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IEA Energy Technology Perspectives In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in
energy‐related CO2 emissions are in non‐OECD
2010 countries…………
60
Gt CO2
Baseline emissions 57 Gt CCS 19%
55 60
Gt CO2
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
50 55 Other Non‐OECD 19%
Renewables 17%
45 50 Other OME 14%
40 Nuclear 6% 45
India 12%
35 40
30 Power generation efficiency 35 China 27%
and fuel switching 5% 30
25 Other OECD 10%
End‐use fuel switching 15%
20 25
OECD Europe 7%
15 20
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt End‐use fuel and electricity
15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt United States 11%
10 efficiency 38%
10
5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis 5
0 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Solar Will Play a Key Role……… IEA PV Roadmap Approach
25% Other
45
Solar • From government, industry, utilities, finance, research
40
Wind
35 Biomass+CCS • Consistent with ETP 2010 model results to set a vision
Biomass and waste
30
Hydro
gy g p y p
for the technology’s long‐term deployment up to 2050
25
Nuclear
20 Natural gas+CCS
– ETP Blue Map and Variants – incl. High‐RE Scenario
15 Natural gas
Oil
• Set of existing PV roadmaps and strategies taken into
10
5
Coal+CCS account
Coal
0 • EU, US, Japan, Australia, China, India
2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map BLUE High BLUE High Ren
2050 Nuclear 2050 2050
• Support by PVPS Implementing Agreement
1
7/5/2010
The market is growing and diversifying…… Solar PV Targets
………and
costs are
reducing
d i
sharply….
PV Deployment and
Selected Key Actions 2010‐2020
Competitiveness levels
Market growth – 17% to 2020, then 11%. Learning rate: 18% • Design and apply effective incentive schemes
– Consistent with long‐term targets and policies
– Decreasing over time in order to foster innovation and technological
improvement
• Identify appropriate financing mechanisms and business models,
Retail electricity prices
including for off‐grid applications
• Implement efficient administrative procedures
• Increase R&D efforts to accelerate deployment and cost
reductions, while supporting longer‐term breakthroughs
• Develop building codes and standards for PV products
• Enhance education and training programmes
Deploying Renewables in Southeast
Deploying Renewables
Asia:
Trends and potentials
Trends and potentials
Tom Kerr Thank you!
adam.brown@iea.org
© OECD/IEA - 2010 Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2010 © OECD/IEA 2010