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Tulsi Gabbard For Congress The Mellman Group, Inc. Hawaii 2nd CD Democratic Primary Survey July 23, 2012

This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 400 voters comprising the likely Democratic primary electorate in Hawaiis 2nd Congressional District who were interviewed by telephone July 19-22, 2012. The study uses a registration based sample of likely voters. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.

Tulsi Gabbard has eclipsed Mufi Hannemann and is now the front-runner in the race to succeed Rep. Mazie Hirono in the U.S. House of Representatives. Tulsi Gabbard Leads Mufi Hannemann In The 2nd Congressional District Democratic Primary With less than three weeks to go until the Democratic Primary election in Hawaiis 2nd Congressional District, Honolulu City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard now holds a 5 point lead over former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (37% Gabbard, 32% Hannemann). This represents a sea change in the race since our previous poll, conducted in April, where Hannemann led Gabbard by 26-points. Indeed, Gabbards share of the vote has increased 21 points, while Hannemann has actually shed 10 points over the last 3 months. Esther Kiaaina (7%) and Bob Marx (7%) remain mired in the single digits. Among the 73% of voters who know both Gabbard and Hannemann, Gabbard leads by a vast 44% to 26% margin, suggesting her lead could well grow as she becomes better known. Tulsi Gabbards Lead Is Grounded In Her Significantly Stronger Image While Tulsi Gabbard has become much better-known and better-liked since April, Hannemanns image has actually deteriorated. Gabbards hard name ID has increased by 27-points since April, from 49% to 76% -- with nearly all of that increase on the positive side of the ledger. Indeed, the number who view Gabbard favorably increased by 24 points, from 35% to 59%, while the number viewing her unfavorably increased only 3 points, from 14% to 17%. Conversely, Mufi Hannemanns favorables have actually dropped by 9 points since April, from 61% to 52%, while his unfavorables have risen 6 points, from 31% to 37%. Conclusion Tulsi Gabbard has capitalized on a well-executed campaign strategy to vault into the lead over Mufi Hannemann. While Gabbard has become much better-known and better-liked among 2nd CD voters, Hannemanns image has stagnated, making her the clear front runner as Election Day approaches.
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