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The Guardian | Tuesday 6 November 2012

The Guardian | Tuesday 6 November 2012

US election: the complete guide Follow the race

Election night 2012 on guardian.co.uk
Live blog Wins, losses, too-close-to-calls, hanging chads follow all the rollercoaster action of election night as the results come in with Richard Adamss unrivalled live blog, featuring dispatches from Guardian reporters and analysts across the US. Live picture blog Our picture editors show you the pick of the election images from both campaigns Real time results Watch our amazing interactive graphics of the presidential, senate, house and gubernatorial elections. See at a glance how each state has voted, and with a single click view a 3D rendering of each state, with the vote for each candidate broken down county by county. View Senate and House results either by party or by region, revealing the national trends. You choose the outcome Catch up with the latest polls in our balloons game pinch, pop and pull the balloons to show us how you think the election is going to turn out. US Election 2012: a graphic novel Follow the story of the road to the White House, told as a graphic novel, featuring innovative storytelling with a vertical-scrolling interface and compelling illustrations. Pictures and video Key images from election day and night across America

Big news, small screen Live election results and commentary m.guardian.co.uk

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The battleground states

Work out who is winning

Poll closes (GMT) State How they voted 1988-2008
Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | Obama Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Bush | Bush | McCain

Electoral college Votes Tally

Indiana

11 8 29 16 4 9 3 13 15 18 5

201
California 55 (+14)

154 solid Democrat

29 likely to vote Democrat

18 leaning towards the Democrat

Barack Obama and Democrats

Barack Obama & Democrats Mitt Romney & Republicans Undecided
1

270 electoral college votes needed to win

155
Undecided

11 leaning towards the Republicans

44 likely to vote Republican

127 solid Republican

Wisconsin

Michigan

New Hampshire

Mitt Romney and Republicans

182

Kentucky Florida Georgia N Hampshire S Carolina Vermont Virginia

Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Clinton | Bush | Bush | Obama Bush Sr | Clinton | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Bush | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | Obama

Number of electoral college votes per state

Washington

Montana

North Dakota

12
New York 29 electoral college votes (+26.4 RealClearPolitics.com, average margin)

Minnesota

50.4 46.2
Obama

Romney

49.2 45.4
Obama

Romney

Obama

49.7

Romney

47.7

Maine CD2*

*Maine and Nebraska are the *Maine and Nebraska only two states that allocate are the two only states their electoral college votes that allocates its by electoral collegedistrict. congressional votes by congressional Source: Real Clear Politics, district. Source: 05/11/12 updated at 15:00,real clear politics, updated at 15:00, 05/11/12

10
New Hampshire

1 4
Maine Pennsylvania

South Dakota Oregon Idaho

Wisconsin

Vermont New York

3 49.3 45.4
Obama

N Carolina Ohio W Virginia

Texas 38 (+16.7)

Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | Obama Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Bush | Bush | Obama Dukakis | Clinton | Clinton | Bush | Bush | McCain

3
Wyoming

10
Michigan Iowa

29
Massachusetts

Romney

3
Nebraska Nebraska CD2*

16
Pennsylvania Illinois Indiana Ohio

11 4

Ohio and Florida are pivotal. If Romney fails to win either, the race is effectively over

Alabama Connecticut Delaware Dist Columbia Illinois

Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Dukakis | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Bush Sr |Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr |Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Dukakis | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Dukakis | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Bush | Bush | McCain Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain

9 7 3 3 20 6 4 10 11 16 6 10 14 3 7 20 4 11 38 6 9 8 10 5 5 29 3 10 3

4
Nevada

Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey

Watch
BBC1, BBC News 24, BBC World News US Election Night 2012 11:35pm-6am David Dimbleby, Emily Maitlis, Katty Kay and Jeremy Vine ITV1 America Decides 2012 11:35pm-5:30am Alastair Stewart, Mark Austin, Julia Etchingham, Bill Neely and Robert Moore Sky News The Results From 10:30pm TV5 Europe Etats-Unis 2012 From 9pm French-language programming

Utah

20
Colorado Kansas Missouri

20
West Virginia

11

18

14
Virginia
Florida 29 (+1.4)

6
Alaska

10

Kentucky

Virginia

Maryland

10

Kansas Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Mississippi

California

8
Oklahoma Arizona New Mexico Arkansas Tennessee

13
North Carolina

Delaware

3 3 48.0
Obama

55

11

11
Pennsylvania 20 (+3.9)

5
Texas

6
Alabama Georgia

15
South Carolina

Washington DC

Romney

47.7

Listen
Illinois 20 (+16)

Ohio

Missouri New Jersey

BBC Radio 4 America Decides Midnight-6am, with James Naughtie, Bridget Kendall BBC Radio 5 live US Election Special 10pm-6am, with Richard Bacon, Stephen Nolan, Rhod Sharp and John Pienaar

Hawaii

Nevada

Ohio 18 (+2.9)

4
Colorado
Michigan 16 (+3.8)

38

16

North Carolina
Georgia 16 (+9.3)

N Dakota
Obama Romney
North Carolina 15 (+3.8)

49.4 46.5
Florida Mississippi Iowa

Oklahoma Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Texas Arkansas Colorado Louisiana Minnesota Nebraska New Mexico New York South Dakota Wisconsin

Online
edition.cnn.com/election/2012 CNN election tracker and breaking news fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com Poll analysis, including which polls to ignore and which are significant realclearpolitics.com/elections Analysis and polling facts politico.com/2012-election Latest results, analysis, candidates and polls electoral-vote.com Results and psephology aljazeera.com/indepth/spotlight/us2012/ In-depth coverage ustream.tv/election2012 Live streams from PBS, WSJ, etc

New Jersey 14 (+11.8)

50.2
Obama
Washington 12 (+13.6) Virginia 13 (+0.3) Massachusetts 11 (+20.1)

Romney

47.4

29
Florida

48.2
Obama
Maryland 10 (+20.7) Minnesota 10 (+5.2) Wisconsin 10 (+4.2)

Romney

47.6

46.2 49.2
Obama

Louisiana

Romney
Tennessee 11 (+25)

South Carolina
Arizona 11 (+7.5) Missouri 10 (+11.6) Indiana 11 (+9.5)

South Carolina 9 (+3)

Colorado 9 (+0.6)

48.8 45.8
Obama
Connecticut 7 (+10.8) Oregon 7 (+6.0)

Romney Obama

Louisiana 8 (+23)

Kentucky 8 (+14)

Oklahoma 7 (+26)

Romney
West Virginia 5 (+21) Mississippi 6 (+18) Arkansas 6 (+27)

Alabama 9

45

42

Obama

47.7

Romney

49.5

Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain

New Mexico 5 (+10.0)

Nevada 6 (+2.8)

Bush Sr | Clinton | Dole | Bush | Bush | Obama Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Bush | Bush | McCain Dukakis | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Bush | Obama Dukakis | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Dukakis | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain

New Hampshire 4 (+1.5)

Kansas 6 (+9)

Iowa 6 (+3.0)

Rhode Island 4 (+21)

North Dakota 3 (+0.9)

South Dakota 3 (+6)

Hawaii 4 (+27)

Washington, DC 3

Vermont 3 (+37)

Montana 3 (+9.0)

Maine 3 (+11.5)

On Twitter
@GuardianUS The Guardians US account will be live-tweeting results, news and commentary on election night. @forecasterenten Harry J Enten is the Guardians political polling expert. Hes also an avid weather forecaster a useful hobby during hurricane season. Follow Enten for a closer look at the polls on election night. @anamariecox Ana Marie Cox is an Election 2012 writer for the Guardian and is known by millions of followers as one of the snarkiest journalists in the Twittersphere. @garyyounge Gary Younge provides news and commentary for the Guardian from Chicago. Follow him for updates from Obamas political home town. @buzzfeedben Ben Smith is the editor-inchief of Buzzfeed. Follow Smith for rapid updates on election night. @feliciasonmez Felicia Sonmez is the Election 2012 blogger for the Washington Post. Sonmez previously covered Congress and blogged for the Posts The Fix. @mollyesque Molly Ball is a politics writer for the Atlantic. Follow her for a healthy mix of commentary, news and sarcasm. @sarah_boxer Sarah Boxer is a reporter and producer for CBS News who has closely covered Mitt Romneys campaign. @LarrySabato Larry Sabato is a political scientist at the University of Virginia and founder of Sabatos Crystal Ball newsletter often the source of pundits political news.

Alaska 3

Wyoming 3

Delaware 3

Nebraska 4 (+13)

Idaho 4 (+36)

Utah 6 (+45)

Analyst Harry J Enten on eight states you need to watch

Wyoming

Romney needs to pick up 79 college votes from swing states to win, so if hes still in the game Colorado and Wisconsin could give him a bit boost

Arizona Iowa Montana Nevada

Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Dukakis | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Bush | Obama Bush Sr | Clinton | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Bush | Bush | Obama Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain

11 6 3 6 6 55 4 4 7 12 3

Virginia
No state better represents the old v the new south. The northern part of the state, surrounding Washington DC, is filled with highly educated Democrat supporters, while most of the rest of the states white population is Republican. Obama also benefits from a large African-American population in the south-east. Virginia had not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964, until it sided with Obama in 2008. The polls show the state to be dead even. Expect this race to take hours for the networks to call as northern Virginia is usually the last to report.

Ohio
No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. This year is not likely to be an exception. Obama is buffered by a large African-American population around Cleveland as well as old, conservative Democrats along the states eastern border. Romney benefits from evangelical support in the more rural western and southern sections. Romneys strength with white workingclass voters has been diminished in Ohio because of Obamas support of the auto bailout and the president holds a small lead in the polls. Dont expect the state to be called by the networks for at least four hours after closing.

Florida
George Bush won the state by 537 votes and with it the White House in 2000. Much of the northern two-thirds of the state is filled with residents whose families have lived in Florida for generations. These folks are Romneys strength, along with Cubans in Miami. Obama will do very well with a growing non-Cuban Hispanic population around Orlando, black people, and Jewish retirees in the south-east. Look at the I-4 (Interstate 4) corridor in the central part of the state from Orlando to Tampa. Whoever wins the I-4 will likely win the state. Polls give Romney a slight edge, although it is too close to call.

New Hampshire
New Hampshire was the only state to vote for George Bush in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. It supported Obama in 2008, but did a U-turn and voted three Republicans to the federal government in the 2010 midterms. The state is nearly all white, yet has a unique mix of old-time libertarians, tax escapees from Massachusetts (theres no income or sales tax in New Hampshire), and social liberals on the states western edge. New Hampshire only has four electoral votes; however, they could play a big role in a number of electoral scenarios. The race here is too close to call, with perhaps a slight edge to Obama.

Colorado
Latinos, along with a growing highly educated white suburban population around Denver, have shifted this once Republican stronghold into a state where either party can win. Republicans still run strong in the exurbs (commuter towns) of Weld and the strongly religious El Paso county, home to the Christian conservative group Focus of the Family. Jefferson county, which is the basis for the comedy South Park, is likely to mirror the states vote. Polling in the state indicates that the race is a true toss-up.

Wisconsin
No state is more partisan than Wisconsin where a recall drive against the controversial Republican governor failed in June. Each candidate is locked in with 47% of the vote, no matter what. Obama can count on Milwaukee with its black population, socially liberal whites around the University of Wisconsin, and old-time Democrats in the west. Romney must crush in the Milwaukee suburbs, which are among the most conservative in the nation. The area around Green Bay in the north-east matches the word swing perfectly. If Romney doesnt win Ohio, he must win here. Polls give Obama a small lead.

Iowa
This is where the primary season begins and it likes to keep Americans guessing. Its a mix of old heartland liberals in the east and conservative evangelicals in the west. This was one of only two states that voted for Al Gore in 2000 and George Bush in 2004. No state has better mirrored the national vote since 1992 than Iowa. Early voting suggests a tight race, while polling gives Obama a small advantage. Obama won his first victory outside of Illinois here and would like to win where his national candidacy began. Iowa has historically not been decided until very late in the evening.

Nevada
There may be no better example of the gathering Latino influence than in the American south-west. Combined with Jewish retirees, black people, and white casino workers, Latinos form the Democratic base in and around Las Vegas. Democrats led by Senate majority leader Harry Reid have been registering voters at an incredible pace. Mitt Romney is relying on a base in the rural areas, including a large Mormon population. Washoe county in the north-west usually votes with the winner. Early voting suggests that Obama will carry the state and polling mostly predicts an Obama win by a small margin.

Utah

If the race is still open by the time Iowa and Nevada declare then the election has gone down to the wire

California Hawaii Idaho Oregon Washington Alaska

Bush Sr | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Dukakis | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain Dukakis | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Dukakis | Clinton | Clinton | Gore | Kerry | Obama Bush Sr | Bush Sr | Dole | Bush | Bush | McCain