NG DNG M HNH MIKE 11 GIS TNH TON CNH BO NGP LT H DU SNG HNG

PGS.TS Trn Thc, TS. Hong Minh Tuyn, Hunh Th Lan Hng, ng Quang Thnh, Trn Anh Phng Vin khoa hc Kh tng Thu vn v Mi trng

1. Gii thiu Sng Hng l con sng c tm quan trng bc nht ca tnh Tha Thin- Hu, chi phi trc tip n cc hot ng dn sinh kinh t trn mt vng rng ln trong c thnh ph Hu. Nhng nm qua vi s quan tm u t ca Trung ng v chnh quyn a phng nhiu bin php phng chng bo l c thc hin nn phn no hn ch mc thit hi do bo, l gy nn. Tuy nhin cng tc ch huy, ch o ca cc cp chnh quyn v s ch ng ca cng ng dn c trong vic phng chng bo, lt cn hn ch do nhiu nguyn nhn ch quan v khch quan. Mt trong nhng nguyn nhn l cng c phc v cho cng tc phng trnh cn cha y , thiu nhng cng c mang tnh trc quan v mc nh hng ca l lt cng vi nhn thc v mc nguy him ca ma l - lt ca cc cp, cc ngnh cng nh cng ng dn c cn hn ch. Nhm p ng mt phn nhng yu cu nu trn, vic tin hnh nghin cu ng dng b m hnh MIKE 11 v MIKE 11 GIS trong tnh ton v cnh bo din ngp lt cho sng Hng, tnh Tha Thin - Hu l mt vic ht sc cn thit, nhm nng cao cht lng ca cng tc phng chng l lt, hn ch n mc thp nht nhng thit hi do l lt gy ra.

Hnh 1. Bn v v tr cc trm kh tng thu vn trn lu vc sng Hng Ngun: Nghim Tin Lam, Bo co thu vn, Bo co s b nh gi nhanh dng chy mi trng sng Hng

Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT

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2. Phm vi nghin cu Sng Hng vi din tch 2830 km2 nm trn a bn tnh Tha Thin Hu mt tnh cc nam ca vng duyn hi Bc Trung B, pha Ty v pha Nam c bao bc bi dy Trng Sn v Bch M, pha ng gip bin ng vi ng b bin di 120 km. H thng sng Hng do ba con sng ln hp thnh l sng T Trch, sng Hu Trch v sng B trong sng T Trch c coi l thng ngun sng Hng. Bt ngun t vng ni Mang sn Ty ca dy Bch M, sng T Trch chy theo hng Ty Nam - ng Bc n ng ba Tun cch thnh ph Hu 10 km v pha thng lu tip nhn thm nhnh sng Hu Trch sau tip tc chy xui xung ng ba Snh cch thnh ph Hu 8 km v pha Bc, tip nhn thm nhnh sng B ri chuyn hng Nam Bc ra ph Tam Giang (Hnh 1).
Bng 1. Cc c trng lu vc phn thng lu h thng sng Hng Lu vc sng Din tch lu vc tnh n trm (km2) Tn sng chnh Tn trm

Lu vc sng T Trch Lu vc sng Hu Trch Lu vc sng B 3. Phng php

775 707 872

Sng T Trch Sng Hu Trch Sng B

Dng Ha Bnh in C Bi

Bo co s dng b m hnh MIKE 11 v MIKE 11 GIS ca Vin thu lc an Mch (DHI) xy dng bn ngp lt cho vng h lu sng Hng. Trong m hnh MIKE 11 thc hin cc tnh ton thu vn, thu lc nhm a ra cc gi tr mc nc, lu lng ti cc tt c mt ct ca h thng sng, sau nhng gi tr ny c a ln bn tng ng vi v tr trong khng gian ca mi mt ct t xc nh din v su ngp lt gy ra bi mi trn l bng m hnh MIKE 11 GIS. Trnh t cc bc xy dng bn ngp lt c trnh by nh s trn hnh 2 di y:

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Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT

Khi ng MIKE 11 GIS

DEM Module

Nhp d liu v a hnh. Nhp d liu mt ct ngang. Xc nh tham s ca cc li. To file a hnh TIN. To cc lp ng hoc vng xc nh cc cha, hoc ng giao thng iu chnh cao ph hp cho ca cc lp va to. To mng li sng sui. To v xut s liu mt ct. To v xut quan h din tch - cao ca cc khu cha

TD Module (M dun a hnh)

To file u vo cho m hnh MIKE 11 To mt Project mi. Nhn s liu t MIKE 11 GIS. B sung thng tin v cc cng trnh v s liu v dng chy. Tnh ton thu vn, thu lc.

Chy MIKE 11

No

C mt ct khng ? Yes FM Module

Nhp file kt qu ca MIKE 11. To file mc nc dng TIN. To li bn ngp lt.

No

Din ngp lt c ng khng ?

Gim kch thc li Yes

Yes

No

C mt ct khng ?

No

Bn c chi tit khng?

Yes

Bn ngp lt

Hnh 2. S cc bc xy dng bn ngp lt bng m hnh MIKE 11 v MIKE 11 GIS

Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT

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4. Tnh ton thu vn, thu lc h thng sng Hng bng m hnh MIKE-11 4.1. S tnh ton S tnh ton thu vn, thu lc cho h thng sng Hng bng m hnh MIKE 11 c trnh by nh trn hnh 3. Cc sng trong s tnh thy lc sng Hng bao gm: Sng B, Nham Biu, sng T Trch, Hu Trch, sng Hng v vng m ph Tam Giang. Cc bin trn c s dng l cc bin lu lng ly ti Dng Ho (sng T Trch), Bnh in (Hu Trch) v C Bi (sng B). Ba bin di c s dng l mc nc triu ly ti An Xun (Nham Biu), Tn M (sng Hng), Cng Quan (Li Nng). Lng gia nhp khu gia c tnh t ma thnh dng chy bng m hnh thu vn NAM sau phn phi u gi tr nhp lu ny cho tt c cc mt ct.
LV t trch
LV Hu Trch LV sng b

Ma Thng Nht

Ma Binh in

Ma T Lng

Dng Ho

Bnh in

C Bi

Sng B

Hnh 3. S tnh ton thu lc ca lu vc sng Hng

S. Hng S. Nham Biu

Ph Tam Giang

S. Hng

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Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT

4.2. Tnh ton ma dng chy bng m hnh NAM Phn ny l ng dng m hnh ma-dng chy NAM tnh ton chuyn ma thnh dng chy ti mt ct khng ch ca cc tiu lu vc trn h thng sng Hng. S liu lu lng ti cc v tr ny s l bin u vo thng lu ca m un thy lc v phn gia nhp khu gia. Cc trm ma s dng tnh ton dng chy c lit k trong Bng 2 v trng s ca cc trm ma c tnh theo phng php a gic Thiessen. S liu ma, lu lng dng chy c s dng hiu chnh v kim nghim m hnh l s liu ca cc trn ma l ca cc nm t 1978 n 1982 v t 1983 n 1985.
Bng 2. Cc trm ma c s dng tnh ton chuyn ma thnh dng chy bng m hnh NAM Lu vc sng Din tch (km2) Trm ma s dng

Lu vc sng T Trch Lu vc sng Hu Trch Lu vc sng B

775 707 872

Thng Nht, Nam ng Bnh in, T Lng A Li, T Lng, C Bi

4.3. Tnh ton thu lc phn h lu sng Hng Sau khi c lu lng ti 3 bin trn bng cch p dng m hnh ma - dng chy NAM, s dng m un thu lc trong MIKE 11 tnh ton thu lc cho phn h lu sng Hng thu c cc gi tr mc nc, lu lng ti tt c cc mt ct trn h thng sng. Cc trm thu vn s dng trong m hnh c lit k bng 3 trong hai trm thu vn c s dng hiu chnh v kim nh m hnh l trm Kim Long trn sng Hng v trm Ph c trn sng B, cc trm cn li c s dng lm cc bin trn v bin di ca m hnh. iu kin ban u c tnh t m un dng chy n nh (Steady Flow) ca m hnh MIKE 11 vi bin l cc gi tr mc nc, lu lng ti thi im bt u tnh ton.
Bng 3. S liu ca cc trm thy vn c dng trong m hnh TT Tn trm Sng S liu Mc ch

1 2 3 4 5 6

C Bi Bnh in Dng Ho Kim Long Ph c Thun An

B Hu Trch T Trch Hng B Ph Tam Giang

Q,H Q,H Q, H H H H

Bin trn Bin trn Bin trn Hiu chnh, kim nghim Hiu chnh, kim nghim Bin di

Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT

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Hnh 4. S tnh ton thu lc sng Hng trong m hnh MIKE 11 GIS

4.4. Xy dng bn ngp lt bng m hnh MIKE 11 GIS Sau khi hon thnh tnh ton thu vn thu lc bng m hnh MIKE 11, cc kt qu tnh ton cc mt ct trn h thng sng c xut sang m hnh MIKE 11 GIS xy dng bn ngp lt, cc thng tin ny bao gm: - Bn cao s TIN - H thng sng - Mt ct ngang sng - Mc nc tnh ton ti cc mt ct 5. Kt qu tnh ton 5.1. Kt qu hiu chnh kim nghim m hnh MIKE 11 S liu ma, lu lng cc nm 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982 c dng hiu chnh m hnh, v s liu nm 1983, 1984, 1985 c dng kim nghim m hnh. Sai s gia lu lng tnh ton v thc o trong bc hiu chnh v kim nghim m hnh c nh gi theo ch s Nash-Sutcliffe.

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Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT

Trong : Qobs, i: lu lng thc o ti thi im th i, Qsim, i: lu lng tnh ton ti thi im th i,
Q obs : lu lng thc o trung bnh cc thi on.

Kt qu hiu chnh v kim nghim m hnh bng ch s Nash ti mt s v tr trn lu vc, c trnh by bng 4, cho thy c s ph hp gia s liu tnh ton v thc o. Cc ch tiu nh gi mc hiu qu ca m hnh u t.
Bng 4. Kt qu hiu chnh v kim nghim m hnh ma - dng chy Lu vc Tn trm Ch s Nash Hiu chnh Kim nghim

Lu vc sng T Trch Lu vc sng Hu Trch Lu vc sng B

Dng Ho Bnh in C Bi

87% 90% 88%

80% 87% 87%

Lu lng tnh ton v thc o ti Bnh in

Lu lng tnh ton v thc o ti C Bi

Mc nc tnh ton v thc o ti Kim Long

Mc nc tnh ton v thc o ti Ph c

Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT

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5.2. Bn ngp lt T b thng s n nh c hiu chnh v kim nghim tin hnh xy dng bn ngp lt cho mt s trn l in hnh xy ra trn lu vc. Hai trn l c la chn l trn l 11/1983 v trn l 11/1999 do y l hai trn l lch s xy ra trn lu vc lm ngp lt trn din rng v di ngy cho phn h lu, gy nhiu thit hi nghim trng v ngi v ca cho khu vc ny. Di y l mt s kt qu tnh ton, xy dng bn ngp lt cho hai trn l trn.

Bn ngp lt h lu sng Hong trn l nm 1983

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Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT

Bn ngp lt h lu sng Hong trn l nm 1999

6. Kt lun Nh vy, vi vic p dng ng thi cc m hnh MIKE 11 v MIKE 11 GIS, bn ngp lt ca mt s trn l ln c xy dng tng i hon chnh cho lu vc sng Hng trong cc thng tin c cung cp bi cc m hnh bao gm din bin ngp lt theo thi gian, su ngp lt v thi gian ngp ca tng v tr trn lu vc. Ngoi ra trong m hnh MIKE 11 cn c mt m un rt quan trng l m un d bo l. Khi ng dng ng thi m un ny vi cc m un thu vn, thu lc s cho bit c mc nc v lu lng d bo ti cc mt ct ca h thng sng. T c th d bo c mc v din ngp ca lu vc. Cc thng tin ny thc s hu ch cho cng tc nh gi thit hi do l lt gy ra, d bo v cnh bo ngp lt, di di dn c ra khi vng b nh hng, phc v cng tc qui hoch ti nguyn nc ni ring v qui hoch pht trin kinh t x hi ni chung. B thng s m hnh, qua giai on hiu chnh v kim nghim, cho thy tng i ph hp v n nh cho php p dng trong cng tc d bo l v cnh bo ngp lt trn lu vc. Mt s hng pht trin tip ca nghin cu bao gm nh gi thit hi do l lt gy ra, xem xt nh hng ca bin i kh hu n l lt, ti nguyn nc xy dng h thng cnh bo l lt v khung h tr ra quyt nh trong hoch nh chnh sch pht trin kinh t x hi cng nh khi ng ph vi cc trng hp khn cp.

Tuyn tp bo co Hi tho khoa hc ln th 10 - Vin KH KTTV & MT

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