AGRICULTURE IN A TIME OF CLIMATE CHANGE

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Video: View of the planet Earth from outer space zooming into the planet, showing various
landscapes and scenery

Climate change is a matter of fact for our world today.

Video: Pictures of pollutants, greenhouse gases then shift to natural disasters such as heavy
rains, floods and landslides

The unimpeded growth of greenhouse gas emissions today is raising the earth’s temperature.
The consequences include melting glaciers, more precipitation, more and more extreme
weather events, and shifting seasons.

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The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population and income
growth, threatens food security everywhere.

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Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures eventually reduce

yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation.

Video: Show heavy rains and floods in farmlands

Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-
run production declines. Although there will be gains in some crops in some regions of the
world, the overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are expected to be negative,
threatening global food security.

Video: Show hunger and poverty in developing countries

Populations in the developing world, which are already vulnerable and food insecure, are
likely to be the most seriously affected. In 2005, nearly half of the economically active
population in developing countries—2.5 billion people—relied on agriculture for its
livelihood. Today, 75 percent of the world’s poor live in rural areas.

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Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a
global scale. Global warming is projected to have significant impacts on conditions affecting
agriculture, including temperature, carbon dioxide, glacial run-off, precipitation and the
interaction of these elements.

Video: Show effects of climate change, farms not producing food, dying animals, famine
These conditions determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for
the human population and domesticated animals. The overall effect of climate change on
agriculture will depend on the balance of these effects.

Video: Show farmland pollutants, machinery, factories

At the same time, agriculture has been shown to produce significant effects on climate
change, primarily through the production and release of greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, but also by altering the Earth's land cover, which can
change its ability to absorb or reflect heat and light, thus contributing to radiative forcing.

Video: Show deforestation and desertification, factories and insecticides

Land use change such as deforestation and desertification, together with use of fossil fuels,
are the major anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide; agriculture itself is the major
contributor to increasing methane and nitrous oxide concentrations in earth's atmosphere.

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

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Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms,

and irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil
properties and natural communities.

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The effect of climate on agriculture is related to variabilities in local climates rather than in
global climate patterns. The Earth's average surface temperature has increased by 1 degree F
in just over the last century. Consequently, agronomists consider any assessment has to be
individually consider each local area.

Video: Show trading of agricultural trade, men carrying sacks of rice, trading farm produce

On the other hand, agricultural trade has grown in recent years, and now provides significant
amounts of food, on a national level to major importing countries, as well as comfortable
income to exporting ones. The international aspect of trade and security in terms of food
implies the need to also consider the effects of climate change on a global scale.

Video: Show poverty and famine, dry land in Africa and India

In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change produced its Third Assessment
Report which concluded that the poorest countries would be hardest hit, with reductions in
crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions due to decreased water availability, and
new or changed insect pest incidence.

However, climate change induced by increasing greenhouse gases is likely to affect crops
differently from region to region.

Video: Show African people planting maize

Africa’s geography makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, and seventy per cent
of the population rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. The net result is expected
to be that 33% less maize—the country's staple crop—will be grown.
Video: Show farmland first or landmark (the Christ of the Andes statue) then poverty and
famine in Latin America

In Africa and Latin America many rainfed crops are near their maximum temperature
tolerance, so that yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes; falls in
agricultural productivity of up to 30% over the 21st century are projected. Marine life and the
fishing industry will also be severely affected in some places.

In drier areas of Latin America, productivity of some important crops would decrease and
livestock productivity decline, with adverse consequences for food security.

Video: Show landmark (Philippines or India) then farmers and farm lands in Asia

Climate variability and change would severely compromise agricultural production and
access to food. In East and Southeast Asia, crop yields could increase up to 20%, while in
Central and South Asia, yields could decrease by up to 30%. Taken together, the risk of
hunger was projected to remain very high in several developing countries.

Video: Show farmers planting in rice paddies

More detailed analysis of rice yields by the International Rice Research Institute forecast 20%
reduction in yields over the region per degree centigrade of temperature rise. Rice becomes
sterile if exposed to temperatures above 35 degrees for more than one hour during flowering
and consequently produces no grain.

Video: Show farmlands in Australia and New Zealand, then landmark (Sydney Opera House)

By 2030, production from agriculture and forestry was projected to decline over much of
southern and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand;

Video: Show farmlands in Europe

In Southern Europe, climate change would reduce crop productivity. In Central and Eastern
Europe, forest productivity was expected to decline. In Northern Europe, the initial effect of
climate change was projected to increase crop yields.

Video: Flashes on the effect of climate change of agriculture – (1) farmers planting; (2)
irrigation systems; (3) landslide of mudslide; (4) desertification; (5) various varieties of
crops

In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways:
 productivity, in terms of quantity and quality of crops
 agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation) and agricultural
inputs such as herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers
 environmental effects, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil
drainage (leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity
 rural space, through the loss and gain of cultivated lands, land speculation, land
renunciation, and hydraulic amenities.
 adaptation, organisms may become more or less competitive, as well as humans may
develop urgency to develop more competitive organisms, such as flood resistant or
salt resistant varieties of rice.
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Most agronomists believe that agricultural production will be mostly affected by the severity
and pace of climate change, not so much by gradual trends in climate. If change is gradual,
there may be enough time for biota adjustment.

Video: Show researchers amidst African or Asian rural people

Rapid climate change, however, could harm agriculture in many countries, especially those
that are already suffering from rather poor soil and climate conditions, because there is less
time for optimum natural selection and adaption.

Conclusion

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Climate change, which is taking place at a time of increasing demand for food, feed, fiber and
fuel, has the potential to irreversibly damage the natural resource base on which agriculture
depends. The relationship between climate change and agriculture is a two-way street;
agriculture contributes to climate change in several major ways and climate change in general
adversely affects agriculture.

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Some negative impacts are already visible in many parts of the world; additional warming
will have increasingly negative impacts in all regions.

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Water scarcity and the timing of water availability will increasingly constrain production.
Climate change will require a new look at water storage to cope with the impacts of more and
extreme precipitation, higher intra- and inter-seasonal variations, and increased rates of
evapotranspiration in all types of ecosystems.

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Extreme climate events (floods and droughts) are increasing and expected to amplify in
frequency and severity and there are likely to be significant consequences in all regions for
food and forestry production and food insecurity. There is a serious potential for future
conflicts over habitable land and natural resources such as freshwater.

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Climate change is affecting the distribution of plants, invasive species, pests and disease
vectors and the geographic range and incidence of many human, animal and plant diseases is
likely to increase.

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The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions remains the best way to deter the effects of
climate change on agriculture. The earlier and stronger the cuts in emissions, the quicker
concentrations will approach stabilization. Emission reduction measures clearly are essential
because they can have an impact due to inertia in the climate system.

Video: Good farming practices, model farms

However, since further changes in the climate are inevitable adaptation is also imperative.
Actions directed at addressing climate change and promoting sustainable development share
some important goals such as equitable access to resources and appropriate technologies.

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Some “win-win” mitigation opportunities have already been identified. These include land
use approaches such as lower rates of agricultural expansion into natural habitats;
afforestation, increased efforts to avoid deforestation, reforestation, agroforestry,
agroecological systems, and restoration of underutilized or degraded lands and rangelands and
land use options such as carbon sequestration in agricultural soils, reduction and more
efficient use of nitrogenous inputs; effective manure management and use of feed that
increases livestock digestive efficiency.

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Policy options related to regulations and investment opportunities include financial incentives
to maintain and increase forest area through reduced deforestation and degradation and
improved management and the development and utilization of renewable energy sources.

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Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes, such as droughts,
floods and severe storms. The forces that shape our climate are also critical to farm
productivity.

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Human activity has already changed atmospheric characteristics such as temperature, rainfall,
levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ground level ozone. The scientific community expects
such trends to continue. While food production may benefit from a warmer climate, the
increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will pose challenges for farmers.

Video: Show various landscape and scenery, then view of planet Earth from outer space