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Introduction to Probability
CHAPTER 3
  Basic concepts of probability 2

 Terms: Probability experiment, outcome, sample

space, event
 Types of probability: Classical, empirical, &
subjective
 Range of probabilities rules
Overview of the  Complementary events
chapter  Probability application: Tree diagram, Venn
diagram, contingency table
 Conditional probability & the multiplication rule
 Independent & dependent events
 Addition rule
 Mutually exclusive event
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Basic concepts of probability

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 To identify the sample space of a probability experiment

 To identify simple events
 To distinguish among classical probability, empirical
Objectives of probability, and subjective probability
this section
 To find the probability of the complement of an event
 To use a tree diagram to find more probabilities
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 Probability is the foundation of inferential statistics 

necessary to learn!
 Probability can be defined as the chance (measure of
likelihood) of an event occurring.
 It can be used to quantify what the “odds” are that a
Introduction specific event will occur
 Example:
 It is four times more likely to rain tomorrow than
not rain  probability
 The odds are 4 to 1 in favor of rain tomorrow (4:1)
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 Probability experiment – an action, or trial, through which specific

results (counts, measurements, or responses) are obtained.
 Outcome – the result of a single trial in a probability experiment
 Sample space – the set of all possible outcomes of a probability

Introduction- experiment
 Event – a subset of the sample space, it may consist of one or more
Terms outcomes
 Tree diagram
 a visual display of the outcomes of a probability experiment by
using branches that originate from a starting point.
 can be used to find number of possible outcomes in a sample
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Probability experiment Sample space

Toss a coin Head, tail

Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Example 3.1 Answer a true/false question True, false

Toss two coins

HH, HT, TH, TT
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 Find the sample space and determine the number of outcomes

for the following probability experiments
1. rolling two dice
2. the gender of the children if a family has three children
3. tossing a coin and then rolling a die
4. recording a response to the survey statement at the left,
Example 3.2 and the gender of the respondent
5. recording a response to the survey
statement at the left, and the
geographic location (Northeast, South,
Midwest, West ) of the respondent
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 Events are often represented by uppercase letters such

as A, B, and C.
 An event that consists of a single outcome is called a
simple event.
 Example:
 Tossing heads and rolling a 3
Simple Event
 can be represented as A = { H3 }
 In contrast, the event “tossing heads and rolling an
even number” is not simple. Why?
Its has 3 possible outcomes: {H2, H4, H6}
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 Determine the number of outcomes in each event. Then

decide whether each event is simple or not. Explain
your reasoning.
 For quality control, you randomly select a machine
part from a batch that has been manufactured that
day. Event A is selecting a specific defective
Example 3.3 machine part.
 You roll a six-sided die. Event B is rolling at least a
4.
 You ask a student’s age at his/her last birthday.
 Event C is the age is from 18 to 23.
 Event D is the age is 20.
 11

 Once we have a sample space for an experiment, we

need to specify the probability of each event.

 We use the letter “P” to denote probabilities.

Probability  For example, if we toss a coin, we denote the

probability that the coin lands heads by “P(Heads).”

Notation: If A denotes an event, the probability of event

A occurring is denoted by P(A).
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 The probability of an event is always from 0 to 1.

That is, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
 If the probability of an event is 1 (P(A) = 1), the event
is certain to occur.

Rules of  If the probability of an event is 0 (P(A) = 1), the event

is impossible to occur.
Probability
 A probability of 0.5 indicates that an event has an even
chance of occurring.
 The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes in a
sample space is 1 or 100%.
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 The following graph shows the possible range of

probabilities and their meaning:

Impossible Even chance Certain

Unlikely Likely

Probability 0 0.5 1

 An event that occurs with a probability of 0.05 or less

is typically considered unusual.
 Unusual events are highly unlikely to occur.
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 Probabilities can be written as fraction, decimals, or

percent.
 When expressing the value , either give the reduced
fraction or rounded to two or three decimal places
Rounding off  Suggestion: When a probability is not a simple
Probability fraction such as 2/3 or 5/9, express it as a decimal so
that the number can be better understood.
 When the probability of an event is an extremely small
decimal, it is permissible to round the decimal to the
first nonzero digit after the decimal point
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 Method that will be use to calculate a probability

depends on the type of probability
Probability 1. Classical/Theoretical probability
approaches 2. Empirical/statistical probability
3. Subjective probability
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Classical /
theoretical  uses when each outcome in a sample space is equally
Approach likely
P(A)  to Number of outcomes in A
occur. 
k
Number of outcomes in the sample space n
 If a sample space has n equally likely outcomes, and an
event A has k outcomes, then
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1. Rolling a die. Find the probability of getting the

following number.
3
7
 Less than 5

Example 3.4 2. If a family has three children, find the probability that
two of the three children are girls.

3. If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability of

getting a sum of 7 or 11.
  Sampling an individual from a population is a
probability experiment. The population is the sample
space and members of the population are equally likely
outcomes.
Example 3.5:
There are 10,000 families in a certain town categorized
as follows:
Sampling from Own a house Own a condo Rent a house Rent an apartment
a Population 4753 1478 912 2857

A pollster samples a single family from this

population. What is the probability that the sampled
family rents?
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 uses when the experiment is repeated many time  regular patterns are
formed
 uses even if each outcome of an event is not equally likely to occur
 Probability is based on observations obtained from probability experiment
 The law of large numbers says that if we repeat a probability experiment

Empirical / again and again (large number of times), then the relative frequency of a
particular outcome (an event) occurs tends to approach the theoretical
Statistical (actual) probability.

Approach  Conduct (or observe) a probability experiment, and count the number of
times event A actually occurs. Based on these actual results, P(A) is
approximated as follows:

Number of times A occured f

P(A)  
Number of times procedure wa s repea ted n
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A company is conducting a telephone survey of

randomly selected individuals to get their overall
impressions of past decades (2000s). So far, 1504 people
have been surveyed. The frequency distribution shows
the results. What is the probability that the next person
surveyed has a positive overall impression of the 2000s?
Example 3.6
 Example 3.5
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 An insurance company determines that in every 100 claims, 4 are

fraudulent. What is the probability that the next claim the company
processes will be fraudulent?

 You survey a sample of 1000 employees at a company and record

the age of each. The results are shown in the frequency distribution
Example 3.7 below. If you randomly select another employee, what is the
probability that the employee will be between 25 and 34 years old?
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value of probability is estimated using knowledge of

the relevant circumstances (an educated guess,
Subjective intuition, and inexact information)
Approach
Example 3.8:
A physician might say that, on the basis of her
diagnosis, there is a 30% chance the patient will need
an operation.
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 Classify each statement as an example of classical probability, empirical

probability, or subjective probability. Explain your reasoning.
a. The probability that you will get the flu this year is 0.1.

b. The probability that a voter chosen at random will be younger than

35 years old is 0.3.
Exercise 3.1
c. The probability of winning a 1000-ticket raffle with one ticket is .
d. Based on previous counts, the probability of a salmon successfully
passing through a dam on the Columbia river is 0.85.
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 The complement of event A is the set of all outcomes

in a sample space that are not included in event A.
 The complement of event A is denoted by A’ or
 The Venn diagram can be used to illustrate the
Complementary relationship between the sample space, an event A, and

Event its complement A’.

 Example: Roll a die and let E be the event “the
number is at least 5”.
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 The probability rule of complementary event can be

stated algebraically in three ways:

1. 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) +𝑃 ( 𝐴′ )=1
2. 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ′ )=1 − 𝑃 ( 𝐴)
Probability of 3. 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) =1− 𝑃 ( 𝐴′)
Complementary
Event
 Example 3.9: 1010 United States adults were surveyed
and 202 of them were smokers
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1) You are planning a three-day trip to Johor in October.

 Draw a sunny day/rainy day tree diagram for your trip
 List the sample space
 List the outcome(s) of the event “It rains all three days”.
Exercise 3.2 –  List the outcome(s) of the event “It rains on exactly one day”.
Tree Diagram  List the outcome(s) of the event “It rains on at least one day”.

2) Your company buys machine parts from two different suppliers.

Draw a tree diagram that shows the two suppliers and whether
the parts they supply are defective.
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 A stem-and-leaf plot for the number of touchdowns

scored by all NCAA Division I Football Bowl
Subdivision teams is shown. If a team is selected at
random, find the probability the team scored (a) at least
51 touchdowns, (b) from 20 to 30 touchdowns, (c)
Exercise 3.3 more than 69 touchdowns. Are any of these events
unusual? Explain.
 CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY & THE
MULTIPLICATION RULE
Part 2
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 To find the probability of an event given that another event

has occurred
 To distinguish between independent and dependent events

Objectives  To use the multiplication rule to find the probability of two

events occurring in sequence
 To use the multiplication rule to find conditional
probabilities
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 We must know how to find conditional probabilities

before finding the probability that two events occur in
sequence.

 A conditional probability is the probability of an event

Conditional occurring, given that another event has already
Probability occurred.

 The conditional probability of event B occurring given

that event A has occurred, is denoted by P(B|A) and is
read as “probability of B, given A”.
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 Table below shows the results of a study in which

researchers examined a child’s IQ and the presence of a
specific gene in the child. Find the probability that a child,
 has a high IQ given that the child has the gene. (0.458)
 does not have the gene. (0.294)
Example 3.10  does not have the gene given that the child has a normal
IQ. (0.22)
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 In some experiments, one event does not affect the

probability of another.

Independent  Example: Roll a die and toss a coin. The outcome of the
roll of the die does not affect the probability of the coin
and Dependent landing on heads  these two events are independent.
Event
 We can use conditional probabilities to determine
whether events are independent.
 Two events are independent if the occurrence of one of
the events does not affect the probability of the
occurrence of the other event.
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 Two events A and B are independent if

or if

 Events that are not independent are dependent.

Independent
and Dependent  To determine if A and B are independent
Event  1st: Calculate the probability of event B, P(B).
 2nd: Calculate the probability of B given A, P(B|A).
 3rd: If P(B) = P(B|A), the events are independent.
If P(B) ≠ P(B|A), the events are dependent
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 Classify whether the events are independent or dependent.

 Tossing a coin and getting a head (A), and then rolling a die and
obtaining a 6 (B).
 Selecting a king from a standard deck (A), not replacing it, and
then selecting a queen from the deck (B).
Exercise 3.4  Driving over 135 kilometer per hour (A), and then getting in a car
accident (B).
 Smoking a pack of cigarettes per day (A) and developing
emphysema, a chronic lung disease (B).
 Exercising frequently (A) and having a 4.0 grade point average
(B).
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 We use this rule to find the probability of two events occurring in

sequence.
 The probability that two events A and B will occur in sequence is

Multiplication 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) ∙ 𝑃 ( 𝐵∨ 𝐴 )
Rule  If events A and B are independent, then the rule can be simplified

𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) ∙ 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )
 This simplified rule can be extended to any number of independe
events.
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 To use this rule,

 1st: Find the probability that the first event occurs
 2nd: Find the probability that the second event occurs given
that the first event has occurred
 3rd: Multiply these two probabilities

Example 3.11  Example 3.11:

 Two cards are selected, without replacing the first card from
a standard deck. Find the probability of selecting a king
then selecting a queen. (0.006)
 A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the probability of
tossing a head and then rolling a 6. (0.083)
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 The probability that a salmon swims successfully through a dam

is 0.85. Find the probability that two salmon swim successfully
through the dam. (0.723)
 Two cards are selected from a standard deck without
replacement. Find the probability that they are both hearts.
(0.059)

Example 3.12  The probability that a particular knee surgery is successful is

0.85.
 Find the probability that three knee surgeries are successful.
 Find the probability that none of the three knee surgeries are
successful. (0.003)
 Find the probability that at least one of the three knee
surgeries are successful. (0.997)
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a) In a jury selection pool, 65% of the people are female.

Of these 65%, one out of four works in a health field.
i. Find the probability that a randomly selected
person from the jury pool is female and works in
Exercise 3.5 a health field. (0.163)
ii. Find the probability that a randomly selected
person from the jury pool is female and does not
work in a health field. (0.488)
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b) More than 15,000 U.S. medical school seniors applied to residency
programs in 2009. Of those, 93% were matched with residency positions.
Eighty-two percent of the seniors matched with residency positions were
matched with one of their top three choices. Medical students
electronically rank the residency programs in their order of preference, and
program directors across the United States do the same. The term “match”
refers to the process whereby a student’s preference list and a program
director’s preference list overlap, resulting in the placement of the student
in a residency position.
Exercise 3.5 i. Find the probability that a randomly selected senior was matched
with a residency position and it was one of the senior’s top three
choices. (0.763)
ii. Find the probability that a randomly selected senior who was
matched with a residency position did not get matched with one of
the senior’s top three choices. (0.18)
iii. Would it be unusual for a randomly selected senior to be matched
with a residency position and that it was one of the senior’s top three
choices?
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c) Classify whether the events are independent or dependent.

Explain your reasoning.
i. Selecting a king from a standard deck, replacing it, and then
selecting a queen from the deck.
ii. Returning a rented movie after the due date and receiving a late
fee.

Exercise 3.5 iii. A father having hazel eyes and a daughter having hazel eyes.
iv. Not putting money in a parking meter and getting a parking
ticket.
v. Rolling a six-sided die and then rolling the die a second time so
that the sum of the two rolls is five.
vi. A ball numbered from 1 through 52 is selected from a bin,
replaced, and then a second numbered ball is selected from the
bin.
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a) The table shows the results of a survey in which 146 families

were asked if they own a computer and if they will be taking a
summer vacation during the current year.
i. Find the probability that a randomly selected family is not taking a
summer vacation this year.
ii. Find the probability that a randomly selected family owns a
computer.

Exercise 3.6 iii. Find the probability that a randomly selected family is taking a
summer vacation this year, given that they own a computer.
iv. Find the probability that a randomly selected family is taking a
summer vacation this year and owns a computer.
v. Are the events “owning a computer” and “taking a summer
vacation this year” independent or dependent events? Explain .
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b) Sixteen batteries are tested to see if they last as long as the

manufacturer claims. Four batteries fail the test. Two batteries are
selected at random without replacement.
i. Find the probability that both batteries fail the test.
ii. Find the probability that both batteries pass the test.
iii. Find the probability that at least one battery fails the test.
iv. Which of the events can be considered unusual? Explain.
Exercise 3.6 c) The probability that an airplane flight departs on time is 0.89. The
probability that a flight arrives on time is 0.87. The probability
that a flight departs and arrives on time is 0.83.
i. Find the probability that a flight departed on time given that
it arrives on time.
ii. Find the probability that a flight arrives on time given that it
departed on time.
The Addition Rule
Part 3
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 To determine if two events are mutually exclusive

Objectives  To use the addition rule to find the probability of two events
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 Previously, we find the probability of two events A and B

occurring in sequence denoted by P(A and B).
 In this section, we will find the probability that at least
one of two events will occur
 A occurs and B does not occur
Mutually  B occurs and A does not occur
Exclusive  A and B both occur
Event  Probabilities of these are denoted by P(A or B) and
depend on whether the events are mutually exclusive.
 Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if A and B
cannot occur at the same time.
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 The Venn diagram show the relationship between

events that are mutually exclusive and events that are
not mutually exclusive.

Mutually
Exclusive
Event
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Decide if the events are mutually exclusive.

a) Event A: Roll a 3 on a die
Event B: Roll a 4 on a die.

b) Event A: Randomly select a male student

Example 3.13 Event B: Randomly select a nursing major

c) Event A: Randomly select a blood donor with type O blood

Event B: Randomly select a female blood donor
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 The probability that events A or B will occur, P(A B)

is given by
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 )=𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) +𝑃 ( 𝐵 ) −𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵 )

 If events A and B mutually exclusive, then the rule can be

simplified to
Additional Rule
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )

 In words, to find the probability that one event or the

other will occur, add the individual probabilities of each
event and subtract the probability that they both occur.
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a) Select a card from a standard deck. Find the

probability that the card is 4 or an ace. (0.154)

Example 3.14
b) Roll a die. Find the probability of rolling a number
less than 3 or rolling and odd number. (0.667)
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A blood bank catalogues the types of blood including positive or
negative Rh-factor, given by donors during the last five days. The
number of donors who gave each blood type is shown in the table. A
donor is selected at random. Find the probability that the donor has
a) type O or type A blood. (0.851)
b) type B blood or is Rh-negative. (0.249)

Example 3.15 Rh-factor Blood type

Total
O A B AB

Positive 156 139 37 12 344

Negative 28 25 8 4 65

Total 184 164 45 16 409

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End of Chapter 3