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Schreibman for Congress Campaign Jefrey Pollock, Jeffrey Plaut July Survey Results July 31, 2012

The race for Congress in the 19th District presents a real opportunity for Julian Schreibman to win this seat. Chris Gibson is not well defined in voters minds, and beyond his biography, doesnt have a lot to offer voters who are concerned about jobs, middle class tax cuts, health care and local issues. Findings Chris Gibson currently holds a modest ten point lead, 42% to 32%, over Julian Schreibman. o Schreibman is all but unknown in most of the district (his familiarity is only 19%), which is why he has more room for growth among a very persuadable electorate. Gibson is weak on several measures: o Gibson is only familiar to 46% of voters in the district, and in the new part of the district which makes up more than half of the district as a whole only 31% of voters are familiar with him. In other words, half the district is essentially an open seat, given the low level of familiarity with the incumbent. o Gibsons positive job rating is only 28% while his negative rating is 39%. o He has a re-elect score of only 27%. The survey shows that Gibson is vulnerable on numerous issue areas. In fact, following negative messages against Gibson, his support collapses to 33%, while Schreibmans vote share climbs to 47% following positive messages for him and negative messages against Gibson. o Although this is a simulation, it demonstrates pretty conclusively that a large part of the electorate can be moved with a strong campaign from Schreibman. Party registration is a toss-up, with Democrats at 32%, Republicans at 35% and Independents at 33%. There is a chance that there could be a tailwind from the top of the ticket here as President Obama leads Mitt Romney in the district by seven points, 46% to 39%. Global Strategy Group conducted a survey among 402 likely general election voters in the 19th Congressional District from July 18-22, 2012. The margin of error on the overall sample is +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error on sub-samples may be larger.

Global Strategy Group is one of the top Democratic polling and public affairs firms in the country, with offices in New York City, Washington, DC, Hartford and Los Angeles. GSG conducts polling for numerous Senate, Congressional and Gubernatorial campaigns across the country, including for Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, and nearly a dozen members of the New York Democratic congressional delegation.