TEXAS COMPTROLLER of PuBLic Accounts aw os za => ‘October 1,2010 ‘The Honorable Rick Perry, Governor ‘The Honorable David Dewhurst, Lieutenant Governor ‘The Honorable Joseph R. Straus, IL, Speaker of the House ‘Members of the 81st Legislature Ladies and Gentlemen: In compliance with Texas Education Code, Chapter 42, Section 254, we are providing you with an cestimate of taxable property values as determined under Government Code, Chapter 403, Subchapter M. ‘The taxable values for tax years 2010, 2011 and 2012 are estimated to assist in budgeting forthe 2012-13 biennium. As a starting point, our estimates are based ona final 2009 taxable value of $1,699 wii, after excluding the $15,000 homestead and other state exemptions. The 2009 value represents a 1.16 percent increase over 2008, ‘To arive at a forecast of future statewide taxable property value changes, we examined recent and historical ends in Texas property values, along with forecasts of the national and state economies and real estate markets, and surveyed local apprisal districts regarding preliminary tax year 2010 results, ‘The Texas economy, while not as hard hit as most other states, has been severely impacted by the recession, with the payroll work force contracting by 4.1 percent — or 431,000 employees — peak to trough, and a sharp decline in consumer confidence and spending. The taxable property values for 2010 are expected to decline by 1.97 percent from 2009, with a further decline of 347 percent in 2011 due, in part, 10 continuing weakness in commercial real estate. Taxable values are expected to ris, but only slightly, by 0.69 percent in 2012. | shall continue to monitor the health ofthe Texas economy and, as required by law, I shall provide an ‘updated forecast ofthese taxable property values by March 1, 2011 om Combe Busan Combs ‘ce: The Honorable James C, Pits, Chairman, House Appropriations Committee ‘The Honorable Stephen E. Ogden, Chairman, Senate Finance Committee John 8. O'Brien, Director, Legislative Budget Board Robert Scott, Commissioner of Education 8