Resilience

Systems Engineering? Engineering Resilient Systems?

Why is Systems Engineering Cri4cal to Building Resilience?

Systems engineering is Discipline (applying proven prac4ces)
how to take a systems approach is cri4cal to mission success and safety Integrates parts into a whole > sum of parts

Where scale (size, complexity, stakeholders, risks)

Totally dis4nct from (but complementary to)

Tradi4onal engineering disciplines Project management Program management Planning

Is large Challenges intellectual manageability Complex Systems Almost Always Fail in Complex Ways

Systems Engineering Called For

No Yes
Complex in terms of
Size (parts, procedures) Dura4on Scope Risks Conic4ng stakeholders

Intellectually manageable by small unied group with a shared vision Does not cross jurisdic4ons Negligible threats to mission or safety Probabilis4c paQerns for stressors Minor unknowns

Signicant risks with serious consequences to both mission and stakeholders High consequence/low frequency for incidents suggests random, unpredictable behavior (Black Swan) Major show-stopping unknowns and uncertain4es

Resilience Systems Engineering

For works vulnerable to disrup4ons Allocates 100% of risk to

Components Stakeholders (residual)

Resilience cycle
Avoid, survive, recover
to avoid beQer understood risks

How to Engineer a Resilient System?

Specify requirements that reect de-conicted results of value for all cri4cal stakeholders Architected model that depicts
Components with allocated requirements and risks Full life cycle Clear boundaries Interfaces
Between components External en44es

Dened, con4nuously improving processes based on best prac4ces Path forward informed by product and project risks Verify and validate over life cycle for sustained and improved resilience
Including stressing discrup4ons (environmental, human)

RSE Disciplines & Prac4ces

Requirements Stakeholder expecta4ons at system level Architecture Total system or system of systems Interface management Systems, components, ins4tu4ons Risk management At system level, uncertain4es Management of changes Across interfaces Performance management Total system Decision making System level, win-win Leadership Enabling culture, high performance teaming Con4nuous Process Improvement

Calls for Resilience Systems Engineering

Sponsoring development of frameworks Katrina
Interna4onal Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) The Infrastructure Security Partnership (TISP) IPET major nding

Flood Protec4on System a system in name only

Macondo Well

Na4onal Academy of Engineering (NAE) and the Na4onal Research Council (NRC

Of par4cular concern is an apparent lack of a systems approach that would integrate the mul4plicity of factors poten4ally aec4ng the safety of the well, monitor the overall margins of safety, and assess the various decisions from perspec4ves of well integrity and safety.

The Results are Dierent

Current Approach
Con4nuing surprise from unimagined consequences Address selected risks Projects aligned with poli4cs and funding sources Poli4cs trumps safety Solu4ons planned as nite deliverables Clashes in vision not iden4ed or resolved

Systems Approach
Elicit all posi4ve and nega4ve outcomes without regard to predictability Address 100% of risk (holis4c) Solu4ons aligned with impacted stakeholders Safety held paramount Solu4ons architected and engineered with robust, life cycle capabili4es Improvement con4nuous and built-in Achieves shared vision through high performance teaming

Resilience Systems Engineering

Key Documents
IPET - Final IPET Volumes
Volume I. Execu4ve Summary and Overview (Main Text & Appendices) hQps://ipet.wes.army.mil/NOHPP/_Post-Katrina/(IPET)%20Interagency%20Performance %20Evalua4on%20TaskForce/Reports/IPET%20Final%20Report/Volume%20I/Volume%20I %20FINAL%2023Jun09%20mh.pdf

ASCE - So, You Live Behind a Levee! What You Should KNow to Protect Your Home and Loved Ones from Floods
hHp://www.asce.org/Product.aspx?id=2147485994

ArchitecVng Resilient Systems: Accident Avoidance and Survival and Recovery ... By ScoQ Jackson The Black Swan: Second EdiVon: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
hQp://www.amazon.com/Architec4ng-Resilient-Systems-Disrup4ons-Engineering/dp/ 0470405031/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1300541573&sr=1-2 hQp://www.amazon.com/Architec4ng-Resilient-Systems-Disrup4ons-Engineering/dp/ 0470405031/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1300541573&sr=1-2 hQp://www.oilspillcommission.gov/

NaVonal Commission on the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Oshore Drilling