Chapter 7 Probability

MVS250. V. Katch
Random Circumstances
Random circumstance is one in which
the outcome is unpredictable.
Example: Disease Status
You have the disease
You do not have the disease

Test for the disease is positive

Test for the disease is negative

MVS250. V. Katch 2
Assigning Probabilities
• A probability is a value between 0 and 1 and is
written either as a fraction or as a decimal fraction.
• A probability simply is a number between 0 and 1
that is assigned to a possible outcome of a random
circumstance.
• For the complete set of distinct possible outcomes
of a random circumstance, the total of the assigned
probabilities must equal 1.

MVS250. V. Katch 3
Assigning Probability
How likely it is that a particular
outcome will be the result of a
random circumstance
The Relative Frequency Interpretation of
Probability
In situations that we can imagine repeating
many times, we define the probability of a specific
outcome as the proportion of times it would occur
over the long run -- called the relative frequency
of that particular outcome.
MVS250. V. Katch 4
Example: Probability of Male versus
Female Births
Long-run relative frequency of males born in the United States
is about 0.512 (512 boys born per 1000 births)

Table provides results of simulation: the proportion is far from .512

over the first few weeks but in the long run settles down around .512.

MVS250. V. Katch 5
Determining the Relative Frequency
(Probability) of an Outcome
Method 1: Make an Assumption about the
Physical World (there is no bias)
A Simple Lottery
Choose a three-digit number between 000 and 999.
Player wins if his or her three-digit number is chosen. Suppose the
1000 possible 3-digit numbers (000, 001, 002, 999)
are equally likely.
In long run, a player should win about 1 out of
1000 times. Probability = 0.0001 of
winning.
This does not mean a player will win exactly once in
MVS250. V. Katch 6
every thousand plays.
Determining the Relative Frequency
(Probability) of an Outcome
Method 2: Observe the Relative Frequency of
random circumstances
The Probability of Lost Luggage
“1 in 176 passengers on U.S. airline carriers will temporarily lose
their luggage.”

This number is based on data collected

over the long run. So the probability that
a randomly selected passenger on a U.S.
carrier will temporarily lose luggage is
1/176 or about 0.006.
MVS250. V. Katch 7
 Proportions and Percentages as
Probabilities
Ways to express the relative frequency of lost luggage:
• The proportion of passengers who lose their
luggage is 1/176 or about 0.006 (6 out of
1000).
• About 0.6% of passengers lose their luggage.
• The probability that a randomly selected
passenger will lose his/her luggage is about 0.006.
• The probability that you will lose your luggage
Lastisstatement
about 0.006.
is not exactly correct – your probability
depends on other factors (how late you arrive at the
airport, etc.).
MVS250. V. Katch 8
Estimating Probabilities from Observed
Categorical Data
Assuming data are representative, the
probability of a particular outcome is
estimated to be the relative frequency
(proportion) with which that outcome
was observed.

Approximate margin of error

for the estimated probability is 1
n
MVS250. V. Katch 9
Nightlights and Myopia
Assuming these data are representative of a larger population,
what is the approximate probability that someone from that
population who sleeps with a nightlight in early childhood
will develop some degree of myopia?

Note: 72 + 7 = 79 of the 232 nightlight users developed some

degree of myopia. So we estimate the probability to be
79/232 = 0.34. This estimate is based on a sample of 232 people
with a margin of error of about 0.066 (1/√232 = ±0.666)
MVS250. V. Katch 10
The Personal Probability Interpretation

Personal probability of an event = the degree

to which a given individual believes the event
will happen.
Sometimes subjective probability used because the
degree of belief may be different for each individual.

Restrictions on personal probabilities:

• Must fall between 0 and 1 (or between 0 and 100%).
• Must be coherent.

MVS250. V. Katch 11
Probability Definitions and
Relationships
Sample space: collection of unique, nonoverlapping
possible outcomes of a random circumstance.
Simple event: one outcome in the sample space; a
possible outcome of a random circumstance.
Event: a collection of one or more simple events in
the sample space; often written as
A, B, C, and so on.

MVS250. V. Katch 12
Assigning Probabilities to Simple Events
P(A) = probability of the event A
Conditions for Valid Probabilities
2. Each probability is between 0 and 1.
3. The sum of the probabilities over all
possible simple events is 1.
Equally Likely Simple Events
If there are k simple events in the sample space
and they are all equally likely, then the probability
of the occurrence of each one is 1/k.
MVS250. V. Katch 13
Example: Probability of Simple Events
Random Circumstance:
A three-digit winning lottery number is selected.
Sample Space: {000,001,002,003, . . . ,997,998,999}.
There are 1000 simple events.
Probabilities for Simple Event: Probability any specific
three-digit number is a winner is 1/1000.
Assume all three-digit numbers are equally likely.

Event A = last digit is a 9 = {009,019, . . . ,999}.

Since one out of ten numbers in set, P(A) = 1/10.
Event B = three digits are all the same
= {000, 111, 222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 999}.
Since event B contains 10 events, P(B) = 10/1000 = 1/100.
MVS250. V. Katch 14
Complementary Events
One event is the complement of another event if the two
events do not contain any of the same simple events and
together they cover the entire sample space.
Notation: AC represents the complement of A.

Note: P(A) + P(AC) = 1

Example:A Simple Lottery (cont)
A = player buying single ticket wins
AC = player does not win
P(A) = 1/1000 so P(AC) = 999/1000
MVS250. V. Katch 15
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events are mutually exclusive, or equivalently
disjoint, if they do not contain any of the same
simple events (outcomes).

Example; A Simple Lottery

A = all three digits are the same.
B = the first and last digits are different

The events A and B are mutually exclusive

(disjoint), but they are not complementary.
MVS250. V. Katch 16
Independent and Dependent Events
• Two events are independent of each other
if knowing that one will occur (or has
occurred) does not change the probability
that the other occurs.
• Two events are dependent if knowing that
one will occur (or has occurred) changes
the probability that the other occurs.
The definitions can apply either …
to events within the same random circumstance or
to events from two separate random circumstances.

MVS250. V. Katch 17
Example Independent Events : Winning a
Free Lunch
•Customers put business card in restaurant glass
bowl.
•Drawing held once a week for free lunch.
•You and Vanessa put a card in two consecutive wks.
Event A = You win in week 1.
Event B = Vanessa wins in week 1.
Event C = Vanessa wins in week 2.
• Events A and B refer to the same random circumstance
and are not independent.
• Events A and C refer to to different random
circumstances and are independent.
MVS250. V. Katch 18
 Example: Dependent Events
Event A = Alicia is selected to answer Question 1.
Event B = Alicia is selected to answer Question 2.

Events A and B refer to different random circumstances,

but are A and B independent events?
• P(A) = 1/50.
• If event A occurs, her name is no longer in the bag; P(B) = 0.
• If event A does not occur, there are 49 names in the
bag (including Alicia’s name), so P(B) = 1/49.

Knowing whether A occurred changes P(B). Thus, the

events A and B are not independent.
MVS250. V. Katch 19
Conditional Probabilities
Conditional probability of the event B, given
that the event A occurs, is the long-run
relative frequency with which event B occurs
when circumstances are such that A also
occurs; written as P(B|A).
P(B) = unconditional probability event B
occurs.
P(B|A) = “probability of B given A”
= conditional probability event B occurs given
that we know A has occurred or will occur.

MVS250. V. Katch 20
 Basic Rules for Finding
Probabilities
Probability an Event Does Not Occur
Rule 1 (for “not the event”): P(AC) = 1 – P(A)

Example Probability a Stranger Does Not Share Birthdays

P(next stranger you meet shares your birthday) = 1/365 (low P).
P(next stranger you meet will not share your birthday) = 1 –
1/365 = 364/365 = 0.9973 (high P)

MVS250. V. Katch 21
 Probability That Either of Two
Events Happen
Rule 2 (addition rule for “either/or”):
Rule 2a (general):
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
Rule 2b (for mutually exclusive events):
If A and B are mutually exclusive events,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
MVS250. V. Katch 22
Example: Probability That Either of
Two Events Happen
Brett is off to college. There are 1000 male students.
Brett hopes his roommate will not like to party and not snore.
Snores?
Yes No Total
Likes to Yes 150 100 250
Party? No 200 550 750
350 650 1000
A = likes to party P(A) = 250/1000 = 0.25
B = snores P(B) = 350/1000 = 0.35
A +B = snores and party P(A and B) = 150/1000 = 0.15
Probability Brett will be assigned a roommate who either
likes to party or snores, or both is: P(A or B)
= P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B) = 0.25 + 0.35 – 0.15 = 0.45
So the probability his roommate is acceptable is 1 – 0.45 = 0.55
MVS250. V. Katch 23
Probability That Two or
More Events Occur Together
Rule 3 (multiplication rule for “and”):
Rule 3a (general):
P of A given B
P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A)
Rule 3b (for independent events):
If A and B are independent events,
P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
Extension of Rule 3b (for > 2 indep events):
For several independent events,
P(A1 and A2 and … and An) = P(A1)P(A2)…P(An)
MVS250. V. Katch 24
 Example: Probability That Two or

More
For 9th graders, 22.9%Events
of the boys Occur
and 4.5% ofTogether
the girls admitted they
gambled at least once a week during the previous year. The population
consisted of 50.9% girls and 49.1% boys. What is P that a randomly
selected student will be a male who also gambles? (event A = male
selected; even B = a weekly gambler is selected; events A and B are
dependent [Rule 3a (general multiplication - P(A)PB|A)]
Event A = male Event B = weekly gambler
P(A) = 0.491 P(B|A) = 0.229

P(male and gambler) = P(A and B)

= P(A)P(B|A) = (0.491)(0.229) = 0.1124
About 11% of all 9th graders are males and weekly gamblers.
MVS250. V. Katch 25
Determining a Conditional Probability

Rule 4 (conditional probability):

P(B|A) = P(A and B)/P(A)
And it is also true that:
P(A|B) = P(A and B)/P(B)
MVS250. V. Katch 26
Example: Determining a Conditional
Probability
If we know Alicia is picked to answer one of theree
questions, what is the probability it was the first question?
A = Alicia selected to answer Question 1, P(A) = 1/50
B = Alicia is selected to answer
any one of the questions, P(B) = 3/50
Since A is a subset of B, P(A and B) = 1/50

P(A|B) = P(A and B)/P(B) = (1/50)/(3/50) = 1/3

MVS250. V. Katch 27
In Summary …

Students sometimes confuse the definitions of

independent and mutually exclusive events.

• When two events are mutually exclusive and one

happens, it turns the probability of the other one to 0.
• When two events are independent and one happens,
it leaves the probability of the other one alone.

MVS250. V. Katch 28
 In Summary …

When Events Are: P(A or B) is: P(A and B) is: P(A|B) is:
Mutually P(A)+P(B) 0 0
Exclusive
Independent P(A)+P(B)-P(A)P(B) P(A)P(B) P(A)

Any P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B) P(A)P(B|A) P(A and B)/P(B)

MVS250. V. Katch 29
Hints and Advice
for Finding Probabilities
• P(A and B): define event in physical terms and see if
know probability. Else try multiplication rule (Rule 3).
• Series of independent events all happen: multiply
all individual probabilities (Extension of Rule 3b)
• One of a collection of mutually exclusive events
happens: add all individual probabilities (Rule 2b
extended).
• Check if probability of complement easier,
then subtract it from 1 (applying Rule 1).
MVS250. V. Katch 30
Hints and Advice for Finding Probabilities
• None of a collection of mutually exclusive events
happens: find probability one happens, then subtract
that from 1.
• Conditional probability: define event in physical
terms and see if know probability. Else try Rule 4 or
next bullet as well.
• Know P(B|A) but want P(A|B): Use Rule 3a to find
P(B) = P(A and B) + P(AC and B), then use Rule 4.
P( A and B)
P( A | B) =
P( B | A) P( A) + P ( B | AC ) P ( AC )

MVS250. V. Katch 31
Steps for Finding Probabilities
Step 1: List each separate random circumstance
involved in the problem.
Step 2: List the possible outcomes for each
random circumstance.
Step 3: Assign whatever probabilities you can
with the knowledge you have.
Step 4: Specify the event for which you want to
determine the probability.
Step 5: Determine which of the probabilities from
step 3 and which probability rules can be
combined to find the probability of interest.
MVS250. V. Katch 32