Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Philip Kotler
Kellogg School of Management
Communicating value
Creating value
Chapter 3
1. Importance of Information and MIS 2. Internal MIS Some literature 1. Level 01 - Customers calls this as the a. Order to Payment Cycle b. Sales Information System 3C Analysis c. Databases, warehousing [Kotler doesnt] d. Market Intelligence System 2. Level 02 - Competitors 1. Ways in which Competition can come 2. Ways to get Competitor Information 3. Case Study 03 Tata Motors Tata Ace 4. External MIS [Knowing Climate] 1. Level 03 Market 1. Attractiveness Some other 2. Profitability etc literature adds 2. Level 04 - Environment Company & 1. Demographic Environment Collaborators 2. Economic Environment also into this list 3. Socio-Cultural Environment and calls it the 4. Natural Environment 5. Technological Environment 6. Political-Legal Environment 5C Analysis 5. Case Study 05 Strategic Intent Of Marketing
[Again Kotler doesnt]
Of Marketing
Segmentation Market Definition, Choice of Variable etc Targeting Segment Attractiveness, Segment Profitability,
Internal Core Competence etc Category definition etc
Positioning Point of Parity [POP], Point of Difference [POD], Product Strategy Make or buy, innovate or adapt, levels of
differentiation, product length, width etc
Make or Buy Innovate or Adapt Channel or Direct Cost + or Market Minus Bat or Field
Measurability Latent consumer needs Future Growth patterns Competitor Moves Pitch, Weather
Thus any Marketing Decision is driven by An assorted aggregate of Uncertain Information Each of which has an A-priori Probabilistic Assumption & a A-posteriori Data-driven Verification
Every Decision has its own Risk-Benefit Tradeoff Most decisions have an Equally Viable Alternative Given such Dynamic Boundary Conditions, how do you decide?
Customer Related 1. 2. 3. 4. The Order to Payment Cycle Sales Information System Databases, Data warehousing Market Intelligence System
Environment Related 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Demographic Environment Economic Environment Socio-Cultural Environment Natural Environment Technological Environment Political-Legal Environment
Competitor Related 1. 2. Ways in which Competition can come Ways to get Competitor Information
For defining Who Your Potential Customers are . . . You have to first define Which Your Potential Market is . . . When we Aggregate
Route 01 : Order
to Payment Cycle
Results Data OR Transactional Data Data that links Sales, Channel and Customer
In any Business - For reasons that we will see later There will be 3 types of customers Individually From the Profitable Profitability point of view
Neither here nor there
C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 C16 C17 C18
Why have the whites & the maroons when we can get away with the Greens Only?
Individually Profitable
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Mandatory sale that needs to happen to mop up fixed cost with minimal individual contribution [Faster way to reach breakeven] More or less any production line product Currently heavily discounted customers. Once they fall in for the product / service, the price point can be slowly hiked up [All early birdcompanies which sell direct +schemes direct will be for profit For type offers] Pre / Post paid channel, [Green ones], while the channel will be for volumes [white ones] Say a shirt maker who is also into direct retail In some cases, production can be made only in lot quantities. The excess has to be sold at no profit no loss such that the remaining ones make profit [ Annual Subscriptions HBR type]
9 C 1 0 C 1 1 C 1 2 C 1 3 C 1 4 C 1 5 C 1 6 C 1 7 C 1 8 C 1 9 C 2 0 C 2 1 C 2 2
7 C
C 1
C 2
C 3
Maroons are Loss leaders - Prestigious customers, but will not pay the right price But if you do not have such a customer in your client list, you lose credibility If the above chart is that of P&G, then one of the maroon customers is Wal mart. Other examples: Major Government orders Sale to educational / charitable institutions Bad debt sales [Not a planned / designed maroon, but an incidental maroon]
Can we avoid the maroons & whites & live only with the greens? NO
The real profitable ones (green) will come only after acquiring white & maroon ones. Drop the maroons & whites - the green will also disappear!!
Customers :
4000
1000 500 0 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C9 C10 C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 C16 C17 C18
10 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 -10
C.P. Cash 20 10 in
20 30 40 45 50 55 55 55 45
Route 02 : Sales
Information System
Demand Forecasting
Approach 01: Time
1. Moving Average Method 2. Weighted Moving Average Method 3. Exponential Smoothening Method 4. Trend Projection Method
Series Method
Basic Assumption
Past is a good guide to the future
4. Random Variations
Demand Forecasting
Approach 02: Causal
Sales of Automobiles
(y) is driven by 1. Real Disposable Income 2. Pricing of automobiles 3. Amount of advertisement 4. Cycle of economy 5. Development of roads
Method
Agricultural yield to
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. the consuming markets (y) Rainfall Acreage of cultivation Seed quality Soil quality Fertilizer consumption Product perishability Warehousing facilities Supply Chain Efficiency
Route 03 : Databases,
Warehoused data OR Non-live data Sales information is dynamic Warehoused information is relatively static
Data Base
Customer
Database
Purchase recency Purchase frequency Ave. purchase value
Product
Database
Geographic acceptance Demographic acceptance Price point of ave. sale
Salesperson
Database
PGWPM
Route 04 : The
Happenings Data OR Interactional Data Books, journals, newspapers data To get it To get it Informal conversations with stakeholders e-data via social networking sites e-mails, blogs etc Sales force with ear on ground Intermediaries trained to pass information Customer advisory panels / help desks Government data sources [Secondary] Purchase info from professional agencies
OR
Transactional Data
Warehoused data
In Customer Analysis we try to define the broadest possible customer space In Competitor Analysis we do a similar broad angle Competitors Competitor Space hunt for all Competitors
Pepsi, Thums Up + Miranda, Fanta, Sprite . + Frooti, Aapy, Real, Tropicana + Mineral Water Cola Market Carbonated Drinks Market Chilled Soft Drinks Market Thirst quencher Market Alcoholic + Non Beverages Market Starbucks doesnt vend coffee, they sell a lifestyle. They have eaten into the US cola market !!!
For
COKE
+ All forms of Beer With all these definitions, Starbucks still does not come because
The Competition is
Coke is in the cluttered Red Ocean market of Beverages Starbucks is in the Blue Ocean market of lifestyle
For Air Deccan, the First Class Railway Traveller is the target market
FIVE Axes/ Parameters for Analyzing 1. Market Expansion Potential Competitor Space
ai expanding to Indian Market has hit Marutis market share in the lower
arts India expansion [The Mittal way] will affect the Pantaloons of the pla pl
2. Product Expansion
a Coming to Salt market, Tea Market for that matter any new market
ul getting into beverages market [Pan Indian Market Taste of India Tag
FIVE Axes/ Parameters for Analyzing 3. Backward Integration Potential Competitor Space
Auto [Customer]
Auto Major buying out an Ancillary A pharma company buying a bottle unit Retailers who start their private labelAncillary [Supplier]
4. Forward Integration
at will happen to Intel Inside computers like Compaq, HP, DELL etc?
We have so far looked at how Competition can come Let us now look at how to get Competitor Info Independent Goods & services review forums Auto magazines [for automobiles], Pagalguy.com [for BSchools], third party rating agencies [Like Outlook ratings] Distributor / Sales Agent Feedback sites Open sites with 3rd party access. Not very common in India Combo sites offering customer views & expert opinions High tech products like Cisco, Fin. Services products like Oracle Finance Public Blogs [Difficult to authenticate. There could be planted blogs also]
Do a cross tab between functional market segments and customer market segments. Do an OT analysis.
Outsourcing would allow Tata Motors to convert fixed cost of production to variable cost which would be beneficial in a market turndown - Explain
What will be the effect of Tata Motors new launch Tata NANO- on Tata Ace
Explain the Pyramid segmentation of Page # 18 for some other product / industry.
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Environment
Competitors
Customers
Space just outside customers & Competitors [Not covered by Kotler] Customer Space Competitor Space
Attractiveness Profitability Growth Potential Cost Structure Trends / Fads Success Factors
Where customer-competitor spaces converge The space beyond individual firms The space with its own generic dynamics
Attractivene ss
Actual & Potential Market size Hostility in market Entry / Exit barriers Current Economy cycle CAPEX / OPEX requirement
Profitability
Long term & Short term ROI Intensity of competition Bargaining power of buyers / suppliers Presence of sub markets
Growth Potential
PDLC phase (the BCG picture) Cash flow management + Strategic SBU priority from an internal point of view
Cost Structure
Criticality of Fixed cost for CAPEX / OPEX breakeven Criticality of Variable cost for Pricing &
Trends / Fads
Long term, buying driven, customer driven TRENDS Short term, notion driven, product driven - FADS
Success Factors
Pre-ownership of assets and / or competencies Current synergies in terms of capacities, S&D force, technology know how etc Marginal costing skills by
No.
Dimension of
Current Examples of Indian Industries High Real Estate Fad Markets [Dress, Film Music etc] Cosmetics
(Post twin success of Ash / Sush)
Market Analysis
1 Long Term ROI 2 Short Term ROI 3 Actual Market Size 4 Potential Market Size 5 Market Growth 6 Market Profitability 7 Cost Structure 8 Trends / Dynamics 9 Threat Perceptions
Low Spec. Stock Markets High CAPEX industries [Shipping, Mining] Fax, Pagers, Manual typewriter, Housewives Ski Equipment, French / European movies Fountain pens Tyre Industry, L.E. Education Lower end Service Ind.
[Low Entry / Exit Barriers]
Electric Cars, RTE food, Foreign Tour Operators Mobile Phone, Plasma TV Pharma, IT, H.E. Education Capex intensive
[High Entry / Exit Barriers]
No. In an Infrastructure boom [say current China], there is tremendous growth in Cement & Steel Industry. But that does not make those industries suddenly more profitable [In margin terms]. Profits will increase [because on volumes] but not profitability Again, high growth industries are highly volatile / hostile industries. Hence price undercutting for gaining market share is common. This can reduce profitability. E.g.: Computer Hardware, 100 cc 2 wheeler market, Lower end handset market
Does the vice versa hold good? Low growth means Low Profitability?
Again Not necessarily. Cosmetic Surgery will no day become a high growth market. It will be a peripheral market. But profits huge. Utilities Market Not much growth, but steady profits
It Depends. For the Cigarette industry yes. The regulatory threat that the product is facing worldwide will eventually stifle its market itself But not so for Airline industry. Threat is Profitability driven & Risk driven. But Market Growth is Disposable income driven & Lifestyle driven. Hence booming market despite high threat perceptions
Are long term & Short term returns two different ball games? All industries do not assure long term & short term ROI Both Long term & Short term : Coca Cola -Market / brand leadership for decades, beer / alcohols , IT [In the present Indian context] More of long term : Real Estate, Shipping, Pharma, Petrochem More of short term : All fads, film stars (particularly heroine) careers, designer wear, microprocessor chip
Customer Space
+
Competitor Space
+
Market Space
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
The space that is JUST ONE STEP removed from the Market A space with immediate business relevance The space where relevant scenarios unfold Singur, Nandigram, Telecom & FDI, BPO & Cultural shock, Cyber crime,
Obama & Presidency, Chinese learning English, Assault of Indian students in Australia, France and Purdah Comments of French President etc - YES
Before we look at each force separately Let us see whether they have a cumulative interactive effect
Explosive population growth [Demographic] Leads to resource depletion & pollution [Natural] Hence consumers ask for stringent laws [Political Legal] This stimulates new products/solutions ... [Technological] Which, if they are affordable [Economical] May change attitudes & behavior [Socio Cultural]
Today . . .
HUF is almost gone Family sizes have become small More of working wives Kids have seen readymade garments There is no time in todays world
15 20 years back
India had large families (mostly undivided) Our disposable incomes were lower Families always had a housewife Kids were less finicky on what they wore Home made dresses were accepted
Drivers
1.
2.
3.
1. Swatch watches & Youth 2. Bluetooth, camera, FM radio, MP3 player, gaming etc inside mobiles are youth 3. E-mail access, data storage, GPS positioning etc inside mobile for the traveling professional 4. Low denomination recharge coupons for the penny conscious market 5. Hinglish music channels like MTV and Channel V for the urban youth 6. Valentines day cards for the new promiscuous urbanite
1. Scooters [partly demographic, partly social-cultural] 2. Typewriters [partly demographic, partly technology] 3. Fountain pens 4. Big size but non-luxury houses 5. Half Sari [Davani], pavadai-blouse etc the teen south Indian girls ethnic dress landscape [Again partly demographic, partly cultural]
Demographic Landscape and India China had a demographic dividend in the 1980s 40% of its population Advantage of age. Productivity boomed with double digit was less than 25 years
GDP growth.
But now the same population has started aging [by 2020, 20% of Chinese will be over 60. This translates to more pension funds, less productivity, more healthcare, less buying power]
India is going to start the same cycle. 40% of us are less than 25 The Saavariya age When BRIC story started there were 4 contenders. In a decade it became
Chindia. 2 fell on the way. Another decade down will it be ONLY INDIA ?
1. Current Income [individual and aggregate] / Disposable Income 2. Prices / Price Range / Outliers in Price Range 3. Credit / Availability as well as culture of credit buys 4. Saving tendency [again individual and aggregate] 5. GDP / a holistic indicator of purchasing power / PPP 6. Consumerism / has got elements of demographic & Socio-cultural 7. Inflation 8. Unemployment 9. Liquidity 10.Discretionary goods spending
Prices Go up Inflation
RBI raises Interest Rate Higher Cost of Borrowings Liquidity Squeeze Demand Falls
Landscap e
Govt Concerned Recession Trend Fall in Industrial Growth Vote Banks Unemployment Markets fall / FII pullout
Markets start again becoming buoyant FDI / FII / Demand all return
Current Slowdown
Laid the foundations as Indias FM yesterday . . . . . . Consolidating the gains as our PM today
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1980-1981 1982-1983 1984-1985 1988-1989 1990-1991 1986-1987
% th Rate of 3 Hindu Grow
: % 03 20 f 5-6 o t o te 91 19 h Ra t ow Gr
30 billion USD
[1980]
1991
117
1992-1993
1996-1997
1998-1999
2000-2001
2002-2003
2006-2007
1994-1995
2004-2005
Indian GDP
1028
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
100
Significantly faster GDP Growth for India Vis-a-vis USA
47
0 1980
India
33 Times in 25 years 6 times after Economic Liberalization Doubled after 2000
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980
1981
GDP
GDP
1991
39 Times
2001
20 Times
2006
13 Times
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Housewives need lesser numbers of dresses BUT at higher price points with lots of ostentation Working women need more numbers of dresses BUT at lower price points with subdued colors & subtlety
Valentines Day & BJP / RSS / Bajrang Dals Moral Policing Tamil Cables blackout of Hindi Channels [ZEE, Star etc] TV Channel censorship by Sushma Suraj Surrogate Alcohol Ads Islamic banking
Coca Cola and Plachimada problem Mavoor Rayons (Birla) and Chaliyar River polution Euro 2 norms, emission and Auto Industry Refrigeration industry and ozone layer depletion and global warming Non-renewable energy sources Five levels of Environment friendly consumers True Blue Greens [30%] Perpetually committed Green back Greens [10%] More likely to choose green Sprouts [26%] Fence sitters. Green, if it suits them Grousers [15%] Individual behavior cannot change environment Apathetics [18%] Dont care about environment
Disruptive emergence of
Positive Impact of Technology RFID / bar coding & Retail [Automatic Inventory Management] Laser technology & eye surgery Webcam, Internet telephony & long distance spouse calls Satellite imaging and crop forecasting [Commodities market] Laptops + mobiles The anytime, anywhere, 24/7 office
Negative Impact of Technology DTH and its potential impact on Cable TV operators ATM & fall in banking recruitment I-Banking, E-banking etc and its potential for cyber related crime e-commerce Vs. physical space driven commerce [Amazon. COM] i-pod is killing walkman, DVD is killing CD, CD killed Floppy etc
Regulations can
make or mar entire industries change the competitive landscape & alter profitability (increase or decrease) In todays globalized environment, impact of regulations is also global Sub prime crisis erupts in far away (?) USA Fed [US Federal reserve] responds with interest rate cut Regulatory Dollar weakens against rupee following rate cut Indian IMPEX markets profitability affected !!! Driver is US regulation
More examples of regulatory measures with business impact are: Prohibition FDI [opening up as well as changing cap] Steep tax increase YOY on all tobacco related products Interoperability of Set top boxes for all DTH providers AICTE / UGC approval for new courses, foreign tie ups etc
Assignment 2nd of 10 [3 marks] If you carefully examine the positions taken by two leading strategists of the 60s, you will observe a Stark Contrast. Hidden in that contrast would be some Subtle Commonalities too. The strategists in mention are: 1.Theodore Levitt - Marketing Myopia 2.Igor Ansoff - Ansoff Grid Discuss the contrasts and the commonalities in brief [Not more than 1 page each]
Correlate the case with the 6 Environments that we just saw. Which 2 environs is Aamir using?
Generate a 2 page note - one for each environment - as applicable to the 3 idiots case
What does CKP mean by Changing Terms of Engagement? Give own as well as case examples
Surrender becomes inevitable Discuss the Honda Vs. Harley Davidson case. Can you think of any Indian examples?
Examples of Change
Terms of Engagement
Case 05
CKP
Military DELL
Guerilla Tactics [Vietnam] Suicide Squads / Civilians as Front end [LTTE] Non-retaliation [Mahatma Gandhi] No Dealer / retailer Network No installments Only Cash & Carry Only e-booking No investment in stocking No investment in costly space with charges for rent, utilities, salaries 24 / 7 access Extensive catalog information with abstracts Home delivery No Consumables / Zero consumable cost Only initial investment, no running costs Superior Quality Amenable to post shoot processing [color, brightness, contrast] Immediate replays / on the spot corrections Same equipment can take stills & Video shoots
Case 05
CKP
Underestimated Resourcefulness
Sense of Inevitability
The Harley Davidson Route
A closer home Example @ PGPM Term 05: The Last Empty Rhetoric Lost Battles
Sau saal pahele, muche tum se pyaar tha (2) Aaj bhi hai aur kal bhi rahega
Sense of Inevitability But the writing is already there on the wall Term 06: The First Pinch of Doubt
Imtihah ho gaye intezar ki, hai na kuch khabar mere yaar ki Intezar ki..
Retreat & Exit Fight, Negotiate or Surrender Term 07: The Final Surrender
Pather ke sanam, tuche ham ne, mohabaat ka, And then maana, kahin Khudathey happily get married bhool huyi
(To
someone else!!!)
Post Script