European Debt Crisis

How does European Debt Crisis influence the interest rate in Euro Zone? How does European Debt Crisis influence the value of Euro dollar?

Recall GDP formula 
Recall that GDP is both total income in an economy and total expenditure on the economy¶s output of goods and services: Y = C + I + G + NX

Important identities 
Assume a closed economy ± one that does not engage in international trade: Y=C+I+G Now, subtract C and G from both sides of the equation: Y ± C ± G =I The left side of the equation is the total income in the economy after paying for consumption and government purchases and is called national saving, or just saving (S).  

Important identities: continued 
Substituting S for Y - C - G, the equation can be written as: S=I  National saving, or saving, is equal to: S=I S=Y±C±G S = (Y ± T ± C) + (T ± G)

Meaning of Saving 
National Saving  National saving is the total income in the economy that remains after paying for consumption and government purchases. Private Saving  Private saving is the amount of income that households have left after paying their taxes and paying for their consumption. Private saving = (Y ± T ± C) 

Meaning of Saving: Continued 
Public Saving  Public saving is the amount of tax revenue that the government has left after paying for its spending. Public saving = (T ± G)

Budget 
Surplus and Deficit
If T > G, the government runs a budget surplus because it receives more money than it spends.  The surplus of T - G represents public saving.  If G > T, the government runs a budget deficit because it spends more money than it receives in tax revenue. 

Saving = Investment? 
For the economy as a whole, saving must be equal to investment. S=I

Market for Loanable Funds 
Financial markets coordinate the economy¶s saving and investment in the market for loanable funds.  The market for loanable funds is the market in which those who want to save supply funds and those who want to borrow to invest demand funds.  Loanable funds refers to all income that people have chosen to save and lend out, rather than use for their own consumption.

Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds 
The supply of loanable funds comes from people who have extra income they want to save and lend out.  The demand for loanable funds comes from households and firms that wish to borrow to make investments.

Price of the Loan 
The interest rate is the price of the loan.  It represents the amount that borrowers pay for loans and the amount that lenders receive on their saving.  The interest rate in the market for loanable funds is the real interest rate.

Equilibrium 
Financial markets work much like other markets in the economy. 
The equilibrium of the supply and demand for loanable funds determines the real interest rate.

Interest Rate

Supply

5%

Demand

0

$1,200

Loanable Funds (in billions of dollars)
Copyright©2004 South-Western

Government Policies 
Government Policies That Affect Saving and Investment 
Taxes and saving  Taxes and investment  Government budget deficits

Saving Incentives: Tax Cut 
Taxes on interest income substantially reduce the future payoff from current saving and, as a result, reduce the incentive to save.  A tax decrease increases the incentive for households to save at any given interest rate. 
The supply of loanable funds curve shifts to the right.  The equilibrium interest rate decreases.  The quantity demanded for loanable funds increases.

Interest Rate

Supply, S1

S2

5% 4% 2. . . . which reduces the equilibrium interest rate . . .

1. Tax incentives for saving increase the supply of loanable funds . . . Demand

0

$1,200

$1,600

Loanable Funds (in billions of dollars)

3. . . . and raises the equilibrium quantity of loanable funds.
Copyright©2004 South-Western

Investment Incentives: Investment Tax Credit 
An investment tax credit increases the incentive to borrow. 
Increases the demand for loanable funds.  Shifts the demand curve to the right.  Results in a higher interest rate and a greater quantity saved.

Interest Rate

Supply 1. An investment tax credit increases the demand for loanable funds . . .

6% 5% 2. . . . which raises the equilibrium interest rate . . .

D2 Demand, D1

0

$1,200

$1,400

Loanable Funds (in billions of dollars)

3. . . . and raises the equilibrium quantity of loanable funds.
Copyright©2004 South-Western

Government Budget Deficit 
When the government spends more than it receives in tax revenues, the short fall is called the budget deficit.  The accumulation of past budget deficits is called the government debt.

Crowding Out 
Government borrowing to finance its budget deficit reduces the supply of loanable funds available to finance investment by households and firms.  This fall in investment is referred to as crowding out. 
The deficit borrowing crowds out private borrowers who are trying to finance investments.

Budget Deficit 
A budget deficit decreases the supply of loanable funds. 
Shifts the supply curve to the left.  Increases the equilibrium interest rate.  Reduces the equilibrium quantity of loanable funds.

Interest Rate

S2

Supply, S1

6% 5% 2. . . . which raises the equilibrium interest rate . . .

1. A budget deficit decreases the supply of loanable funds . . .

Demand

0

$800

$1,200

Loanable Funds (in billions of dollars)

3. . . . and reduces the equilibrium quantity of loanable funds.
Copyright©2004 South-Western

Net Capital Outflow
capital outflow refers to the purchase of foreign assets by domestic residents minus the purchase of domestic assets by foreigners. A U.S. resident buys stock in the Toyota corporation and a Mexican buys stock in the Ford Motor corporation. 
Net

Variables influencing Net Capital Outflow 
Variables

that Influence Net Capital

Outflow The real interest rates being paid on foreign assets. The real interest rates being paid on domestic assets. The perceived economic and political risks of holding assets abroad. The government policies that affect foreign

NX=NCO
Net exports (NX) and net capital outflow (NCO) are closely linked. For an economy as a whole, NX and NCO must balance each other so that: NCO = NX This holds true because every transaction that affects one side must also affect the other side by the same amount.

S=I + NCO
National saving is the income of the nation that is left after paying for current consumption and government purchases: S=Y - C - G = I + NX S=I + NCO National Saving = Investment + Net Capital Outflow

Nominal Exchange Rate
nominal exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the currency of one country for the currency of another. The nominal exchange rate is expressed in two ways: In units of foreign currency per one U.S. dollar. And in units of U.S. dollars per one unit of the foreign currency. 
The

Real Exchange Rate
real exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the goods and services of one country for the goods and services of another. The real exchange rate compares the prices of domestic goods and foreign goods in the domestic economy. If a case of German beer is twice as expensive as American beer, the real exchange rate is 1/2 case of German beer per case of American beer. 
The

Formula
Nominal exchange rate v Domestic price Real exchange rate = Foreign price

The Market for Loanable Funds
Real Interest Rate Supply of loanable funds (from national saving)

Equilibrium real interest rate

Demand for loanable funds (for domestic investment and net capital outflow) Equilibrium quantity Quantity of Loanable Funds
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning

Foreign-Currency Exchange Market
The two sides of the foreign-currency exchange market are represented by NCO and NX. NCO represents the imbalance between the purchases and sales of capital assets. NX represents the imbalance between exports and imports of goods and services

The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange
Real Exchange Rate

Supply of dollars (from net capital outflow)

Equilibrium real exchange rate Demand for dollars (for net exports)

Equilibrium quantity

Quantity of Dollars Exchanged into Foreign Currency
Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning

Equilibrium in Open Economy
In the market for loanable funds, supply comes from national saving and demand comes from domestic investment and net capital outflow. In the market for foreign-currency exchange, supply comes from net capital outflow and demand comes from net exports.

Equilibrium in Open Economy
Net capital outflow links the loanable funds market and the foreign-currency exchange market. The key determinant of net capital outflow is the real interest rate.

How Net Capital Outflow Depends on the Interest Rate
Real Interest Rate

Net capital outflow is negative.

0

Net capital outflow is positive.

Net Capital Outflow

Equilibrium in Open Economy
Prices in the loanable funds market and the foreign-currency exchange market adjust simultaneously to balance supply and demand in these two markets. As they do, they determine the macroeconomic variables of national saving, domestic investment, net foreign investment, and net exports.

The Real Equilibrium in an Open Economy
(a) The Market for Loanable Funds Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate (b) Net Capital Outflow Supply

r

r

Demand Quantity of Loanable Funds

Net capital outflow, NCO Net Capital Outflow

Real Exchange Rate

Supply

E

Demand Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

Policies
The magnitude and variation in important macroeconomic variables depend on the following: Government budget deficits Trade policies Political and economic stability

Government Budget Deficits
In an open economy, government budget deficits . . . reduce the supply of loanable funds, drive up the interest rate, crowd out domestic investment, cause net foreign investment to fall.

The Effects of Government Budget Deficit
(a) The Market for Loanable Funds Real Interest Rate r2 r 2. . . . which increases the real interest rate . . . B A r 3. . . . which in turn reduces net capital outflow. S S 1. A budget deficit reduces (b) Net Capital Outflow the supply of loanable funds . . . Real Interest Rate r2

Demand Quantity of Loanable Funds

NCO Net Capital Outflow

Real Exchange Rate

S

S 4. The decrease in net capital outflow reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency . . .

E2 5. . . . which causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. E1

Demand Quantity of Dollars

Trade Policy
trade policy is a government policy that directly influences the quantity of goods and services that a country imports or exports. Tariff: A tax on an imported good. Import quota: A limit on the quantity of a good produced abroad and sold domestically. 
A

The Effects of an Import Quota
(a) The Market for Loanable Funds Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate (b) Net Capital Outflow Supply

r

r 3. Net exports, however, remain the same. NCO Quantity of Loanable Funds Net Capital Outflow

Demand

Real Exchange Rate

Supply 1. An import quota increases the demand for dollars . . .

E2 2. . . . and causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. E

D D Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

Capital Flight 
Capital

flight is a large and sudden reduction in the demand for assets located in a country. Capital flight has its largest impact on the country from which the capital is fleeing, but it also affects other countries. If investors become concerned about the safety of their investments, capital can quickly leave an economy. Interest rates increase and the domestic currency depreciates.

The Effects of Capital Flight
(a) The Market for Loanable Funds in Mexico Real Interest Rate r2 Supply Real Interest Rate r2 (b) Mexican Net Capital Outflow 1. An increase in net capital outflow. . .

r1 3. . . . which increases the interest rate. 2. . . . increases the demand for loanable funds . . . D2 D1 Quantity of Loanable Funds

r1

NCO1

NCO2 Net Capital Outflow

Real Exchange Rate

S

S2 4. At the same time, the increase in net capital outflow increases the supply of pesos . . .

E 5. . . . which causes the peso to depreciate. E

Demand

Quantity of Pesos (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

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