MEMORANDUM

To: Interested Parties

From: Wes Anderson, Kyle McGehrin
Date: April 16, 2024
Re: CO-08 Survey Findings

We recently fielded a survey of likely voters in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District and the results show
that the district’s political environment heavily favors the GOP, and that first term Democrat
incumbent Yadira Caraveo is among the most vulnerable incumbents in the nation.

This survey was conducted via live caller interviews with 70% of respondents being contacted via cell
phone. Interviews were conducted on April 1-4, 2024. This survey consists of 400 likely voters and was
stratified to reflect historical voter trends. The margin of error is +/- 4.90% and the partisan makeup is
35% Democrat, 31% Republican and 33% Independent.

Biden’s Unpopularity

Despite the Democrat lean of the district in terms of partisanship, Joe Biden is wildly unpopular and will
clearly be a drag on Caraveo as we head into the summer. When asked if they approve or disapprove of
the job he had done as President, a strong majority of 58% disapproved. These poor marks are largely
driven by the President’s unpopularity among Independents, 61% of whom disapproved.

Caraveo’s Vulnerability

Facing this much of a headwind, Yadira Caraveo would need a significant Democrat advantage in voter
enthusiasm to overcome her current deficit. Unfortunately for her, this is not the case. In fact, the
freshman incumbent remains largely unknown in her district. When asked if they have a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of her only 23% replied favorably while 16% responded negatively. This leaves the
majority of respondents (61%) who held no firm opinion of the incumbent. This, along with the shifting
political environment in the district places Caraveo in a dire position.

Congressional Ballot

Given the environmental shift toward the GOP and Caraveo’s weak name ID, it is no surprise that she
currently trails Evans on the ballot test by 5 points. More importantly, Caraveo only receives 38%. This
Republican advantage is in part driven by Independents who favored Evans over Caraveo by 6 points.
To put it simply, this result should raise every alarm possible for an incumbent seeking reelection.

Conclusion

Traditional wisdom says that any incumbent under 50% is vulnerable. This survey shows Yadira Caraveo
under 40%. Caraveo’s ballot position and low name ID combine to create an exceedingly narrow
pathway to reelection given the current environment. While it is true that Evans starts from scratch and
must run a competitive, well-funded campaign to take advantage of this opportunity, it is safe to say
that the GOP chances for a pickup in Colorado’s 8th are as good as they come.

OUR RECORD
Wes Anderson is a leading GOP pollster with 25 years of experience in opinion research. As a founding partner, Wes now
leads the polling divisions of OnMessage Inc. and OnMessage Sports, providing political and corporate clients with a full
spectrum of quantitative and qualitative opinion research products. For his stellar work in the 2018 election cycle Wes
Anderson was named as the 2019 American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) "Pollster of the Year.” You can
read more about Wes Anderson at onmessageinc.com.