01 December 2010

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS INSIDE FIJI MILITARY AND FUTURE SCENARIOS

Introduction

1. This note outlines a number of potentially explosive developments in Fiji, especially within the
military, as revealed to us as Fiji pro-democracy advocates overseas. The information has
recently been received from sources within the military in Fiji.

2. These developments follow closely on recent events in Fiji prior to and since the return from
China of Fiji’s interim Prime Minister and Commander of the Fiji Military Forces (FMF), Frank
Bainimarama.

3. Bainimarama has not made an appearance at the military camp or seen any senior officers
since his return from China. Calls by senior military officers are not being picked up at his
home where is spending most of his time.

Removal of Senior Military Officers

4. Recently purged Land Forces Commander (LFC), Brigadier General Pita Driti, has been
removed from the army barracks and told to vacate his quarters as soon as possible. He in
fact moved out last week.

5. Brigadier General Ioane Naivalurua, currently both Prisons and Police Chief, has been handed
the letter to choose either post yesterday. He most likely will be moved back to Prisons by
next week. Bainimarama had in fact met with the former ACP Samuela Matakibau "CO Mobile
unit” in 2006, before going to China recently to discuss the position of Police Commissioner.

6. There is also a possibility that the two senior Police officers recently discharged from plotting
against former Police Chief Esala Teleni, are also being eyed for senior police positions.

Removal of Fiji President

7. We have been reliably informed that there is a move underway to remove the President of Fiji,
who is the only legal authority to appoint any interim government.

8. This move began with the removal of Colonel Ratu Tevita Uluilakeba as Commanding Officer
for the 3FIR and then Land Force Commander Pita Driti. As the LFC, Driti had the power to
approach the President directly to convey that the Commander of the FMF, Bainimarama, is
incapable to perform in his role. But before Driti could approach the President, he was ordered
to go on leave which was the official reason given for his standing down. The same reason
applied to Colonel Mara’s removal.

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9. It has also been revealed that in October 2010, Attorney General Aiyaz Khaiyum, while at the
Intercontinental Resort in Natadola, Sigatoka made the comment that “by December all Mara
connections will be removed from government”. The move to decommission both Driti and
Mara will see them lose their ranks but todate the President has not complied with the request
made by the Commander FMF.

10. Fiji Military Forces is going through rank change as all Tailevu (Bainimarama’s province) and
Naitasiri people are being promoted to key positions this week.

11. Frank with his ailing health, realises he is under threat as some officers are seeking his
removal as Commander. He has therefore activated a move suggested by the AG to remove
the President by the second week of December at the earliest.

12. The plan is for Bainimarama to become both President and Commander and to promote the
AG to be Prime Minister and to also hold the position of AG.

13. The removal of Teleni is also part of the plan as he posed a threat so he is to be sent away as
Fiji's Ambassador to China.

Keeping Things Under Control

14. The following are options being pursued to manage and tightly control developments:
 keeping a tight control on the media and only allow positive reporting to keep the public at
bay. In this regard, threat of action has been mentioned against a New Zealand media
outlet and a New Zealand journalist, Michael Field;
 eliminate all threats from senior military officers by replacing them as soon as possible;
 keeping the option open of engaging Australia and NZ on the pretext of elections in 2014,
while continuing to 2020.

Conclusion

15. The foregoing report and account is consistent with developments on the ground in Fiji.
Dissenting military officers have been removed as well as supporters and relatives of the Mara
family. Government expenditure has been tightly squeezed as revenue diminishes. Loans and
funding support from the Chinese have been providing much needed capital for rural
infrastructure developments in the attempt to appease and curry favour with the indigenous
Fijians.

16. The recent delivery of the 2011 Budget, resulted in an increase in the military budget of
$8million dollars, amounting to a total of $101million or more than 5% of total government
expenditure for 2011. This will now bring Fiji’s military spending to 2% of real GDP for next
year. For a country with a current growth rate of only 0.1 percent of GDP, it is difficult to
fathom the logic of an additional $8 million to the military other than for Bainimarama and the
military to entrench its rule.

Fiji Pro-democracy Advocate