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Horizon Scanningin Government
Concept, Country Experiences, and Modelsfor Switzerland
Beat Habegger
ETH Zurich
CSS
 
© 2009 Center or Security StudiesContact:Center or Security StudiesSeilergraben 45-49EH Zentrum / SEICH-8092 ZurichSwitzerlandel.: +41-44-632 40 25css@sipo.gess.ethz.chCommissioned by the Federal Ofce or Civil Protection (FOCP)Disclaimer: Te views expressed in this report do not necessarily representthe ofcial position o the Swiss Federal Ofce or Civil Protection, the SwissFederal Department o Deence, Civil Protection, and Sport or any othergovernmental body. Tey represent the views and interpretations o theauthor, unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved. No part o this publication may be reproduced, stored ina retrieval system, or transmitted in any orm or by any means, electronic,mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior per-mission o the Center or Security Studies.
 
Table of Contents
List of Abbreviations................................................................................................... 4Executive Summary ..................................................................................................... 51 Introduction...................................................................................................... 72 Te Concept of Horizon Scanning..................................................................... 8
2.1Horizonscansaspolicytools....................................................................82.2Horizonscanningaspartoacomprehensiveoresightprocess...............102.3Keyinsightsandmessages......................................................................12
3 Review of Country Experiences....................................................................... 13
3.1UnitedKingdomForesightProgramme.................................................133.1.1Evolutionandinstitutionalarrangements...............................................143.1.2Programandactivities............................................................................153.1.3Conclusions...........................................................................................173.2Singapore’sRiskAssessmentandHorizonScanning..............................173.2.1Evolutionandinstitutionalarrangements...............................................173.2.2Programsandactivities...........................................................................193.2.3Conclusions...........................................................................................203.3TeNetherlandsHorizonScanProject..................................................213.3.1Evolutionandinstitutionalarrangements...............................................213.3.2Programsandactivities...........................................................................213.3.3Conclusions............................................................................................223.4Keyinsightsandmessages......................................................................23
4 Horizon Scanning in Switzerland.................................................................... 25
4.1Model1:HorizonScanningSwitzerlandProject...................................264.2Model2:SwissHorizonScanningCenteroExcellence........................274.3Model3:HorizonScanningorSwissNationalSecurity .......................284.4Linkagestoongoingprojectsandkeyquestions.....................................28
5 Summary and Next Steps................................................................................ 316 References....................................................................................................... 33
6.1Bibliography ..........................................................................................336.2Ocialdocumentsandconerencereports............................................34
 
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