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Excerpt: "Out of the Mountains" by David Kilcullen

Excerpt: "Out of the Mountains" by David Kilcullen

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Reprinted from Out of the Mountains by David Kilcullen with permission from Oxford University Press USA, ©by David Kilcullen, 2013.
Reprinted from Out of the Mountains by David Kilcullen with permission from Oxford University Press USA, ©by David Kilcullen, 2013.

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Published by: OnPointRadio on Oct 01, 2013
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10/09/2013

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2
 
Future
C
i
t
ies
,
 
Future Th
rea
t
s
 
I
m
a
g
i
ne
 
a
g
ea
t
 
metropolis
cov
e
i
n
g
 
h
u
ndr 
e
ds
 
of square miles. O
nce
a
v
i
t
a
l
 
com
p
one
n
t
in
a
n
a
t
i
on
a
l
 
economy,
t
h
is
 
s
pra
wl
ing
 
urban
e
n
v
i
-
o
n
m
e
n
t
 
is now a
v
a
s
t
 
collection of 
bl
ig
h
t
e
d
 
bu
ild
i
n
g
s,
 
an
i
m
me
n
s
e
p
e
t
i
 
dish
of 
both
ancie
n
t
 
and new diseases, a
territory
where
t
h
e
rule of law
has long been
replaced by near anarchy
in
which
t
he
only
se
cu
i
t
y
 
a
v
a
i
lable
 
is
t
h
a
t
 
which is
a
tt
a
i
n
e
d
 
t
h
o
u
g
h
 
br 
u
t
e
 
power.
Y
e
t
his
 
city would
s
t
ill
 
be
g
l
oba
l
ly
 
connected.
It
would p
o
s
ses
s
 
a
t
 
lea
s
t
a modicum
of 
com
me
cia
l
 
l
i
n
k
a
g
es,
 
and some
of 
it
s
 
i
nh
a
bit
an
t
s
would have
access
to
t
he
 
w
o
l
d
s
 
mos
t
 
modern com
mu
n
ica
t
ion
and
com
pu
t
i
n
g
 
technologies.
It
w
o
u
l
d
,
in
effect, be a
fera
l
 
cit
y
.
 
Richard
Norton,
2
00
3
 
I.
Sixty
H
o
u
s
in
M
u
m
b
a
i
 
 As dusk
fell on
N
o
v
e
mb
e
21,
2008,
t
he
MV
al-
ussein
,
 
an
un
e
-
markable
coa
s
t
a
l
 
fr 
eig
h
t
e
a
l
i
tt
le
 
larger 
t
h
a
n
 
a
fi
sh
i
n
g
 
t
a
w
le
,
 
left
it
s
b
e
t
h
in
t
he
 
h
a
rbor 
 
of Karachi.
1
The
ussein
 
s
t
eame
d
 
into
t
he
 
g
a
t
h
e
i
n
g
darkness,
ble
nd
i
n
g
in
among a mass of 
s
m
a
ll
 
craft,
fi
sh
i
n
g
 
t
a
w
le
rs,
con-
t
a
i
n
e
vessels, and
pa
ss
e
n
g
e
ships. The ship sailed
out
into
t
he
Ar 
abian
Sea,
bound
for 
t
he
 
I
n
d
i
an
 
city
of 
Mumbai,
five
h
u
ndr 
e
d
 
n
a
u
t
ica
l
 
m
iles
to
t
he
 
sou
t
hea
st.
On
board, a raiding
pa
t
y
of 
t
he
 
P
a
k
i
stan
i
 
te
rr 
or 
ist
group La
sh
kar-
e
-
T
a
iba
(L
e
T
)
prepared for 
t
h
e
 
mos
t
 
a
u
daciou
s
 
m
a
i
t
i
me
terrorist
a
tt
ack
in
I
n
d
i
a
s
 
h
i
stor 
y
.
 
The
e
v
e
n
t
s
 
t
h
a
t
 
were
ab
ou
t
to
unfold are
worth
exam
i
n
i
n
g
in
det
a
i
l
,
si
nce
a
l
on
g
with
t
he
 
other examples
we
ll look
a
t
in
t
h
is
 
ch
a
p
te
 
t
h
e
y
 
help
to
illustrate
t
he
 
range
of 
t
h
ea
t
s
 
t
h
a
t
will
exist
in
t
he
 
u
ban,
net
wor 
k
e
d
,
 
littoral
e
n
v
i
o
n
m
e
n
t
 
of 
t
he
 
u
tu
e.
 
The
a
s
sa
u
l
t
 
team had received
t
h
i
te
e
n
 
mon
t
h
s
of 
t
a
i
n
i
n
g
 
from L
e
T
 
i
n
s
t
uctors,
 
as
w
e
ll
 
as
from
e
t
i
e
d
 
(and,
a
l
leg
e
dly
,
 
act
iv
e-
du
t
y)
 
me
mb
e
s
 
52
 
 
uture
 
c
it
ie
s,
 
uture
 
t
hrea
t
s
 
53
 
of 
P
a
k
i
s
t
an
i
 
S
p
e
cia
l
 
Fo
c
es
 
and
I
n
te
-
Se
v
ices
 
I
n
tel
l
i
g
e
nce
 
(I
S
I),
 
a
t
 
a
cam
p
near 
M
uzaff 
arabad
in
P
a
k
i
stan
i-
adm
in
iste
e
d
 
Ka
sh
m
i
.
 
One
t
a
i
ne
e
 
la
te
test
ifi
e
d
 
t
h
a
t
 
t
he
 
camp was
run by L
e
T
 
but
was near a
m
i
l
i
t
a
y
 
base,
w
a
s
guarded by P
a
k
i
stan
i
 
t
oo
ps,
 
and
e
ceiv
e
d
 
am
m
u
n
i
t
i
on
 
and
wea
pon
s
from
t
he
 
army.
2
The raiders
 
pr 
e
p
ara
t
i
on
 
included
ide
olo
g
ica
l
 
indoct
i
n
a
t
i
on,
w
ea
pon
s
 
and
t
act
ics
 
i
n
s
t
uction,
 
a
s
sa
u
l
t
 
t
a
i
n
i
n
g
,
 
and
am
ph
ibiou
s
 
ra
id
i
n
g
ex
e
cises
 
u
s
i
n
g
 
i
n
fl
a
t
able
 
bo
a
t
s
 
on
t
he
 
M
a
n
g
la
 
D
a
m
ese
v
oi
r in
Ka
sh
m
i
.
Seven
t
a
i
ne
es
 
were chosen
from an
initial
batch
of thirty-two,
e
c
u
i
te
d
from
urban
areas
in
P
a
k
i
stan
 
by L
e
T
 
and
it
s
 
p
o
l
i
t
i
ca
l
 
wing
 
,
J
a
m
aa
t
ud-Dawa.
 Aft
e
selection was
complete,
t
h
ee
 
ex
p
e
i
e
n
ce
d
L
e
T
 
op
e
a
t
iv
es
came
in to
t
a
k
e
 
charge
of 
t
he
 
group.
3
The team commander,
u
s
ing
 
t
h
e
nom de
guerre Abu
D
e
ra
 
I
s
m
a
il
 
Khan,
d
i
vide
d
 
t
he
 
te
n
-
m
a
n
 
team
into
fi
ve
pa
i
rs,
 
a
s
sig
n
i
n
g
 
each to
a
t
a
rget
in
t
he
 
w
a
te
rfr 
on
t
 
area of 
S
o
u
t
h
 
M
u
mba
i.
4
 
Th
o
ug
hou
t
 
2
00
8
a
ccor 
ding
to
evidence
g
i
v
e
n
 
during his
te
rr 
or 
is
mtrial
the
 A
m
e
ican
-b
or 
n,
 
I
S
I
-
t
ra
ine
d
 
P
a
k
i
stan
i
 
in
tel
l
i
g
e
nce
 
a
g
e
n
t
 
D
a
v
id
Cole
m
a
n
 
H
ead
ley
 
(Daood
Sayed
Gilani)
had made a
se
ies
of 
t
ips
to
scou
t
 
t
he
 
t
a
rget
 
lo
ca
t
i
on
s,
 
pa
ss
i
n
g
 
detailed
g
e
o
g
ra
ph
ica
l
 
i
n
orm
a
t
i
on
to
his
I
S
I
 
handler,
M
a
 jo
I
q
ba
l.
5
 
 At
t
he
 
same
t
i
me,
L
e
T
 
had
es
t
a
bl
ishe
d
 
a
network of up
to forty lo
ca
l
 
s
y
m
p
a
t
h
izers
in
and around
Mumbai.
6
 Alongwith
other 
spies,
H
ead
ley
 
(who
w
a
s
 
convicted on terrorism
charges
in
J
a
n
u
ary
 
2
0
1
3
,
fo
t
h
is
 
and other op
e
a
t
ion
s)
 
had generated a
det
a
i
le
d
pictu
e
 
of 
t
he
 
e
n
v
i
o
n
m
e
nt,
 
helping planners
in
P
a
k
i
s
t
an
 
u
nde
rs
t
a
nd
 
t
h
e
la
you
t
of 
s
t
e
et
s
 
and
bu
ild
i
n
g
s
 
and
t
he
 
flow
of 
people,
t
affi
c
,
 
and
com-
mod
i
t
ies
in
t
he
 
crowded
u
b
a
n
 
p
e
n
i
nsula
 
of 
S
o
u
t
h
 
M
umb
a
i,
 
a
c
o
m
p
lexand densely populated
area
in
which
coa
s
t
a
l
 
slu
m
s,
 
w
a
rr 
e
n
s
of 
n
a
rr 
o
w
a
l
ley
w
a
ys,
 
and
eside
n
t
ia
l
 
housing were
i
n
te
m
ix
e
d
with
office
bu
ild
i
n
g
s,
public
spaces, and
h
i
g
h
-
ise
 
luxury
hotels
.
7
 
On
board
t
he
 
ussein
 
t
he
 
raiders were
bu
s
y
 
exam
i
n
i
n
g
 
t
he
e
con-
naissance
da
t
a
,
 
p
o
i
n
g
 
over Google
E
a
t
h
 
i
m
a
g
es
to
s
t
udy
 
their 
t
a
rget
s,
co
n
fir 
m
i
n
g
o
u
t
es
 
of 
a
tt
ack
,
 
and
e
n
s
u
i
n
g
 
t
h
e
y
 
kn
e
w
 
how
to
n
a
v
i
g
a
te
 
t
he
complex urban te
rr 
a
i
n
in
which
t
h
e
y
 
would be
op
e
a
t
i
n
g
.
 
Each man
w
a
s
is
s
u
e
d
 
a
Ru
s
sian
 
 AK-47 or 
C
h
i
nese
 
T
y
p
e
 
56
a
s
sa
u
l
t
i
fl
e,
 
a
P
a
k
i
s
t
an
i-
m
ade
copy of 
a
Colt
a
u
tom
a
t
ic
 
pis
tol
,
 
two
clips of 9 mm pistol
am
m
u
n
i
t
i
on,
 
six
h
u
ndr 
e
d
 
rounds of 
i
fl
e
 
am
m
u
n
i
t
i
on,
 
and
eig
h
t
 
to
te
n
 
C
h
i
nese-
m
ade
 
T
y
p
e
 
86
h
a
nd
 
g
e
n
ades
.
8
 
Some
raiders were
g
i
v
e
n
 
pack
s
 
of m
i
l
i
t
a
y
-
g
rade
RDX
explosive,
G
a
m
i
n
 
GPS
sa
tel
l
i
te
 
n
a
v
i
g
a
t
i
on
 
de
v
i
ces,
 
and
cel
l
phones
.
 
Th
re
e
car 
i
e
d
 
ex
t
a
 
S
I
M
 
cards
of 
I
n
d
i
an
 
and
U
.S.
 
origin
for 
t
he
 
a
tt
ack
,
 
and
a
t
 

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