33

49
16
0
20
40
60
Lrhllch ?oung undeclded
30
Strong
3S
Strong
Lhr||ch no|ds oung to Under S0 W|th Leaners And
Near|y 1|es n|m Among "Def|n|te" Supporters

1C: lnLeresLed arLles
IkCM: Aaron SLrauss, uCCC ulrecLor of 1argeLlng and uaLa
kL: lL-13 uCCC lv8 8esulLs
DA1L: !uly 23, 2012

Whlle pundlLs ln WashlngLon, uC and llorlda generally belleve LhaL uemocraLs cannoL plck-up lL-13 unLll
8epresenLaLlve 8lll ?oung reLlres, !esslca Lhrllch has a real shoL aL wlnnlng Lhls SL. eLersburg-based seaL. ln
facL, Lhrllch currenLly holds 8epresenLaLlve ?oung under 30, before she has even lnLroduced herself Lo Lhe
dlsLrlcL. ?oung's challenge ls LhaL he ls noL LhaL well-known, noL well-llked and noL well-funded.

ln Lhe horserace, ?oung does noL reach Lhe 30 Lhreshold, Lhough he leads Lhrllch 49 Lo 33. Cruclally, Lhls
lead ls LenLaLlve: among voLers who deflnlLely" know
whom Lhey are voLlng for, Lhe 8epubllcan lncumbenL
only leads by flve percenLage polnLs (33 Lo 30).

1he newly-drawn 13
Lh
congresslonal dlsLrlcL ls a classlc
swlng dlsLrlcL. ln 2008, Lhen-SenaLor Cbama won 32
of Lhe Lwo-parLy voLe, ln 2004, Ceorge W. 8ush also won
wlLh 32 of Lhe Lwo-parLy voLe. (When voLers ln Lhls
survey were asked abouL Lhe 2008 elecLlon, Cbama led
McCaln by 4 polnLs-ldenLlcal Lo Lhe acLual margln.)

8lll ?oung, havlng been flrsL elecLed ln 1970, ls Lhe
longesL-servlng 8epubllcan member of Lhe Pouse, and
consldered Lo be well known ln Lhe 1ampa markeL.
Powever, 17 of Lhe new 13
Lh
ulsLrlcL ls new Lo
8epresenLaLlve ?oung. So whlle lL ls noL surprlslng LhaL 21 of hls new elecLoraLe have never heard of ?oung, lL
ls a bad slgn LhaL oootbet 20 of Lhe elecLoraLe cannoL raLe Lhe Congressman.

Among Lhose voLers who can raLe 8lll ?oung, Lhe Congressman barely sLays rlghL-slde up. AbouL one-Lhlrd (32)
of Lhe elecLoraLe raLe hlm favorably, and sllghLly less (27) have an unfavorable vlew. 1hls
favorable/unfavorable raLlo of [usL over 1:1 ls lacklusLer for a long-Lerm lncumbenL.

Lhrllch, who has [usL sLarLed voLer conLacL, ls an unknown quanLlLy. Cnly 10 of Lhe elecLoraLe can raLe her.
When voLers do learn abouL Lhrllch, Lhey are favorably dlsposed. Per favorable percenLage ls more Lhan Lwlce
her unfavorable percenLage (7 favorable, 3 unfavorable).

Congressman ?oung wlll also face dlfflculLy ln defendlng hls Lenure ln WashlngLon slnce he enLered !uly wlLh
only $323,000 cash on hand - a record low for an elecLlon year slnce aL leasL 2002. ln Lhrllch's flrsL full quarLer ln
Lhe race, she ouLralsed 8lll ?oung by over $10,000.

ln sum, 8lll ?oung ls vulnerable and, wlLh a broad and compelllng campalgn, !esslca Lhrllch can unseaL hlm.

1be Joto lo tbls memo ls ftom o sotvey of J08 llkely 2012 votets cooJocteJ Ioly 18, 2012 lo llotlJos oew 1J
tb
cooqtessloool
Jlsttlct wltb o motqlo of ettot of --5.6X. kespooJeots lofotmotloo come ftom tbe votet flle ooJ tespooJeots wete
lotetvleweJ ovet tbe pbooe by oo ootomoteJ sotvey.