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Probability Theory Lecture Notes

Research · November 2015

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1201.8005

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 PROBABILITY THEORY - I

PROBABILITY THEORY - I
Lecture Notes (Basics) - M.Sc., Statistics
Lesson - I
What is
probability?

▪ The probability of an event refers to the likelihood that the event will occur.
▪ Expressed as a number between 0 and 1.
▪ Probability of event A is represented by P(A).
How to interpret Probability?
Probability Interpretation
P(A) = 0.0 Event will almost definitely not occur.
P(A) = 0.25 25 % chance that event A occurs.
P(A) = 0.5 50-50 chance that event A occurs.
P(A) = 0.75 75 % chance that event A occurs.
P(A) = 1.0 Event A will almost definitely occur.

Statistical experiment:
Statistical experiment have 3 common features
1. Experiment has more than one possible outcome
2. Each outcome can be specified in advance
3. Outcome of the experiment depends on chance
Sum of probabilities for all outcome is one.
Example:
If, an experiment can have three possible outcomes (A, B, and C),
Then,
P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1.
Example: 1
Tossing a coin,
1. More than one possible outcome
2. Each outcome in advance
3. The outcome depends on chance

Problem:
A coin is tossed three times. What is the probability that it lands on heads exactly one time?
(A) 0.125
(B) 0.250
1 (C) 0.333
(D) 0.375
(E) 0.500
Answer - D

K. MANOJ.,D.C.A.,M.Sc.,M.Phil., | Department of Statistics, MSU. | E-mail: manojstatms@gmail.com

Website: www.statweb.blogspot.com (Statistics Notes Available)
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