Consequence Modelling
Ensafe Technologies
Source & Dispersion Modeling
Source Modeling
Consequence models
Release of volatile hazardous substances
Discharge and dispersion model
Flammable release
Fire & Explosion model Toxic release
Effect model
Mitigation factors
Risk calculation
Release of volatile hazardous substance
Gas discharge Two phase discharge Liquid discharge
Flash
Turbulent Gas cloud
Free jet dispersion
dispersion
Gas and aerosol Liquid
rainout
Gas and Vaporisation
Neutral Dense aerosol
buoyancy gas turbulent free
model model jet dispersion
Select hole size
T, P Determine phase of discharge
Gas
Liquid
Two phase
Pressurised Fire relief
Total pressure head
(p, pa, h)
Sonic/subsonic Heat flux
(p, pa, ) (A,F)
Calculate Calculate Calculate Calculate
discharge rate discharge rate discharge rate discharge rate,
equation, equation, equation, G2P, (Cp, Vfg, hfg)
Gv (Cd) Grv (hfg) GL (Cd, p)
Hole size
• World Bank use 20% & 100% pipe diameter
• 0.2, 1, 4 and 6 inches and full bore ruptures for pipe less than 6 in.
• 90% of all pipe failures result in hole size less than 50% of pipe
area.
• Suggestion:
For piping <1.5 in use ¼ in and full bore ruptures
For piping 2-6 in use ¼ in, 1 in, full bore ruptures
For piping 8-12 in use ¼ in, 1 in, 4 in, full bore ruptures
For vessel assume complete failure of incoming and outgoing
lines
For pumps, suction and discharge lines, seal leak, ¼ in, 1 in, 4
in.
Leak duration
• DOT LNG standard specifies a 10-min leak
• Rijnmond Report recommends 3-min if there is a leak
detection system combined with remotely actuated isolation
valve.
• 5 to 10 min leak duration should be proper if detection and
actuation are adequately addressed and rehearsed
appropriately.
Gas discharge calculation
Step 1: Calculate ratio r using Eq.(1)
Step 2: Check condition for gas discharge velocity from leak is sonic
Eq.(2)
where
Ps= absolute upstream (storage pressure N/m2)
Pa = absolute downstream (atm pr. N/m2)
= gas specific heat , Cp/Cv (unit less)
Step 3 : Calculate X
Step 4 : Calculate gas mass flow rate through an orifice ,G v
where
Gv = gas discharge rate (kg/s)
Cd = discharge coefficient (0.8)
A = Hole area , (m2)
Ps = absolute storage pressure (N/m2)
M = gas molecular weight (kg/kg-mol)
R = gas const (8314 J/kg-mol/oK
T = Storage temperature (oK)
Liquid discharge calculation
Step 1 : Calculate Discharge of pure liquid,GL using Eq. (5)
where
GL= Liquid Mass Emission rate (kg/s)
Cd = discharge coefficient ( dimension less 0.6-0.64)
A = Discharge Hole area , (m2)
l = liquid density (kg/m3)
p = liquid storage pressure (N/m2)
Pa= downstream (ambient) pressure (N/m2 absolute)
g = acceleration of gravity (9.81 m/s2)
H = Height of liquid above hole (m)
Two phase discharge
• Pressurised liquid above its normal boiling point will start to
flash and two-phase flow will result.
• Two-phase flow will occur from depressurisation of the vapour
space above a mass of volatile liquid
• Two phase flow rate, G2p = A(Gsub2+GERM2/N)1/2
Sub-cooled mass flux Gsub= CD(2f gc (P-Psat))1/2
For saturated liquids, equilibrium is reached if the
discharge pipe size is greater than 0.1 m l>10d
Equilibrium mass flux GERM=(hfg/vfg) (gc/(TCp))1/2
Non equilibrium parameter
N=(hfg2 /(2 p f CD2vfg2TCp))+L/Lc
Discharge from tanks exposed to fire
• Discharge from a relief due to fire exposure NFPA & API.
• NFPA 30 recommends for heat flux values through the tank wall
based on wetted surface for atmospheric tanks.
• NFPA 58 for LPG recommends heat flux based on total tank area
rather than wetted surface area although little heat transfer occurs
through the non wetted portion.
• Gas discharge rate Grv=Qf/hfg=(34,000FA0.82)/hfg
F=0.3 for water spray protection over the tank surface
F=0.15 for water spray with good drainage
• API 520 recommends a similar formula applicable to pressurised
storage of liquids at or near boiling point where liquid have higher
molecular weight than Butane
Flash
• Liquid stored under pressure will flash to vapour
when released to atmosphere.
• The vapour produced may entrain a significant
quantity of liquid as droplets .
• Some liquid rainout to ground & some remain
suspended with likely evaporation.
• The liquid remaining behind is likely to form a boiling
pool which will continue to evaporate, resulting in
additional vapour loading into the air.
• Example of superheated release is release of
chlorine or ammonia from a pressurised container
stored at ambient temperature
Flash evaporation theory
• During flash significant fraction of liquid may remain
suspended as aerosol.
• In some cases ground boil off of the rainout may be
rapid and all discharge may enter the cloud
immediately.
• In other cases quantity of liquid may be great that it
cools ground enough to sufficiently reduce surface
vaporisation.
• Temperature of pool may be below boiling point due
to evaporative cooling.
• For cold liquids on warm substrates, a large boil is
followed by low vaporisation. These are dominated by
heat transfer.
Flashed fraction from liquid
• For Superheated liquids (i.e. stored above the normal
boiling point ), a fraction of liquid emission is flashed to
vapor as pressure is reduced to ambient
Step 1 : Calculate flash fraction Fv using Eq. (6)
…(6)
where
T= Process line/vessel temperature
Tb= Normal boiling point temperature
Hvap = Heat of Vaporisation at normal
pressure
Formation of aerosols
• Mechanisms: mechanical and thermal.
• Mechanical mechanism assumes release occur at
high speed to cause surface stress
• Stresses cause liquid droplets to breakup.
• At low degrees of superheat, mechanical formation of
aerosols dominates and droplet break-up depends on
inertial/shear forces.
• Thermal mechanism assumes breakup is caused by
the flashing of liquid to vapour.
• At high superheat, flashing mechanism dominates,
producing smaller droplets.
Flash evaporation entrainment
Aerosol entrainment has very significant effects on
cloud dispersion that include:
The cloud will have larger total mass
There will be an aerosol component (contributing
to higher cloud density)
Evaporating aerosol can reduce the temperature
below the ambient atmospheric temperature
(contributing to higher cloud density)
Colder cloud temperature cause additional
condensation of atmospheric moisture
(contributing to higher cloud density)
Pool evaporation
• If the liquid released from the containment is not
superheated, but has a high vapour pressure then vapour
emissions will arise from surface of the resulting pools.
• The total emission rate of the vapour from the surface will
largely depend on volatility of liquid released and surface
area.
• Loss of containment of materials like benzene will result in
pool evaporation.
• These models are dominated by mass transfer.
• Wind & solar radiation affect evaporation rate.
Pool evaporation calculations
• Evaporation from liquid spills onto land and water has
received much attention.
• Land spills are better defined as many spills occur into
a dike or other retention system that allows the pool
size to be estimated.
• Spills onto water are unbounded.
• Vaporisation from a pool is determined using a total
energy balance on the pool.
mCp dT/dt = H - Lme
Evaporating pool
Many cases the hazardous material does not evaporate
before it hits the ground surface, and in that case we have
to use pool evaporation model.
…(7)
where
Ge= Evaporative emission rate (kg/s)
A = Discharge Hole area , (m2)
pvp = Vapour pressure , (N/m2)
M = Molecular weight (kg/kg-mol)
R = Gas constant (8314 J/kg-mol/oK)
Tp= Pool temperature (oK)
kg= mass transfer coefficient (m/s)
Evaporating pool
The parameter kg can be calculated using formula
kgo= mass transfer coefficient for reference
substance
Mo = molecular weight for reference substance
Alternatively , where wind is present
where
Dm= molecular diffusivity of the vapour in air (m2/s)
d = effective pool diameter , NSh= Sherwood number
km= kinematic viscosity
u = wind speed at 10 m over the pool (m/s)
Pool evaporation
Factors for the Properties of Physical
spill rate materials condition
Tank pressure, Heat of vaporization, Ambient temperature,
liquid height, heat capacity, liquid ground density,
hole diameter, density, emissivity, thermal conductivity,
density viscosity solar radiation,
wind speed
Combine input data and
calculate
Spill rate, pool growth, heat and mass
transfer
Results – Evaporation rate versus spill
time
Thank You
