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Statistics
Probabilistic causation - because of this property we can only deal with probabilities of being correct or incorrect in our determination of differences in crime rates.
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Determining Causation
1. TIME-ORDER: the presumed cause must always precede the presumed effect 2. COVARIATION: the presumed cause and effect must vary with each other 3. ELIMINATION OF ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS: there must be no equally plausible explanations for the presumed effect
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One common way to define a policy problem is to measure it. (Stone, 2002)
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Not everyone is convinced of positivist approach The rational choice and cost/benefit analysis is said to miss out on a lot of the subjectivity of politics and policy analysis Even those who support the scientific method are skeptical of being able to quantify social and political phenomenon. What are some problems with apply statistical, quantitative methods to the social sciences?
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