Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Chapter 5
2
Definitions
4
Definitions continued
5
Experiments, Events and Outcomes
6
Assigning Probabilities
7
Classical Probability
8
Mutually Exclusive Events
9
Collectively Exhaustive Events
10
Empirical Probability
11
Law of Large Numbers
12
Empirical Probability - Example
13
Subjective Probability - Example
14
Summary of Types of Probability
15
Rules for Computing Probabilities
Rules of Addition
Special Rule of Addition - If two events
A and B are mutually exclusive, the
probability of one or the other event’s
occurring equals the sum of their
probabilities.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
16
Example
A machine fills plastic bags with a mixture of beans, broccoli, and other vegetables. Most of the
bags contain the correct weight, but because of the variation in the size of the beans and other
vegetables, a package might be under weight or overweight. A check of 4,000 packages filled in
the past month revealed:
17
Example (cont’d)
What is the probability that a particular package will be either underweight or overweight?
Solution The outcome “underweight” is the event A. The outcome “overweight” is
the event C. Applying the special rule of addition:
P(A or C)= P(A)+ P(C)= .025 + .075 = .10
Note that the events are mutually exclusive, meaning that a package of mixed vegetables
cannot be underweight, satisfactory, and overweight at the same time. They are also
collectively exhaustive; that is, a selected package must be either underweight,
satisfactory, or overweight.
18
Addition Rule - Example
20
Joint Probability – Venn Diagram
21
Special Rule of Multiplication
22
Multiplication Rule-Example
Solution:
The probability the first member made an airline reservation last year
is .60, written as P(R1) = .60
The probability that the second member selected made a reservation is
also .60, so P(R2) = .60.
Since the number of AAA members is very large, you may assume that
R1 and R2 are independent.
23
Conditional Probability
24
General Multiplication Rule
25
General Multiplication Rule - Example
26
General Multiplication Rule - Example
27
Contingency Tables
28
Contingency Tables - Example
A sample of executives were surveyed about their loyalty to their company.
One of the questions was, “If you were given an offer by another
company equal to or slightly better than your present position, would
you remain with the company or take the other position?” The
responses of the 200 executives in the survey were cross-classified
with their length of service with the company.
29
Contingency Tables - Example
30
Tree Diagrams
33
Bayes Theorem - Example
34
Bayes Theorem – Example (cont.)
35
Bayes Theorem – Example (cont.)
36
Bayes Theorem – Example (cont.)
37
38
Bayes Theorem – Example (cont.)
39
Counting Rules – Multiplication
An automobile dealer
wants to advertise that
for $29,999 you can buy
a convertible, a two-door
sedan, or a four-door
model with your choice
of either wire wheel
covers or solid wheel
covers. How many
different arrangements of
models and wheel
covers can the dealer
offer?
41
Counting Rules – Multiplication: Example
42
Counting Rules - Permutation
43
Counting - Combination
44
Combination - Example
12!
12 C5 792
5!(12 5)!
45
Permutation - Example
12!
12 P 5 95,040
(12 5)!
46
End of Chapter 5
47