POLLING MEMORANDUM FR: Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies Research RE: Survey of Likely Republican Primary Election

voters in Indiana
Wenzel Strategies conducted a telephone survey using live operators of likely Republican Primary Election voters statewide in Indiana. The survey was conducted April 24-25, 2012, and included 601 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.97 percentage points.

The latest Wenzel Strategies survey of likely Republican Primary Election voters shows that challenger Richard Mourdock has moved ahead of longtime incumbent Richard Lugar and now leads by a 44% to 39% margin. The results show the candidates have switched places since a similar Wenzel Strategies survey in mid-March found Lugar holding a six-point lead over Mourdock. Overall, 17% of the respondents said they were yet unsure for whom they would vote. Mourdock leads among TEA Party conservatives by a 63% to 24% margin over Lugar. The survey shows TEA Party conservatives are the largest philosophical voting bloc in Indiana, comprising 36% of the GOP electorate. Moderates, who comprise 17% of the Republican electorate, give Lugar the lead by a 61% to 27% margin. The race is close among traditional conservatives, with Lugar holding a 46% to 39% lead. Mourdocks favorability among Indianas Republican primary voters has improved by seven points since the earlier survey, moving from 31% to 38%. His unfavorability rating has also increased from 19% to 28%. Meanwhile, Lugars favorability has dropped nine points, from 53% six weeks ago to 44% today. Also, Lugars unfavorability rating has increased nine points, a substantial swing considering Lugars long tenure in public office. Interestingly, the percentage of those who said they were firm in their choice for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate has remained essentially unchanged over the last six weeks, as 51% in this new survey said they were firm in their choice, compared to 50% who said the same thing in last months poll. One in four respondents in this new survey said they were very open to changing their mind. Republican voters said they were mostly upbeat about the current overall state of affairs in Indiana, as 64% said they believed things were generally headed in the right direction. Another 21% said they felt things were off on the wrong track, while 15% said they were not sure.

6. If the election for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator from Indiana was today, and the candidates were Richard Mourdock and Richard Lugar, for whom would you vote?
Q6-BALLOT TEST Frequency
MOURDOCK LUGAR Valid NOT SURE Total 101 601 16.8 100.0 16.8 100.0 100.0 265 235

Percent
44.1 39.1

Valid Percent
44.1 39.1

Cumulative Percent
44.1 83.2