Clint-Wheelock-Pike Research - SG Tutorial

Smart Grid An Overview and Introduction
GridWeek Asia January 2012

Clint Wheelock President
GridWeek Asia 2012
Agenda
Pike Research Overview Smart Grid Overview Smart Metering Market Update Distribution Automation Smart Grid Communications Home Energy Management Smart Energy and Transportation Markets Summary
GridWeek Asia 2012
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Copyright 2012 Pike Research
Introduction
Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The companys research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy ecosystem. Sector Focus:
Smart Energy Smart Grid Smart Transportation Smart Industry Smart Buildings
Research Services:
Research Reports Subscription Advisory Services Consulting & Custom Research Go-To-Market Strategy Custom Market Analysis Market Sizing & Forecasts Primary Research Technology Evaluation Commercial Due Diligence Competitive Benchmarking Strategic Advisory Sessions
GridWeek Asia 2012
Advisory Services
SMART ENERGY
Renewable Energy Distributed Generation Bioenergy Fuel Cells Energy Storage Advanced Batteries Utility Innovations
SMART GRID
Smart Meters Smart Energy Home Smart Grid Infrastructure Microgrids Smart Grid Security Smart Grid Communications Smart Grid IT
SMART TRANSPORTATION
Electric Vehicles Alternative Fuel Vehicles
SMART INDUSTRY
Energy Management Green IT Smart Cities Industrial Innovations
SMART BUILDINGS
Building Systems Green Buildings
GridWeek Asia 2012
Research Methodology
INFORMATION COLLECTION Primary Research
Supply Side
Executive Interviews Vendor Briefings Product Demos and Tours
Secondary Research
Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data
Demand Side
Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys
Case Studies Reference Customers
MARKET ANALYSIS Qualitative

Business Models & Trends Technology Issues Policy & Regulatory Factors Competitive Landscape Profiles of Key Players
Quantitative
Market Sizing Segmentation by Technology, Geography, Application, etc. Market Share Analysis Forecasts by Segment
GridWeek Asia 2012
Agenda
Pike Research Overview Smart Grid Overview Smart Metering Market Update Distribution Automation Smart Grid Communications Home Energy Management Smart Energy and Transportation Markets Summary
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Smart Grid Goals

Sustainable, Secure, Environmentally Safe Energy
Reduce utility operating costs Improve grid reliability Increase energy efficiency
Overall demand reduction Reduce end-to-end system losses Peak demand shifting (C&I, residential)
Soft consumer-driven demand response Verifiable, centrally controlled demand response
Less Grid Intelligence
Integrate renewable generation

Intermittent, bulk generation Distributed Renewable Generation (DRG)
Support electric transportation transition

Commercial and personal vehicles (PHEV)
More Grid Intelligence

7
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Smart Grid in Context

Smart Grid should be understood as part of a broader Smart Energy ecosystem
GridWeek Asia 2012
Smart Grid Vision

Unidirectional power distribution from centralized bulk generation Self-managing, demand responsive smart buildings Generation > 30% renewable sources Secure, self-healing, self-optimizing grid
Source: Oncor
Clean transportation, leveraging clean generation
Energy-efficient, self-managing homes driven by consumer choice

(Source: Pike Research)
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Grid Infrastructure
Existing Role: Reliable distribution from Suppliers to Consumers
Power Network
Suppliers
Transmission
Substation
Distribution
Metering
Consumers
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Smart Grid Adds Intelligence

Current goals: More efficient and flexible distribution from Suppliers to Consumers
IT/OT Infrastructure Communications / Automation Network Power Network
Suppliers
Transmission
Substation
Distribution
Metering
Consumers
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Role of SG Infrastructure
Challenge: Platform for new services, suppliers, consumers
Consumer Energy Services Demand Management Services Flexible Markets (Wholesale, Retail, Ancillary, etc.)
Suppliers
Transmission
Substation
Distribution
Metering
Consumers
Distributed Generation / VPP / Microgrids Energy Storage Electric Transportation

Copyright 2012 Pike Research 12
GridWeek Asia 2012

Agenda
Pike Research Overview Smart Grid Overview Smart Grid Infrastructure Market Update Distribution Automation Smart Grid Communications Home Energy Management Smart Energy and Transportation Markets Summary
GridWeek Asia 2012
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Smart Grid Infrastructure Segments

Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI)
Smart meters and associated hardware installations
Electric Vehicle (EV) Management Systems

Both in-home and distributed charging infrastructure
Distribution Automation (DA) systems

Communications, sensors, equipment for distribution optimization and management
Substation Automation (SA)

Intelligent substation components and communications
Transmission System Upgrades

High-voltage lines, FACTS equipment, and related communications gear
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Global Smart Grid Investments

Transmission upgrades represent highest overall spend worldwide Strongest innovation focus in the distribution portion of the grid Smart meters remain high-profile, but relatively small spend Asia, and specifically China, is largest regional driver
Smart Grid Revenue by Application, World Markets: 2011-2015
$60,000
AMI
$50,000
EV Management Systems Distribution Automation Substation Automation
$40,000
($ Millions)
Transmission Upgrades
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$-
2011
2012
2013
2014
GridWeek Asia 2012

2015
15
U.S. AMI Investment Peaking Now

U.S. smart meter / AMI shipments expected to peak this year (2012) Opportunities shifting toward smaller municipal and co-op utilities Advanced smart meters (with HAN) at least 80% of shipments RF-based systems (mesh or star) will continue to dominate Consumer push-back larger issue than most expected Smart Meter Shipments and Installed Base, United States: 2010-2020
14 100% 90% 12 80%
(Units Millions)
60% 50%
40% 30% 20%
2 10% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0%
(Penetration Rate)
10
70%
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Outside the U.S., AMI is Accelerating

European deployments accelerating in light of EU mandates China driving massive deployments of semi-smart meters Latin America, led by Brazil, increasing adoption Mostly Basic (non-HAN) meters; PLC favored in Europe & China
Smart Meter Installed Base (of all Meters) by Region, World Markets: 2010-2020
95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2010
(Penetration Rate)
North America Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East/Africa Total
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
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Increasing Focus on Distribution

Enterprise LAN
Enterprise

SA-LAN
SA Devices
SA-WAN
Investment in Distribution Automation / Optimization increasing significantly Different goals and technologies
Auto Fault Isolation and Recovery CVR and Volt/VAR control for DR Asset health & lifecycle monitoring
Substation
AMIWAN DA-WAN NAN

DA Devices
No consumer engagement! Communications architectures hotly debated

Integration with NAN or AMI-WAN Public vs. private networks RF Mesh, RF Star, Wired, Satellite Standards-based vs. proprietary
Field Area
Meter
HAN
Customer Premises
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Agenda
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Typical Grid Architecture
Distribution Network
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Distribution Devices
Fused Cutout Switch (www.sandc.com)
Transformers (www.specialtytransformers.com)
Automatic Recloser (www.langley-eng.co.uk)
Sectionalizer (www.joslynhivoltage.com)
Disconnect Switch (www.sandc.com)
Capacitor Bank (trinetics.maysteel.com)
Fault Sensor (www.selinc.com)
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SCADA
(Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition)
Substation and/or throughout distribution systems

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Distribution System Challenges

Reliability and Resiliency
Planning and maintenance Outage anticipation & awareness Outage recovery Outage isolation Automated reconfiguration
Efficiency Capacity Planning & Awareness Load sharing / shifting Distributed Generation
Conventional and Renewable Microgrids Residential
Support / integration of Demand Response PHEVs
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Advanced DA Application: Volt-VAR Control Systems
(Source: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
VAR Control - VAR (voltage-ampere reactive) is measure of reactive power, more of which is needed to maintain a given voltage on distribution line as the length of that line increases Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) Dynamically adjust voltage to within specifications based on actual load characteristics rather than statically set with conservative guard bands
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Distribution Automation Issues

Sensors
Types of sensors and equipment varies widely, as do typical applications
Communications
Technologies, bandwidth, etc. also varies widely RF Mesh, MAS radio, POTS, fiber, Cellular
Centralized vs. Autonomous control

Sectionalizers, reclosers, often work autonomously, only reporting status to control center Some operate without communications at all, with external sensors used to interpolate activity
Other related systems

Workforce management and safety Asset management
Distribution Management Systems (DMS)
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DMS Requirements
Management and forecasting of demand response, distributed generation, and storage resources Dispatch of active and reactive power (through aggregation of DER) for optimization of losses and voltage profile Optimal operation of voltage control and distribution automation Detection, isolation, and response to faults, vulnerabilities, and threats State estimation to facilitate accurate and near real-time reliability and security assessment Integration of network models, market models, and renewable resource models
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Agenda
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Communications Infrastructure
Silo Infrastructure
Enterprise LAN
Enterprise
Enterprise
Layered Infrastructure
Enterprise LAN SA-WAN
Metering
Distribution
Substation
SA-LAN
Substation
AMI-WAN DA-WAN NAN
SA-WAN
SA Devices
AMI-WAN
SA-LAN
NAN
Field Area
DA-WAN
DA Devices Meter
Meter
DA Devices
SA Devices
HAN
HAN
Customer Premises
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Networking Node Forecast

Strong communications node growth, driven by AMI deployments
Communications Node Forecast by Application, World Markets: 2009-2016
60,000
SA-WAN
50,000
DA-WAN AMI-WAN
40,000
AMI-NAN HAN
(Thousands)
30,000
20,000
10,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Communications Diversity
AMI-NAN Communications Technologies, World Markets: 2009-2016
Private / Public Wired / Wireless Standard / Proprietary Geographic Vendors Management
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Other WiMAX Proprietary Pt2MPt Microwave Pt2Pt Wi-Fi 802.15.4 Mesh Proprietary Mesh Other BPL N-PLC Copper Fiber Other 4G 2G/3G Broadband TDM POTS
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Smart Grid Communications Devices

Enterprise LAN WB SA-WAN WB
Wide Area Network
SR GR
SS
NI GR AMI-WAN AC GR NAN
RTU, IEDs
Substation LAN
NI GR DA-WAN NI GR RTU, IEDs
HN - HAN Node AN - AMI Node AC - AMI Concentrator NI - Network Interface Converter SR - Substation Router SS - Substation Ethernet Switch WB - WAN Backbone GR - Generalized Grid Router
Field Area Networks
AN HAN
Premises Network
HN
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Smart Grid Network Device Forecast

Revenue growth tempered by lower ASP mix
Communications Device Revenue Forecast by Device Type, World Market: 2009-2016
60,000
Generalized Grid Router WAN Backbone Substation Ethernet Switch Substation Router Network Interface Converter AMI Concentrator
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
50,000
40,000
(Thousands)
30,000
20,000
10,000
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Smart Grid Communications Trends

Rapid Evolution toward standards (IP)
IEEE 802.15.4g Smart Utility Network for 900MHz RF Mesh Private WiMAX for DA-WAN, AMI-WAN applications
Major push by public network carriers

Improved pricing, marketing, broader services Preparation for focused 4G services
Vendor push for end-to-end solutions

As AMI growth slows, push for growth in DA-WAN, other applications Partnerships (Ex: Tropos with Itron/Elster, Aclara with Firetide) Acquisitions (Cisco/Arch Rock, etc.)
RF Mesh still dominant, but under some pressure

Consumer health concerns; bandwidth/latency concerns for DA-WAN
New platforms for secure distributed applications

Open platforms in DA-WAN (Grid Net, Echelon, SmartSynch, Ambient)
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Agenda
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Wide Range of HEM Solutions

Utility energy applications
Information gathered by utility via smart meters and provided back to customers (often day-behind data) Web-based portal leveraging smart meter data Mobile applications (iPhone, Android, etc.)
Home energy awareness

In-home measurement and/or display devices Standalone systems or connected via smart meters
Home energy management

Active management of home energy devices, such as HVAC, hot water, pool/spa, appliances Standalone Home Automation systems Utility-based Home Area Network systems 3rd-party energy management services
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HEM Enabling Technologies

Better Technology Offers Greater Energy Savings
Consumer Energy Savings Social Networking Neighbor Tracking Neighbor Comparisons Consumption Trends Consumption Trends
Bill-to-Date Information Automatic Device Control Device-level Tracking Consumption Estimation Meter-based Consumption TOU Pricing Orb
Home Automation Control DR Response / Load Control Auto Pricing Response
Web Portal
Standalone HEM
In-Home Display
HAN / HEM
Paper Bills
Connectivity
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Home Area Networking

Home Area Networks (HAN) connect various in-home devices to smart grid ZigBee wireless technology is dominant HAN technology, with 802.11 Wi-Fi and HomePlug Power Line Carrier also emerging to play a role Underlying business models and regulatory requirements remain uncertain Many implementation options are possible; future unclear Utility Enterprise Systems
WAN
Smart Meter
NAN
Water Meter
HAN
PCT In-Home Display
Gas Meter HVAC System

Smart Appliances
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Utility Managed HAN

3rd-Party 3rd-Party Web Portal Internet Access Home
PC Smart Phone
Utility Web Portal Utility ICT Systems

Utility Management Key
Utility Consumer 3rd-Party
Advanced Smart Meter
PCT IHD
NAN
Utility HAN
Smart Plugs Load Control Smart Appliances Gas Meter
Device Authentication Security Utility-Device Communications (pricing, DR, etc.) Two-way command confirmation
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Utility Managed Gateway

3rd-Party 3rd-Party Web Portal Home 3rd-Party Services
PC
Internet Access
Smart Phone

Utility Management Key
Advanced Smart Meter
PCT IHD
NAN
Consumer HAN
Energy Management Gateway
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3rd-Party Managed Gateway

3rd-Party 3rd-Party Web Portal Home 3rd-Party Services
PC
Internet Access
Smart Phone

Utility
Interval Meter Reading
Basic Smart Meter
PCT IHD
NAN
Consumer HAN
Management Key
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HAN without Smart Meter

3rd-Party 3rd-Party Web Portal 3rd-Party Services
PC
Home
Internet Access
Smart Phone

Utility
PCT
AMR Meter
IHD
Consumer HAN
Basic Meter Reading
Management Key
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Smart Appliances
Smart Appliances offer energy management links to HAN or internet In the United States, ARRA stimulus initiatives driving some key pilots Some major vendors (LG, Whirlpool, GE) providing early units Standards for HAN connectivity moving toward ZigBee and HomePlug Market likely to be slowed by slow HAN adoption by utilities Smart Appliance Market Value, World Markets: 2010-2019
$30,000 $26,149 $25,000 $19,942 $20,000
($ Millions)
$15,000 $9,773 $6,266 $3,772 $2,150 $40 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $509 $984
$14,597
$10,000
$5,000
2017
2018
2019
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Who Are Providing HEMs?

Utilities
Directly or through retail rebate programs
Telecom/Cable operators
Example: Verizon and Time Warner offering home energy management as part of communications services
Other Service providers

Home alarm companies such as ADT
Independent consumer products companies

Current Cost, others in Europe
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Agenda
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Renewable Energy: Wind

Wind is the leading non-hydro renewable energy source; mature, mainstream Costs near grid-parity in some regions, though still policy / subsidy dependent China leads global market, Europe steady, North America falling precipitously Intermittency, time-of-day, and transmission issues remain significant concerns
Cumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity by Region, Baseline Scenario, World Markets: 2008-2017
600,000 500,000
400,000
(MW)
300,000
200,000
100,000
2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F
Middle East and Africa Onshore Latin America Onshore Asia Pacific Onshore North America Onshore
Latin America Offshore Asia Pacific Offshore North America Offshore Europe Offshore
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Distributed Renewable Energy

Solar PV is dominant distributed renewable energy resource PV market remains dependent on incentives, but nearing grid-parity Policy changes, module oversupply, and public debt worries impact market New business models represent a fast-growing PV segment
Solar leasing, utility-owned distributed assets, Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)
DRG integration a continuing, if elusive, goal for Smart Grid technologies Annual RDEG Capacity Additions, World Markets: 2009-2015
18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000
(MW)
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
North America
Europe
Asia
ROW
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Energy Storage Systems

Energy storage systems (ESS) oriented for long duration or ancillary services
Long duration applications: bulk storage, renewable generation time-shifting Ancillary Services applications: frequency regulation, power quality, load following
Integration of renewable generation is a key, but not only, driver for ESS Barriers include market structures, unaligned benefits, and multiple costs Technologies are rapidly evolving and commercializing, blurring applications ESS Segmentation by Technology: 2011
CAES 2,119
(MW)
Flow battery 147 Hydrogen 1 Li-ion 138 NaS battery 1,399
Lead/Carbon 4 Pumped Storage 5,250 NiCd 26
Superconducter 0
Flywheel 47
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Electric Vehicles
Electrified vehicle sales (HEV/PHEV/BEV) will nearly triple in volume through 2017 Hybrids will dominate throughout forecast period
U.S. market to remain the largest through 2017; China the fastest growing
PHEVs, with their longer range, expected to outpace BEV sales by 2.5 to 1
Cumulative North American PEVs to reach 1M vehicles by 2016, concentrated in CA, NY, FL, TX, IL
Medium & heavy duty HEV/PHEV/BEV trucks will surpass 100,000 units by 2015
Strong fuel economy improvements (25% to 40%), but high incremental costs ($45,000)
Electrified Vehicle Sales by Category, World Markets: 2011-2017

1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000
(Vehicles)
1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
HEV PHEV BEV
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EV Supply Equipment and IT

Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) market to reach ~2.0M units in 2017
By 2017, Public EVSE (Asia, Europe) majority of 6.7M installed units; residential will be 67% of U.S. unit sales
Profitable business models for operating public EVSEs remain undefined DC charging standards battle (CHAdeMO vs. SAE) is slowing market Risk of intensifying grid peak demand drives IT investment for PEV management EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017
2,500,000
Africa/Middle East Asia Pacific

2,000,000
Eastern Europe Western Europe Latin America North America
(Units)
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
2011E 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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Smart Grid: Applications and IT

Application integration required to unlock smart grid value and utility innovation Demand Response maturing, evolving, and dissolving into smart ecosystem
Becoming a feature within smart buildings management, grid management, AMI applications
Virtual Power Plant concepts leverage emerging smart grid infrastructure

Integrates and manages diverse resources: DRG, demand response, storage, EV infrastructure
Business process transformation is upending existing IT applications Total Virtual Power Plant Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2017
120,000
Base
100,000
Average Aggressive
80,000
(MW)
60,000 40,000 20,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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Agenda
Pike Research Overview Smart Grid Overview Smart Grid Infrastructure Market Update Distribution Automation Smart Grid Communications Home Energy Management Issues Smart Energy and Transportation Markets Summary
GridWeek Asia 2012
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So Why Smart Grid?

Energy Independence Renewables Security Carbon Reduction
Regulatory Goals Demand Response Safety Own Generation Reliability Customer Service PEVs Forecasting Efficiency Profitability Billing Lower Energy Costs Market Operation Opex Reduction Collections Energy Management
Suppliers
Transmission
Substation
Distribution
Metering
Consumers
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Ultimately All Data Driven

Operations Markets Forecasting Assets Real-time network operations info Asset info Embedded info (field devices, etc.) Financial / enterprise information Workforce information
Consumption Use Patterns Personal Info Financial Info
Suppliers
Transmission
Substation
Distribution
Metering
Consumers
53
GridWeek Asia 2012

Are We There Yet?

Self-managing, demand responsive smart buildings Generation > 30% renewable sources Secure, self-healing, self-optimizing grid
Still a long journey ahead But smart grid deployment penetration reaching show me stage Smart Energy Ecosystem opportunities are ripening
Smart Homes Smart Buildings Clean Transportation
Clean transportation, leveraging clean generation

Energy-efficient, self-managing homes driven by consumer choice
Renewable generation
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Discussion
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Contact Us
HEADQUARTERS 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO 80302 +1.303.997.7609
WORLDWIDE OFFICES United States: Europe: Asia Pacific: Boulder, Colorado Washington, DC London, United Kingdom Seoul, South Korea
General information: Sales inquiries: Media inquiries:
info@pikeresearch.com sales@pikeresearch.com press@pikeresearch.com
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Smart Grid An Overview and Introduction

GridWeek Asia January 2012

GridWeek Asia 2012

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

GridWeek Asia 2012

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

GridWeek Asia 2012

Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys

Case Studies Reference Customers

MARKET ANALYSIS Qualitative

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

GridWeek Asia 2012

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

Smart Grid Goals

Less Grid Intelligence

Integrate renewable generation

Support electric transportation transition

More Grid Intelligence

GridWeek Asia 2012

Smart Grid in Context

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

GridWeek Asia 2012

Smart Grid Vision

Clean transportation, leveraging clean generation

Energy-efficient, self-managing homes driven by consumer choice

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

GridWeek Asia 2012

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

GridWeek Asia 2012

Smart Grid Adds Intelligence

IT/OT Infrastructure Communications / Automation Network Power Network

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

GridWeek Asia 2012

IT/OT Infrastructure Communications / Automation Network Power Network

Distributed Generation / VPP / Microgrids Energy Storage Electric Transportation

GridWeek Asia 2012

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

Smart Grid Infrastructure Segments

Electric Vehicle (EV) Management Systems

Distribution Automation (DA) systems

Substation Automation (SA)

Transmission System Upgrades

GridWeek Asia 2012

Global Smart Grid Investments

EV Management Systems Distribution Automation Substation Automation

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

GridWeek Asia 2012

U.S. AMI Investment Peaking Now

40% 30% 20%

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

GridWeek Asia 2012

Outside the U.S., AMI is Accelerating

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

(Source: Pike Research)

GridWeek Asia 2012

Increasing Focus on Distribution

AMIWAN DA-WAN NAN

No consumer engagement! Communications architectures hotly debated

GridWeek Asia 2012

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

Typical Grid Architecture

Copyright 2012 Pike Research

GridWeek Asia 2012