That election in figures

Dr Roger Mortimore, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI

Presentation to The Coventry Conversation, 12 May 2010
The result
 2010 UK general election: result

326
300
Other Conservative 306
250
12%
Lib
Dem 200 258
36%
23% 150

100

29% 50

0
57
Labour 28
Votes Seats
Source: BBC. One seat (Thirsk & Malton) still to vote
 2010 GB general election: result

Other 307
Conservative Other Conservative
10%
Lab-to-Con swing = 8%
5.5%
Lib Lib
Dem Dem 33%
37%
23%
24%

+1 +4
30% 36%

-6
Labour Labour
2010 2005
Source: BBC. One seat (Thirsk & Malton) still to vote
The pre-campaign
 Voting Intentions - Pre election
(all certain to vote)
Average
How would you vote if there were a General Con
Election Jan-
tomorrow?
lead in 2009 Mar
15% 6%
50

40

30 35%
30%
20
21%
10

0
Jul-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10
Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500
British adults thereafter, until February 2010 c800 thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
 The economy is the most important election issue
Looking ahead of the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do
you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote
for?
All at 3% or above
Managing the economy 32%
26%
Healthcare
23%
Education 14%
Asylum/immigration 12%
Taxation 11%
Unemployment 8%
Crime/ anti-soc. behaviour 7%
7%
Benefits
6%
Care for older & disabled people
5%
Pensions 5%
Afghanistan 3%
Protecting natural env./climate change 3%
Housing 3%
3%
Iraq
Public transport/roads
Defence
Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
 Which party has the best policies on … ?
Labour Conservatives Lib Dems Other/None/Don’t know
Conservative lead over
Labour
% who think issue is ‘very
important’ in helping them
decide how to vote 28%
17%
9%
+11
Asylum/immigration 14 46%

29%
28%
10%
33% +1
Education 23 24%
33%
9%
34%
-9
Healthcare 26 29%
26%
12%
36%

+3
Managing the economy 32

Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th to 22nd March 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
What the voters want on economy
Q. If a Labour/Conservative government is elected after the next General Election do you think it will or will not…?
Q. And do you think the next Government, regardless of which party it is, should or should not…?

…increase national insurance

% Will not/should not % Will/should
14 78
41 47
67 29
... cut spending on frontline 0
public services 36 56
21 70
70 27
0
… increase income tax 19 72
29 61
60 34
0
28 62
... increase VAT 29 61
74 22

Base: 1,253 British adults aged 18+, 18-20 April 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI
 Satisfaction with Party leaders
July-07 – April-10
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running
the country / doing his job as … ?
70 Clegg elected
(Jan 08)
60

50 Clegg
Cameron
40

30

20
dei f si t as %

10
Brown
Campbell
0
Jul-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month (1,253 April 2010) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
 Capable Prime Minister
Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister,
Gordon Brown or David Cameron or Nick Clegg?

September 2009 February 2010

Don’t know Don’t know David Cameron

5% David Cameron 8%
None 14% None
12%
38%
41%
16% 12%

Nick Clegg

24% 29%
Nick Clegg

Gordon Brown Gordon Brown

Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
But will Osborne or Cable do better?
Who do you think would make the most
capable Chancellor, Labour’s Alistair Darling,
the Conservatives’ George Osborne or the
Liberal Democrats’ Vince Cable?
Who do you think would make the most
capable Chancellor, Labour’s Alistair Darling
or the Conservatives’ George Osborne?

None/DK George George

Neither/DK
Osborne Osborne
21%
24%
36% 34%

23%
32%
Vince 30%
Cable Alistair Alistair
Darling Darling

Base: 735 from 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010 Base: 768 from 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running
the country / doing his job as … ?
Net change
Net from Mar
% Dissatisfied % Satisfied satisfaction 2010

Nick Clegg 15 68 +53 +33

42 45
David Cameron +3 +3

59 35
Gordon Brown -24 +2
66 30

The Government -36 +7

Base: 1,253 British adults 18+, 18th-19th April 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
 Growing doubts about Conservatives’ readiness to
govern
To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Conservatives
are ready to form the next Government?
60 58%
54%
50% 49%
50 45%
Agree
41%
40 41%
40%
36% 35%
30
29% 30%
20
Disagree
10
0

July 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Apr 09 Sep 09 Mar 10

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month; (March 2010: 1,503 adults) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservatives seen as less ready than Blair’s
Labour in 1997
To what extent do you agree or disagree that the
Conservatives/Labour are ready to form the next Government?
60 55% Agree Disagree
49%
50
41%
40
33%
30
20

10
0

April 1997 March 2010

Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010
Base: 1,114 British adults, 8 April 1997 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
What changed during the campaign?
 The course of the campaign
Average of all published voting intention polls in each period
Final
40 polls
38 38
35 36 37
33 34
3030 30 30 30
29 28 28
27 27 27 27
24
%

20 21
16
Election First Second Third Election
10 called debate debate debate day

0 Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of data

from pollingreport.com
The Political Triangle©
I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. Some people are attracted
mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the party and some because they identify with
the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these
was to you, how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how
many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?

Party Leaders
2.2
3.8

3.8
Policies Mean scores shown

Base: All giving a voting intention 1,210 collected from 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
 The Political Triangle©
I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to the … party. Some people are attracted
mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the party and some because they identify with
the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these
was to you, how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how
many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole?
5
4.7 4.6
4.4 Policies
4.1 4.2 4
4 3.8
3.9
3.5 3.4 Leaders
3.3 3.2
3 3.1

2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2

2 2.1 2 2.1

Parties
1
Mean scores shown
1988

1990

1991

1992

1994

1995

1996

1998

1999

2001

2002

2003

2005

2006

2007

2009
1987

1989

1993

1997

2000

2004

2008

2010
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: All giving a voting intention c.700 British adults each month (1,210 February 2010)
 Capable Prime Minister
Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister,
Gordon Brown or David Cameron or Nick Clegg?

February 2010 5 May 2010

Don’t know Don’t know David Cameron

8% David Cameron
19%
None 12% 33%
38%

12% 19%
Nick Clegg

29% 29%
Nick Clegg

Gordon Brown Gordon Brown

Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010 Base: 1,216 British adults 18+, 5th May 2010
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Source: Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard
 Satisfaction with Party leaders
July-07 – April-10
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running
the country / doing his job as … ?
70 Clegg elected
(Jan 08) 68%
60

50 Clegg
Cameron
40 45%

30
35%
20
dei f si t as %

10
Brown
Campbell
0
Jul-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month (1,253 April 2010) Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
 Importance of debates in deciding who to vote for
As you may know, for the first time in a general election campaign the leaders of the
three main parties will debate key issues live on television in the run-up to the
election. How important do you think the performance of the leaders in the debates
will be in helping you to decide who to vote for?

Not at all important Very important

39% 19%
29%

Not very important 20%

60%
31%

Fairly important
Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Benefit from debates
And which leader do you expect to gain most public support as a
result of these debates?

Don’t know

None 12%
3%

12%
Nick Clegg David Cameron
53%

20%

Gordon Brown

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd February 2010
 First debate: Seen it?
As you probably know, for the first time in a general election campaign the leaders
of the three main parties debated key issues live on television a few days ago. Did
you watch the debate, either live or reported on the news afterwards, or not?

25%
Yes – all of it on the night
70% saw
22% some
Yes – some of it on the night coverage
19% of the
Didn’t watch the debate but saw
news coverage of it afterwards on debate
television
5%
Didn’t watch the debate but saw
news coverage of it afterwards in
newspapers 30%

No – didn’t watch *%
it

Don’t know

Base: 1,253 British adults 18+, 18-20 April 2010

Source: Ipsos MORI
 Second debate: Seen it?
As you probably know, for the second of the televised leader debates took place yesterday in
which the leaders of the three main parties debated key issues live on television.
Did you watch the second debate, either live or reported on the news afterwards, or not?

Yes – all of it on the night 18%

59% have
17% seen
Yes – some of it on the night
some
Didn’t watch the debate but saw 22%
coverage
news coverage of it afterwards on
television 2% of the
Didn’t watch the debate but saw debate
news coverage of it afterwards in 37%
newspapers
No – didn’t watch it 4%
Watched the first debate but not the
*%
second

Don’t know

Base: 1,245 British adults 18+, 23rd April 2010

Source: Ipsos MORI/News of the World
 Impact of first debate on voting intention
Which of these statements do you most agree with?
Don’t know
None of these The debate has encouraged me
4%1% to vote for the party I already
support
25%

The debate has had no

46%
impact on how I intend
to vote 13%
The debate has encouraged
10% me to switch my vote from one
1% party to another
23%
The debate made me change from
The debate has put me being undecided to choosing one of the
off voting for any party parties to vote for
Base: All who watched the first debate, 899 British adults 18+, 18th-19th April 2010
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Impact of second debate on voting intention
Which of these statements do you most agree with?
Don’t know
None of these The debate has encouraged me
3%1% to vote for the party I already
support
32%

The debate has had45%

no
impact on how I intend
to vote
11%
1%6% The debate has encouraged
me to switch my vote from one
party to another
17%
The debate made me change from
The debate has put me
off voting for any party being undecided to choosing one of the
parties to vote for
Base: All who watched the second debate, 731 British adults 18+, 23rd April 2010
Source: Ipsos MORI/News of the World
Impact of the first debate
Voting intentions – average of all published polls

Before the first debate: After the first debate:

6-15 April 15-22 April
Other Other
11% 10%
Con
Con 33%
LD 38%
21% LD
30%

30% 27%

Lab Lab

Source: Published polls collected by Ipsos MORI

Impact of the first debate
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Before the campaign: After the first debate:

19-22 March 18-20 April
Other Other
14% 8%
Con
35% Con 32%
LD
21% LD 32%

30% 28%

Lab Lab

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Impact of the first debate
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
“Absolutely certain to vote”, projected into millions of votes
Millions

7.7
Con March
8.3
April
6.5
Lab March 7.2
April
4.6
LibDem
March 8.3
April 3.0
Others
1.9
March
April
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
 Definitely decided or might change mind?
Mid-campaign measures
Have you definitely decided to vote for xxx party or is there a
chance you may change your mind before you vote?

25-27 March 1992 21-25 April 2005 23 April 2010

Don’t Don’t
know know
May May
1% change 3% *%
change
May 18% mind mind
change
mind 35%
45%
54%
62%

81%

Definitely Definitely Definitely

decided decided decided

Base: All British adults 18+ naming one of the three main parties Source: Ipsos MORI
Average of polls: Swing Lab to Con

6 5.5% 5.3% 5.4%

5.1% 5.0%
4.8%
5 4.3%
4
3
2
1
0
Pre- To first To second To third Post third Final polls Result
Election debate debate debate debate

Source: Ipsos MORI

Hung Parliament
 Most expected a hung Parliament
Thinking ahead to the next general election, which of the following
outcomes do you think is most likely?

A Conservative majority government 24%

Con largest party : 61%
A hung parliament with the 37%
Conservatives as the biggest party
Hung parliament: 59%
22%
A hung parliament with Labour as
the biggest party 10%
Lab largest party: 32%
A Labour majority government
1%

A Lib Dem majority government 1%

A hung parliament with the Lib Dems as
the biggest party
Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

An overall majority – good or bad for Britain?
Thinking about the outcome of the election on May 6th, do you think it will be a good thing or a
bad thing for the country if no party achieves an overall majority?

April 1979 May 2010

Don’t know Don’t know
Good Good
15% 15%
20%
30%

Bad

55%
65%

Bad

Base: 1,064 British adults 18+, 16-17 Apr 1979 Base: 1,216 British adults 18+, 5 May 2010

Source: Ipsos MORI/News of the World

What next?
If no party achieves an overall majority, which of these would you prefer?

All LibDems
27
The Conservatives and the 22
Liberal Democrats working together 29
Labour and the Liberal 40
Democrats working together 4
0
The Conservatives and
Labour working together 33
35
All three main parties
4
working together
0

None of these/Other 4
2

Don’t know
The polls
 Exit poll

326
300
307 307
250

200 258 255

150

100

50

0
57 59

Election Ipsos MORI/Gfk NOP

result exit poll for BBC/ITV/Sky*
*Prediction as broadcast at 10 p.m. Result assumes Thirsk & Malton (still to vote) is Conservative
Exit Poll
 We polled 17,607 voters at 130 polling stations across Great
Britain
 Re-using as many polling stations as possible from 2005
 Spread of constituency types and regions
 Allowance made for postal voting
 Very high response rate
 Voting Intention (final poll) vs. results

FINAL RESULT – May 6th

Poll of polls – May 5th
Other Conservatives Other Conservatives
10% 10%
Lib Dem Lib Dem
36% 37%
27% 24%

28% 30%

Labour Labour
Conservative lead = +8 Conservative lead = +7
Sources: pollingreport.com; BBC; British Polling Council Source: Ipsos MORI
 Voting Intention (final poll) vs. results

Ipsos MORI RESULT – May 6th

FINAL POLL – May 5th
Other Conservatives Other Conservatives
8% 10%
Lib Dem Lib Dem
36% 37%
27% 24%

29% 30%

Labour Labour
Conservative lead = +7 Conservative lead = +7
Base: 930 British adults 18+, certain to vote or already voted by post, interviewed by telephone on 5th May 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI
 LibDem vote was softer (1)
Q. “How important is it to you personally who wins the next General Election?”

Very important Fairly important Not very important Not at all important No opinion

Conservative voters Labour voters Lib Dem voters

2% 2%1% 4%
2%
5% 1% 8% 7%

43%
33% 53%
59% 36%
45%

Base: British electors naming one of the three main parties, by telephone, 5th May 2010
Conservatives: 313; Labour: 289; Liberal Democrats: 244 Source: Ipsos MORI
 More Conservatives are ‘definitely decided’
Q. “Have you definitely decided to vote for the …or is there a chance you
may change your mind before you vote?”

Conservative voters Labour voters Lib Dem voters

Don’t know Don’t know

May 1%
May May 2% change
20%
change change mind
mind mind
32% 34%

66% 65%

80%

Definitely
Definitely Definitely decided
decided decided
Base: British electors naming one of the three main parties, excluding those who have voted by post,
interviewed by telephone, 5th May 2010 (Conservatives: 313; Labour: 289; Liberal Democrats: 244) Source: Ipsos MORI
Thank you. Questions?

roger.mortimore@ipsos.com