TO: FROM: RE: DATE:

Interested Parties Christina Coloroso, DCCC Director of Targeting and Analytics IA-03 Poll Results: Appel Leads Latham in Latest Poll October 12, 2013

Democratic candidate Staci Appel leads Republican incumbent Tom Latham by 3 points (42% to 39%), according to the DCCCs newest IVR survey of likely 2014 voters. The survey finds Appel in a very strong position so early in the election cycle. Among all likely voters, Appel leads by 3 points (42% to 39%), but among Independent voters this margin expands to an impressive 7 points (43% to 36%). Less than a quarter of the electorate (22%) plans to vote to reelect Latham in the 2014 election, while 78% of voters (and 91% of Independents) say they are open to considering another candidate. Latham stands to lose further ground as voters frustration grows. Two-thirds (66%) of voters disapprove of the government shutdown (78% of Independents, and by a 14-point margin (49% to 35%), voters think Congressional Republicans are more to blame than President Obama and Democrats in Congress. Among Independent voters, 55% blame Congressional Republicans while only 21% blame President Obama and Democrats in Congress. Voters are eager to hold Republican incumbents like Latham accountable. More than half of all voters (53%) say they are less likely to vote for him once they have heard that he stood with Congressional Republicans in supporting the government shutdown. The latest national survey by NBC/WSJ showed Democrats leading in a generic ballot for Congress by 8 points (47% to 39%).

In sum, Staci Appels early lead, combined with voters frustration with Republicans like Tom Latham, ensures Iowas 3rd district will be among Democrats top pickup opportunities of the 2014 election cycle.
The data in this memo is from a survey of 411 likely 2014 general election voters conducted October 5, 2013 in Iowas 3rd congressional district. Respondents information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 4.8%.