventually rise Causing a rise in price level and a drop in GDP until full
employment is restored
When output is less than its full employment level wages

will eventually fall Causing a drop in price level and a rise in GDP until full
employment is restored
41
The Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

Self-correcting mechanism provides an important link between economys long-run and short-run behaviors Long-run aggregate supply curve also illustrates another classical conclusion An increase in government purchases causes complete crowding out
Rise in government purchases is precisely matched by a drop in
consumption and investment spending
Leaving total output and total spending unchanged
Self-correcting mechanism shows that, in long-run, economy will eventually behave as classical model predicts Notice the word eventually in the previous statement This is why governments around the world are reluctant to rely on
self-correcting mechanism alone to keep economy on track
42
Figure 12: The Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

Price Level
Long-Run AS Curve
M
AD1 AD3 YFE
AD2
Real GDP
43
Short-Run Effects of Supply Shocks
Figure 13 shows an example of a supply shock An increase in world oil prices that shifts aggregate supply curve
upward, from AS1 and AS2 Called negative supply shock, because of negative effect on output
output and increasing price level
In short-run a negative supply shock shifts AS curve upward, decreasing
Notice sharp contrast between effects of negative supply shocks and negative demand shocks in short-run Economists and journalists have coined term stagflation to describe
a stagnating economy experiencing inflation
A negative supply shock causes stagflation in short-run
Examples of positive supply shocks include unusually good weather, a drop in oil prices, and a technological change that lowers unit costs In addition, a positive supply shock can sometimes be caused by
government policy
44
Figure 13: The Effect of Supply Shocks

Price Level Long-Run AS Curve AS2 AS1
R
P2 P1 P2 AD Y2
AS3
YFE
Y3
Real GDP
45
Long-Run Effects of Supply Shocks
What about effects of supply shocks in long-run? In some cases, we need not concern ourselves with this
question, because some supply shocks are temporary
In other cases, however, a supply shock can last for an extended period In long-run, economy self-corrects after a supply shock, just as it does after a demand shock When output differs from its full-employment level
Wage rate changes AS curve shifts until full employment is restored 46
Using the Theory: The Recession of 1990-91
Story of 1990-91 recession begins in mid1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait During this conflict, Kuwaits oil was taken off
world market, as was Iraqs Reduction in oil supplies resulted in a rapid and substantial increase in price of oil
47
Using the Theory: The Recession of 2001
Story of 2001 recession was quite different This time, there was no spike in oil prices and no other significant
supply shock to plague economy Rather, there was a demand shock, and a Federal Reserve policy during the year before the recession that might have made it a bit worse
During late 1990s, Fed had become concerned that investment boom and consumer optimism were shifting AD curve rightward too rapidly Creating a danger that we would overshoot potential GDP and set off
higher inflation Fed responded by tightening money supply and raising interest rate Effects of this policy may have continued into early 2001, exacerbating decrease in investment that was occurring for other reasons
In this way, rate hikes themselves may have contributed to a further

leftward shift of AD curve
48
Figure 14(a): An AD and AS analysis of Two Recessions

1. In 1990, a supply shock from (a)higher oil prices shifted the AS curve leftward . . . Price Level AS1991 AS1990 R P2 P1 E 2. causing output to fall . . .
AD1990
3. and the price level to rise. Real GDP
Y2
YFE
49
Figure 14(b): An AD and AS analysis of Two Recessions

4. In 2001, a demand shock from (b) several factors caused the AD curve to shift leftward . . . Price Level AS2000
P2 P1 6. and the price level to fall.
5. causing output to fall . . . AD2000 AD2001
Y2
YFE
Real GDP
50
Figure 15(a/b): GDP and the Price Level in Two Recessions

The 1990-91 Recession
(a)
Real GDP ($ Trillions) 6.75 6.72 6.69 6.66 6.63 6.60 130 125 120
1989:3 1990:2 1991:1 1989:3 1990:2 1991:1
(b) CPI 140 135
Year and Quarter

Year and Quarter
51
Figure 15(c/d): GDP and the Price Level in Two Recessions

The 2001 Recession (c) Real GDP ($ Trillions) 9.35 9.30 9.25 9.20 9.15 9.10 172 176 CPI 178 (d)
174
2000:1 2001:1 Year and Quarter

2000:1 2001:1 Year and Quarter
52
Using the Theory: Jobless Expansions

After a recession, economy enters expansion phase of business cycle
Employment usually grows rapidly during this period as well
But in our two most recent recessions, economy experienced abnormal, prolonged periods during which employment did not grow at all Figure 16 illustrates behavior of employment during our two most recent recession
Called trough of recession
Vertical axis shows an employment indexemployment divided by employment at the trough Blue line shows that employment falls during the contraction phase of average cycle
Rises rapidly during the first year of the expansion phase
But red and pink lines show what happened in first year of our most recent expansionsduring 1992 and 2002
number of jobs decreased during year
In both cases, employment drifted slightly downward, telling us that total
53
Figure 16: The Average Expansion Versus Two Recent Jobless Expansions
Employment 1.04 Index (Trough = 1) 1.03
1.02 1.01 1.00 After Average Recession After 2001 Recession
0.99
-6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 +12 Months Before and After the Trough
After 1991 Recession
54
Explaining Jobless Expansions
Since story is similar for both of these expansions, lets focus on period from late 2001 to late 2002 the first year of expansion after our most recent recession Using equation for economic growth
Real GDP = productivity x average hours x (emp/pop) x
population
But equation can be used in different ways Now were using equation to account for deviations in
employment away from full employment in short-run
For this purpose, well need to make some adjustments to equation Real GDP = productivity x average hours x employment
55
Lets convert equation to percentage changes % real GDP = % productivity + %

employment
Finally, rearranging % employment (-0.3%) = % real GDP (2.9%) % productivity (3.2%)
Numbers in parentheses show actual percentage changes for each of these variables during 2002
56
Why didnt real GDP growth keep up with productivity? Because growth in real GDP was unusually low Productivity grew at about the same rate as average expansion, in
spite of the low growth in output Throughout period, firms were reluctant to hire full-time, permanent workers
Created uncertainty about strength and duration of expansion Instead, business expanded output by hiring part-time and temporary
workers
Why would this boost productivity? Enabled firms to adjust their workforce more easily to fluctuations in
production
Phrase jobless expansion refers to just part of expansion phase Eventually, employment catches upeven to higher levels of output
made possible by productivity growth
57

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Chapter 17 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply

Slides by John F. Hall

Aggregate Supply Curve

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

The Price Level and The Money Market

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

The Price Level and Net Exports

drop in net exports

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Deriving The Aggregate Demand (AD) Curve

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Figure 2: Deriving the Aggregate Demand Curve

Real GDP ($ Trillions)

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Movements Along The AD Curve

Its important to understand what happens in the economy as we make such

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Shifts of The AD Curve

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Changes in the Money Market

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Figure 4(a): Effects of Key Changes on the Aggregate Demand Curve

Figure 4(b): Effects of Key Changes on the Aggregate Demand Curve

Figure 4(c): Effects of Key Changes on the Aggregate Demand Curve

The Aggregate Supply Curve

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Costs and Prices

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Costs and Prices

Price level falls when there is an economy-wide decrease in unit costs

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

GDP, Costs, and the Price Level

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

The Short Run

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

The Short Run

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

The Short Run

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Deriving the Aggregate Supply Curve

A more accurate name for AS curve would be short-run-price-level-at-each-output-level curve

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Figure 5: The Aggregate Supply Curve

Real GDP ($ Trillions)

Movements Along the AS Curve

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Shifts of the AS Curve

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Figure 7(a): Effects of Key Changes on the Aggregate Supply Curve

Figure 7(b): Effects of Key Changes on the Aggregate Supply Curve

Figure 7(c): Effects of Key Changes on the Aggregate Supply Curve

Figure 8: Short-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium

Real GDP ($ Trillions)

What Happens When Things Change?

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

An Increase in Government Purchases

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

Figure 9: The Effect of a Demand Shock

130 115 100 E

Real GDP($ Trillions)

An Increase in Government Purchases

Lieberman & Hall; Introduction to Economics, 2005

An Decrease in Government Purchases