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Interested Parties Dan Judy and Jon McHenry July 31, 2012 AZ 01 Congressional Race a Dead Heat

Our survey of likely voters in Arizonas new 1st Congressional District shows a dead-heat between Republican Jonathan Paton and Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick. The former Congresswoman holds a slim 46 to 43 percent lead over Paton on the ballot, with 12 percent of voters still undecided. Paton has a good chance to close this gap as he becomes better-known to voters despite a 39 to 30 percent Democrat to Republican advantage in party registration, which is reflected in the sample, 54 percent of 1 st district voters say that they are conservative. Moreover, Kirkpatricks ties to the national Democratic Party and President Obama are likely to be a drag on her candidacy. Indeed 59 percent of voters disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as president, while just 36 percent approve. Among independents, 58 percent disapprove of his job, while 37 percent approve. Additionally, Mitt Romney currently leads Obama on the presidential ballot by 58 to 35 percent, including 55 to 34 percent among independents. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted July 25-26, 2012, and has a margin of error of 4.90 percent.

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