INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

N.B.Fernandez
 PROBABILITY
Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with
calculating the likelihood of a given event's occurrence,
which is expressed as a number between 0 and 1. It is a
numerical description of how likely an event is to occur or
how likely it is that a proposition is true. The higher the
probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event
will occur.
 PROBABILITY
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood
that an event will occur.

Probability values are always assigned on a scale

from 0 to 1.

A probability near zero indicates an event is quite

unlikely to occur.
A probability near one indicates an event is almost
certain to occur.
 PROBABILITY
In statistics, the notion of an experiment differs
somewhat from that of an experiment in the
physical sciences.

In statistical experiments, probability determines

outcomes.

Even though the experiment is repeated in exactly

the same way, an entirely different outcome may
occur.

For this reason, statistical experiments are some-

times called RANDOM EXPERIMENTS.
 Types of Probability

There are three basic interpretations of probability:

1. Classical probability

2. Empirical or relative frequency probability

3. Subjective probability
 Types of Probability
Subjective probability uses a probability value based
on an educated guess or estimate, employing opinions
and inexact information. Assigning probabilities based on
judgment. It contains no formal calculations and only
reflects the subject's opinions and past experience.
 Types of Probability
Empirical probability relies on actual experience to
determine the likelihood of outcomes. Assigning probabilities
based on experimentation or historical data.

Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event

being in a given class is:

Frequency of the class f

P(E) = --------------------------------- P(E) = ----
Total frequency of the distribution n
 Suppose that a researcher asked 25 people if they liked the
taste of a new soft drink. The response were classified as
“yes, no or undecided”. The result were categorized in a
frequency distribution:

Response Frequency
YES 15
NO 8
UNDECIDED 2
Total 25

The probability of selecting a person who liked the taste is 15/25 or

60%
 Types of Probability

Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine

the numerical probability that an event will happen.

Number of outcomes that produce any event A

P(A) = ----------------------------------------
Total number of possible outcomes
 Classical Probability
Suppose a “fun size” bag of M&Ms contains 9 brown
candies, 6 yellow candies, 7 red candies, 4 orange
candies, 2 blue candies, and 2 green candies.
Suppose that a candy is randomly selected.

(a) What is the probability that it is brown?

(b) What is the probability that it is blue?

(c) What is the probability that it is not blue?

 Probability Rules

1. The probability of an event E is a number between

and including 0 and 1.

0  P(E)  1
2. If an event E cannot occur, the probability is ZERO.
3. If an event E is certain, then probability of E is 1.
4. The sum of the probabilities of the outcomes in the
sample space is 1.
 SAMPLE SPACES AND EVENTS
Experiment is any process that yields a measurement.

Each statistical experiment has a SAMPLE SPACE - a set

of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment and
represented by a symbol S. It can be also be called as a
collection of simple events.
 SAMPLE SPACES AND EVENTS
I. SETS, SUBSETS AND SAMPLE SPACE

SET is a well defined collection of distinct things or objects.

ELEMENTS of a set can be specified by simply listing the

elements inside a pair of braces
- the things that belong to or contained in a set

SUBSET – is any part of a set.

EXPERIMENT is any process that yields a measurements.

Each statistical experiment has a SAMPLE SPACE.
 Simple Set Example
 the universal set is
a deck of ordinary
playing cards
 each card is an element
in the universal set
 some subsets are:
◦ face cards
◦ numbered cards
◦ suits
◦ Black cards
 SAMPLE SPACES AND EVENTS
➢ A probability experiment is a chance process that
leads to well-defined results called outcomes.

➢ An outcome is the result of a single trial of a

probability experiment.

➢ Trial – is a repetition of an experiment

➢ A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes

of a probability experiment.

➢ An event consists of a set of outcomes of a

probability experiment.
 SAMPLE SPACES AND EVENTS
EVENT - is a subset of a sample space. Event is any
particular outcome or group of outcomes from an
experiment.
Simple event – an event with one outcome.
Compound event – an event with more than one
outcome
EMPTY SET or NULL SET (  ) –a set that contains no
elements at all.
Example: In simultaneous toss of two coins, the sample space is …

Event A= getting both tails

Event B = at least one tail

 Example:
You work in a cell phone factory and are asked to remove
cell phones at random off of the assembly line and turn it
on and off.

 Each time you remove a cell phone and turn it on and

off, you are conducting a random experiment.

 Each time you pick up a phone is a trial and the result is

called an outcome.

 If you check 200 phones, and you find 5 bad phones,

then relative frequency of failure = 5/200 = 0.025
 Sample Space Is Defined By A Tree Diagram

A tree diagram is simply a way of representing a

sequence of events. It shows all the possible events. The
first event is represented by a dot. From the dot, branches
are drawn to represent all possible outcomes of the
event.
New cars can be equipped with selected options as follows:
1. Manual or automatic transmission
2. With or without air conditioning
3. Three choices of stereo sound systems
4. Four exterior color choices
 SAMPLE SPACE
1. What is the sample space for choosing an odd
number from 1 to 11 at random?

2. What is the sample space for choosing 1 letter at

random from 5 vowels?

3. What is the sample space for choosing a prime

number less than 15 at random?
4. Construct a sample space that describes all three-
child families according to the genders of the children
with respect to birth order.
6. Suppose we flip a coin and spin a spinner with
three colors at the same time. What is the sample
space when we both flip the coin and spin the
spinner.
7. An experiment consists of tossing a die and then flipping a coin once if the
number on the die is even. If the number on the die is odd, the coin is flipped
twice. Using the notation 4H, for example, to denote the simple event that the
die comes up 4 and then the coin comes up heads, and 3HT to denote the
simple event that the die comes up 3 followed by a head and then a tail on the
coin, list the 18 elements of the sample space S.
 Some Basic Relationships of Probability

There are some basic probability relationships that can be

used to compute the probability of an event without
knowledge of all the sample point probabilities.

Complement of an Event

Union of Two Events

Intersection of Two Events

Mutually Exclusive Events

 Combination of Events
UNION of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes
that are contained in either of two events. We denote union as
(A U B)

INTERSECTION of two events is the event that consists of all

outcomes that are contained in both of the two events. We
denote the intersection as (A ∩ B).
 Combination of Events
COMPLEMENT of an event in a sample space is the set of
outcomes in the sample space that are not in the event. This
subset is given by the symbol
 Complementary Events

The complementary of an event E is the set of outcomes in

the sample space that are not included in the outcomes of
event E. The complement of E is denoted by E’

a) P(E’) = 1 – P(E),

b) P(E) = 1 – P(E’),

c) P(E) + P(E’) = 1
 Complementary Events

Find the complement of each event:

1. Drawing a playing and getting face cards.

2. Rolling a pair of dice and getting the same number.
1. LET: S ={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}

A= {0,2,4,7,9}

B= {1,3,5,7,9 }

C= {2,3,4,5}

D= {1,5,7}

Find the following:

a. (A U C) ∩ D
b. (C’ ∩ B) U A
c. (A ∩ B)’ ∩ D
 Some Basic Relationships of Probability

There are some basic probability relationships that can be

used to compute the probability of an event without
knowledge of all the sample point probabilities.

Complement of an Event

Union of Two Events

Intersection of Two Events

Mutually Exclusive Events

 Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are mutually exclusive or disjoint events if

one occurs the other cannot. In a set theory language,
the events are mutually exclusive if they do not share
any elements; they have no outcomes in common.

A B
 Not Mutually Exclusive Events

A B

Two events are not mutually exclusive if they can

occur at the same time.
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and which are
not, when a single die is rolled

1. Getting an odd number and getting an even number

2. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number
3. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4
4. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less
than 4
 Addition Rules
Addition Rule 1 – When two events A and B are mutually
exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Addition Rule 2 – When two events A and B are NOT

mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

 Addition Rules
1. Find the possibilities of selecting a queen or a heart when you
draw a single card from a deck. (4+13-1/52) (Not Mutually )
2. Find the possibilities of selecting a queen or a king when you
draw a single card from a deck. (8/52) (Mutually)
3. A card is drawn from a deck, find the probabilities of getting a 3
or a diamond? (16/52) (Not Mutually)
4. A card is drawn from a deck, find the probabilities of getting a 3
or a 6? (8/52) (Mutually)
 VENN DIAGRAM
It is a pictorial representation of sets where sets are represented by
enclosed areas in the plane. It shows a sample space and events
within the space

A C
A A B
B

(A U B) = A + B AUBUC=A+B+C

A B A C

(A U B) = A + B – (A  B)
(A U B U C) = A+B+C –AB-AC-BC+ABC
 Venn Diagrams Show Event Relations
Events A & B contain their respective outcomes. The shaded regions
indicate the event relation of each diagram.
A. Draw a Venn Diagram which divides the twelve months of
the year into the following two groups:
Months whose name begins with the letter “J” and Months
whose name ends in “ber”.

B. Fifty people were surveyed and only 20 people said that

they regularly eat Healthy Foods like Fruit and Vegetables.
Of these 20 healthy eaters, 12 said that they ate Vegetables
every day. Draw a Venn Diagram to represent the result.
1. From the adjoining Venn diagram, find the following sets.

a. A
b. B
c. A'
d. B'
e. C'
f. C–A
g. B–C
h. A–B
i. A∪B
j. B∪C
k. A∩C
l. B∩C
2. A spinner with 9 equal parts numbered 1 to 9 is spun. A is the
event “the spinner lands on odd number” and B is the event
“the spinner lands on a number >6”. The outcomes of this
experiment are shown below

S
A B
7
1 3 8
9
5
6
2 4

Use the diagram to list the outcomes in these events:

1. A number greater than 6 that is not odd.

2. A number not >6
3. A number that is odd or >6 but not both
4. An odd number not > 6
3. In a school of 320 students, 85 students are in the band,
200 students are on sports teams, and 60 students
participate in both activities. How many students are
involved in either band or sports?
4. A veterinarian surveys 28 of his patrons. He discovers that 12
have dogs, 10 have cats, and 6 have fish. 4 have dogs and cats,
3 have dogs and fish, and 2 has a cat and fish. If one has all
three kinds of pets, how many patrons have none of these
pets? How many patrons have at least 2 pets?
5. 150 college freshmen were interviewed. 85 were registered
for a Math class, 70 were registered for an English class
and 50 were registered for both Math and English
a) How many signed up only for a Math Class?
b) How many signed up only for an English Class?
c) How many signed up for Math or English?
d) How many signed up neither for Math nor English?
6. A survey was conducted of 100 people to find out whether they had
read recent issues of FHM, a monthly magazine. The summarized
information regarding readership in 3 months is given below:
Only September: 18; July: 48; September: 28;
None of the three months: 24; September and July: 8;
September but not August: 23; July and August: 10

What is the number of surveyed people who have read exactly two
consecutive issues (out of the three)? How many people have read the
August issue only?
7. In a survey carry out in a school snack shop, the following
result were obtained; of 100 boys questioned, 78 liked
sweets, 74 liked ice creams, 53 for cakes, 57 liked both
sweets and ice cream, 46 liked both sweet and cake while
only 31 boys like all three. If all the boys interviewed liked at
least one item, draw a Venn Diagram to illustrate the results.
How many boys like both ice cream and cake?
COUNTING RULES
 COUNTING RULES
Used to count the number of outcomes of an event.
When selecting elements of a set, the number of
possible outcomes depends on the conditions under
which the selection has taken place. There are at least 4
rules to count the number of possible outcomes:

1. Multiplicative rule
2. Permutations rule
3. Combinations rule
4. Partitions rule