The Great Recession?

How Is
Alaska Doing?

Transportation Club of Tacoma

June 14, 2010
Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development,
Research Section, Neal Fried, Economist
 Is There A Correlation?

oty percent change

6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
-12.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

containers to AK AK employment AK population

Source: Port of Tacoma and Alaska Department of Labor, R&A.

I Guess It Might Be True--We Consume
More During Hard Times
2010’s
consumption
millions of gallons of alcohol sold in Alaska is also up

18.3 18.4
17.6 17.7 17.4
17.2
16.3 16.7 16.6
15.8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source:Alaska Department of Revenue
 Alaska's 21 Years Of Uninterrupted
Growth Is Now Over
number of jobs

300,000

250,000
21 years of growth
200,000 oil revenue
boom

150,000 the bust

100,000

50,000

0
1959 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2009
personal income fell for first time in 22 years
 Job Losses Vary From State to State
We’re Doing Pretty Well

percent jobs lost thus far in this recession

-0.5%

-4.6%

-6.1%
-6.7% -6.9%
-7.0% -7.0%

U.S. Alaska Wash. Oregon Idaho Hawaii California

-8.4 million -1,500 -136,300 -120,900 -46,400 -41,800 -1,043,000

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Tale of Three Economies--We Are Very Different-
Gross State/National Product
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
Alaska U.S. Washington Source:BEA
Remainder Oil Government Transport. Manufacturing
Alaska Is The Most Dissimilar? Is That Why You
Don’t Understand Us?

Dissimilarity Relative To Washington State

0.25

0.2
Alaska
0.15
Montana
0.1

Idaho
0.05
Oregon
0
Washington
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
Oregon Idaho Montana Alaska
Source: Washington Employment Security Department.
 This Does Not Hurt Alaska
State of Alaska unrestricted revenues ($billions)
$12

$10

$8

$6

$4

$2

$0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
 Alaska’s Economic Drivers
Air Cargo 2% Tourism 11%

Timber 2%
Mining 3%

Seafood 10%
Federal 36%

Oil 30%
Personal Assets 5%
Other 1% Source: UAA, ISER.
So, What Are Some Of The Economic
Forces In Play In The Near Term

Negative Neutral Positive

Oil Production Federal $$$$$$$ Military

cruise ships + + Air Cargo

=
Gulf Oil Spill Good fiscal position

Mining
A Second Year of Losses Forecast For 2010?

percent employment change from previous year

2.3% 2.2%
1.9% 2% 1.9%
1.6% 1.6%
1.4% 1.4%
1% 1%

-0.3% -0.4%

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10*
Where Jobs Are Forecast To Come From And
Disappear In 2010
Job gains and losses in Alaska in 2010
Total -1,400
Oil -400
Professional & Bus. Svcs. -300
Construction -300
Transportation -300
Retail -400
Leisure & Hospitality -800
Health Care 500
Government 900
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section
This Year There Are Lots of Forecasts Out
There
There
For For
Alaska-2010
Alaska
2009Employment
Employment Growth-Alaska

-0.2% 0.9%

-0.6% -0.6%

-0.4%

-1.9%
-700
-1.5%
-3,400 -6,200 -1,900
jobs jobs jobs jobs
Department
Department of Laborof Labor (best)Northern Economics
(best) Moody's Moody's Reaume
Wells Fargo

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor, Northern Economics, Wells Fargo, Moody’s.

Consistent Growth, but Slowest Since
Statehood
Annual Average Employment Growth

6.3%

5.2 4.9
4.5% 4.5 4.1
3.8
3.3%

1.9%
1.3%

1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-2009

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section.
 Hey, we are a pretty happy state

Ranking State

1 Louisiana
2 Hawaii
3 Florida
4 Tennessee
5 Arizona
6 Mississippi
7 Montana
8 South Carolina
9 Alabama
10 Maine
11 Alaska
30 Oregon
36 Washington

Source: Science Magazine

We Still Look Pretty Good On The
Income Front
Median Household
Ranking State
Income-2008
ANCHORAGE $75,637
1 Maryland $70,545
2 New Jersey $70,378
3 Connecticut $68,595
4 ALASKA $68,460
5 Hawaii $67,214
6 Massachusetts $65,401
7 New Hampshire $63,731
8 Virginia $61,233
9 California $61,021
10 Washington $58,078
U.S. $52,029

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

High Unemployment Has Become the Norm

unemployment rate
12.7%

Highest
10.0% since 1991
9.6%
9.2% 9.1%
8.0%

6.0%
5.0%
4.4% 4.4%
2.8% 2.8%

U.S. Alaska Washington Oregon Idaho Hawaii

Pre-Recession Recession High

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Alaska’s And The Nation’s Unemployment
Rates Move In Lockstep?
Annual Average Unemployment Rate 9.9%
10%
9.3%
9%

8.4%

8% 7.7%
 7.4%
7.1%  6.9%
  6.8%
6.5% 
6.2%
6%
 6.2%
 5.8%  5.8%
6% 5.5%
5.1%
4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

4%

 Alaska U.S.
2%

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor, U.S. Department of Labor, BLS.

The 10 best places to start
over
Tuesday, June 23, 2009 11:51:30 AM
No. 1: Anchorage, Alaska
Companies planning to hire in next

quarter: 28%
Best job prospects: Construction, durable
goods manufacturing, nondurable goods
manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade,
information, financial activities, professional
and business services, education and health
services, leisure and hospitality, other
services, government
Population: 279,243
Average home price in January:
$313,796
Unemployment rate: 8.1%
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: September 25, 2009: 6:21 AM ET

Americans tame their wanderlust

Census Bureau statistics show that fewer Americans are

uprooting. And when they do move, they're favoring D.C.,

Alaska and Texas.

So, where are they moving?

So, if people aren't heading for the good

life in California and Florida, where are

they going?
D.C., Alaska and Wyoming. (Seriously.)

The nation's capital saw 7.6% of its

residents arrive in 2008; Alaska attracted

6% more people to the Last Frontier (up a
full percent from 2007); and 5.2% more
people wanted to be Wyoming cowboys.
Helen Coster, 03.10.10, 05:53 PM EST

The Best And Worst Cities For Jobs This Spring

You may do best finding work in Alaska or Vermont this season.

Cities with colleges, military bases and a

wide range of industries have the strongest
outlook for hiring in the second quarter of
2010, according to a recent survey from
the employment services firm Manpower.
Anchorage, Alaska, and Burlington, Vt., tie
for the top spot, with a net of 22% of
surveyed employers there expecting to hire
between April and June. The Killeen-
Temple-Fort Hood areas of Texas, home to
the massive Fort Hood army base, comes
in a close second, with a net of 21% of
surveyed employers looking to hire
Areas Whose Population Grew
Faster Than Average
2000-2009
MatSu Borough 30%
Delta Area 15%
Washington 13%
Fairbanks 12%
ANCHORAGE 10%
Alaska 9%
U.S. 9%
 Alaska’s Construction $ Forecast

AGC forecast ($ billions)

$7.2 $7.4 $7.1 $7.0

$5.9
$4.8 $5.1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

private public
Source: UAA, ISER