Subject: Mathematics
Topic: Probability using tree diagrams
and Venn diagrams
Std: X
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CAIE/X/21-22 Probability using tree diagrams and Venn diagrams
Probability Tree Diagram
A probability tree
Here is a tree diagram for the toss of a coin:
diagram shows all the
possible events.
0.5 Head
The first event is
represented by a dot.
From the dot, branches are 0.5 Tail
drawn to represent all
possible outcomes of the Probability tree diagram has two branches:
event. one for each possible outcome heads or tails.
The probability of each Outcome is located at the end-point of a
outcome is written on its branch (this is where a tree diagram ends).
branch.
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CAIE/X/21-22 Probability using tree diagrams and Venn diagrams
Probability Tree Diagram
Here is a tree diagram for the two tosses of a coin:
First flip Second flip Outcomes
0.5 Head Head, Head
0.5 Head
0.5 Tail Head, Tail
0.5
Head Tail, Head
0.5 Tail
0.5 Tail Tail, Tail
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CAIE/X/21-22 Probability using tree diagrams and Venn diagrams
Calculating probability from tree diagrams
This situation is
known as an
In the coin toss tree diagram That means that the outcome independent event.
example, the outcome of each of the first toss had no effect
coin flip is independent of on the probability of the
the outcome of the previous outcome of the second toss.
toss.
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CAIE/X/21-22 Probability using tree diagrams and Venn diagrams
Here is a tree diagram showing possible outcomes
for throwing a dice a tossing coin
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CAIE/X/21-22 Probability using tree diagrams and Venn diagrams
To find the probability of combined event on a tree diagram
For example the probability of throwing a 4
and getting an Tail is
Multiply the probabilities on
consecutive branches, 1
2
1
6
1
12
To find the probability when there is more than one favorable combination
or when event are mutually exclusive.
For example the probability of throwing a 4
Multiply the probabilities or 5 and getting an Tail is
on consecutive branches,
add the probabilities
obtained by multiplication 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
2 6 2 6 12 12 12 6
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CAIE/X/21-22 Probability using tree diagrams and Venn diagrams
Calculating probability from Venn diagram
Imagine there are two events: event A and event B.
If they both cannot happen at the same time then A and B are mutually exclusive.
Jim is going to roll a dice. Let’s say that event A is rolling an odd number
and event B is rolling the number 4.
Quite clearly these events are mutually exclusive because you cannot roll
both a 4 and an odd number with a single roll of a dice.
This is The fact that the two A 2,6 B
represented circles do not overlap
on a Venn shows that the two
diagram like 1,3,5 4
events are mutually
this: exclusive.
This means that the probability of A or B happening = the probability of A + the probability of
B.
This is written as P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).
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CAIE/X/21-22 Probability using tree diagrams and Venn diagrams
Calculating probability from Venn diagram
Use the Venn diagram to find the A B
following probabilities.
0.4 0.3
0.2
Sum of all
the values in 0.1
the diagram
is This diagram represents
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 1 the entire sample space for
two events.
Add the probability that only A occurs to probability 0.4 0.3 0.7
P(A)
that A and B occurs to get P(A) = 0.7
P(B) Add the probability that only B occurs to probability 0.2 0.3 0.5
that A and B occurs to get
P(B) = 0.5
Everything outside A overlap with everything outside B.
P ( A' B ' ) That will be the region outside of both circles and that P ( A' B ' ) 0.1
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CAIE/X/21-22 Probability using tree diagrams and Venn diagrams
Conditional probability
is used to work out the when we already
Conditional
probability of one know that another
probability
event happening has happened.
Conditional probability refers to situations where the probability of an event changes
or is dependent on other events having already happened.
If A and B are two events, then
the conditional probability that
A occurs given that B already
has is written as
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CAIE/X/21-22 Probability using tree diagrams and Venn diagrams
A frog climbing out of a well is affected by the weather. When it rains, he falls back down
the well with a probability of 1/10. In dry weather, he only falls back down with
probability of 1/25. The probability of rain is 1/5.
Find the probability that given he falls it was a rainy day.
Let's start by drawing the tree diagram of these events:
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CAIE/X/21-22 Probability using tree diagrams and Venn diagrams
Thank you
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CAIE/X/21-22 Probability using tree diagrams and Venn diagrams
