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Boy or girl
Probability is a numerical measure of the chances or likelihood of
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happen e.g. death. On the other hand some events will certainly
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not happen, e.g. meeting a person with three eyes! In some cases
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happen) whilst in other cases the chances are low (i.e.. closer to
“certainly not happen”). This means, probability, as a measure,
lies between the two extremes ‘will certainly happen’ and ‘will Three eyed man
certainly not happen’.
24.
There are many other uses.
Probability
Syllabus
Expectations
By the end of this chapter, students should be able to:
3
solve simple problems involving:
(i) single events.
(ii) more than one event.
ASSUMED KNOWLEDGE
145
reduce common fractions to their lowest terms or to their
simplest form.
Supposing a bag contains 5 red balls and 7 blue balls; all identical
except for colour. Before a ball is picked from the bag, the bag is
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picking a ball randomly from the bag above) is done 50 times and
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a blue ball from this bag will be 28 Number of successes
=
50 Total possible outcomes
Thus 0 Probability 1
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The size of the fraction indicates whether the chances are high or
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low.
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Practicei.e.
Low 1 High
0 Chances 2 Chances
1
Equal chances
Fig. 24.1
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Events are normally denoted by capital letters and capital P usually
Example(s) stands for the probability.
(s)
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P(Red) reads ‘the probability of picking a red ball’.
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It is also important to note that opposing events have
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complementary probabilities
5 5
e.g. If P(Red) = 12 , then P(Not Red) = 1 – 12
7
= 12
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26 Black + 26 Red
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Practice (13 Spades + 13 clubs) (13 Hearts + 13 Diamonds)
It is important that you have a thorough knowledge of the
24.
contents of the pack of cards.
Whilst these are the most common games used, other games
Probability
exist and their appropriate rules should be followed.
Example(s)
(s)
Playing cards
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Practice that the outcome is:
a) a prime number b) a factor of 18
Example(s)
Solution
(s)
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1. a) Primes 2, 3, 5 b) F18 = 1, 2, 3, 6
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∴ P(prime) = 63 ∴ P(F18) = 64
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Practice
1 2
= 2 = 3
Solution
(s)
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∴ P(Queen) = 4
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Practice
1
= 13
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Example(s)
b) There are 2 black Aces in the pack
(s)
2
∴ P(a black Ace) = 52
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Practice 26
39 3
= 52
= 4
(s)
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Solution
3. Method 1
Example(s)
∴ Number of Boys = 42 – 4 V 42
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= 42 – 24
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Practice Method 2
4
P(Girls) = 7
P(Boys) = 1 – 47
= 37
∴ Number of Boys = 3
7
of 42
= 18
24A
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of getting:
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(iii) Probability.
(s)
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1 . How many tickets did
Sibongile wins the first prize is 25
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Sibongile buy?
b) John bought 45 tickets for this raffle. What is the
probability of John winning the first price?
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4. A bag contains 3 red balls, 5 black balls and 4 yellow balls all
Example(s) identical except for colour. One ball is picked at random from
(s)
this bag. What is the probability of picking:
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a) a yellow ball? b) no red ball?
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5. What is the probability that the next person you meet was
born:
a) in January, June or July?
b) on 1, 10 or 30 August?
c) on 30 February?
6. 12cm
123456789012345678 Fig 24.2 shows a rectangle
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123456789012345678 measuring 12cm by 8cm.
123456789012345678
123456789012345678
123456789012345678
123456789012345678
123456789012345678 8cm
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Fig 24.2
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Practice MATHEMATICIA. What is the probability that the letter is
a) A? b) a vowel? c) not M? d) not E?
Probability
8. A group of 30 students were asked if they watched ZBC or
SABC news on a certain day and time.
If 2 watched neither, 6 watched both and 15 watched SABC
news, what is the probability of picking a student who
watched
a) SABC news only? b) ZBC news?
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10. 123456789012345678901234567890 Fig 24.3 shows a circular
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(s)
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10 disc of radius 10cm with a hole
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6
123456789012345678901234567890 A gambler tries to throw a small
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Practice 123456789012345678901234567890
123456789012345678901234567890 stone through the hole. What is
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123456789012345678901234567890 the probability of the stone:
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Fig 24.3
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B. COMBINED PROBABILITIES
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events.
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This means that one excludes the other.
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Practice 10
= 26
5
= 13
But instead of combining all the elements of the two events, separate
probabilities can be used to produce the same result.
P(A or C) = P(A) + P(C)
5 5
= 26 + 26
10
= 26
5
= 13
This idea gives us the Addition law of probabilities.
(s)
Notice:
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successes space is widened by the ‘either or’ set up, hence addition
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Practiceof the probabilities – to make the result bigger.
150
2. Independent events have no effect on the other. For example
Example(s)
picking a vowel from the alphabet and throwing a die. What
is happening in the alphabet has no effect on what is
(s)
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Practice B = {Getting an even number from a die}.
5 3
P(A) = 26 , P(B) = 6
24.
(i) either A or B implies addition law.
Catch words to note!
Probability
(ii) A and B, A followed by B, A then B both A and B imply
product law.
(s)
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a) a spade or a 2 of hearts?
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Practice b) an 8 of clubs and an 8 of diamonds?
Solution
= 13 + 1
(s)
52 52
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52
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= 26
1
b) P(8 of spade and an 8 of diamonds) = 52
V 1
52
1
= 2704
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Example(s)
(s)
If the first card is not replaced, then P(8 of spades then an 8 of
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diamonds) = 52 V 1
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So 1
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Practice
Note that:
After the first pick, the total cards changes from 52 to 51, hence
1
51 for the second pick.
Watch out for the ‘with or without replacement’ statements.
Example(s)
24B
(s)
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Practice picking:
a) an ace? b) either a club or a red ace
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6. Two discs are picked one after the other, with replacement.
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7. Two discs are picked, one after the other, without replacement.
Find the probability that:
a) the first disc is black and the second red.
b) the first and second discs are yellow.
c) the first is red and the second is yellow.
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8. The pointer on the number wheel, in
Example(s) 1 5 Fig 24.4, is spun and, when it stops
4 2 spinning, it could be pointing at any one
(s) 3 1 of the numbers marked.
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Practice
Fig 24.4
Find the probability of the arrow pointing at:
a) a 3 or a 5. b) a 1 or a 3.
c) a 1 or a 4. d) a 5 or a 4.
9. If, the arrow in Fig 24.4 is spun twice, find the probability that
it points at:
a) a 2 followed by a 1.
b) a 1 followed by a 1.
c) a 5 then a 3.
d) a 4 in both cases.
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Practice
Probability
11. A fridge contains x Fanta cans and y Cola cans. If a can is
taken from the fridge at random, the probability that it is a
Fanta can is 72 .
a) Write down an equation connecting x and y.
b) If there were 3 more Fanta cans in the fridge, the
probability of taking a Fanta can would be 13 .
(i) Form another equation connecting x and y.
(ii) Find the value of x and the value of y.
6 x x x x x x same number
(s)
2nd
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4 x x x x x x
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Practice 3 x x x x x x
2 x x x x x x
1 x x x x x x
sum is 7
1 2 3 4 5 6
Fig 24.5 1st Die
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Notice the possible combinations are clearly 36.
Thus the favourable outcomes are simply picked from the
total 36.
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Practice b) the sum of the faces shown is 7.
Solution
6
∴ P(Same number)
(s)
= 36
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=
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b) From the diagram, mark combinations which give a sum
of 7.
6
P(Sum is 7) = 36
1
= 6
(s)
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(s)
Solution
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Practice 1st pick 7
5 R 11
12
B
5 R
11
7
12 B 6
11
Example(s)
Fig 24.6
(s)
B
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Notice that:
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Practice the question. It then follows that if there were 3 colours, the
tree would start with 3 branches.
each branch stands for the probability of getting the colour at
the end of that branch, i.e. red (R) blue (B).
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Example(s)
A closer study of the branches will reveal that:
(s)
each pair of branches is complementary i.e. the 2 probabilities
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add up to 1.
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the denominator at each pick is the same and depends on
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Practice the ‘with or without’ condition.
12 11
red blue
(s)
= 5 V 7 B
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12 11
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b) P(RR or BB)
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4 R Same colour
= 5 V 4 + 7 V 6
11
12 11 12 11 5
12 R
Probability
= 20 + 42 OR (add)
132 132
7 B
62 12
= 6
132 B Same colour
11
= 31
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Using the same bag as in example (2) on page 154 but this
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time with replacement, the tree diagram would look like
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Solution 5
12 R
5 7
Example(s)
12 R
12
(s)
7 5 B
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12
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Practice B
5 7 5 V 5 + 7 V 7
a) P(RB) = 12 V 12 b) P(RR OR BB) =
12 12
12 12
35 25 49
= =
144 144 + 144
74
= 144
37
= 72
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Hint e.g. (1) Tossing a coin 3 times
is a with replacement situation since the coin has
Some problems do
not say whether it is to be used again or you cannot continue, the
a ‘with or without’ result is always, head or tail.
replacement situa-
tion. However the (2)
If people are involved (e.g. choosing prefects), this
item under discus- is a without replacement situation since once
sion should give a
one is chosen, they can no longer be part of the
guide.
number under consideration again. It is the rest who
are to compete next.
Watch out and make a logical decision.
Example(s)
(s)
24C
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Practice1. A coin is tossed and a die is thrown and the results noted.
Use an outcome table to calculate the probability of getting:
a) a head and a 5.
b) a tail and a factor of 6.
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What is the probability that the committee is made of:
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Practice a) 1 boy, 2 girls?
b) 2 boys, 1 girl?
c) all members of the same sex?
156
Example(s)
6. The table below shows the distribution of the marks scored
(s)
by 200 students in their final examination.
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Marks 0 to 19 20 to 39 40 to 59 60 to 79 80 to 99
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Practice f 11 30 55 72 32
(s)
probability of getting:
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Practice c) at least two tails.
24.
A ball is picked at random from the bag, its colour noted and
it is put away. Another ball is then picked from the bag. What
Probability
is the probability that:
a) the first ball is red and the second white?
b) the two balls are of the same colour?
c) at least one of the balls is black?
Example(s)
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Practice b) Using the table or otherwise, find the probability that
(i) the total of the scores will be more than 15 but less
than or equal to 18.
(ii) the product of the scores will be less than 30.
(iii) the first shows a prime number whilst the second
shows is an odd number.
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10. The Tree diagram below in Fig 24.8 shows the probabilities
Example(s) of picking counters from a box containing red (R) and white
(s)
(W) counters.
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() R
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Practice 6 ( 83 )
9 R
W
() () R
R
7
( 10 W ()
(
W
3
( 10 ( ( 68 ) R
() R ()
W () W
R
Example(s)
()
(s)
W
( 18 )
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W
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Fig 24.7
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Practice
a) Say whether the situation is a ‘with or without’
replacement.
b) Copy and complete the tree diagram.
c) How many counters are in the bag at the beginning?
d) Using the diagram or otherwise, find the probability of
picking:
(i) at most two red counters.
(ii) at least two white counters.
(iii) three counters of the same colour.
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1. 0 < Probability < 1
!
Will certainly not Will certainly
happen happen
24.
7. ‘With replacement’ maintains the total i.e. denominator.
Probability
every following stage or pick.
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24
The following examples may help you master skills taught in this
chapter. Study them carefully. Questions usually state the nature
of the answer required.
e.g. give the answer as a common fraction in its lowest terms.
or give the answer as a decimal.
Candidates often lose vital marks due to not paying attention to
this instruction. Watch out!
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Practice your answer as a decimal.
b) If two sweets are picked from the bag, one after the other,
with replacement, calculate the probability, as a DIESEL
20
(s)
3 Common Error
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2)The answer is
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usually left as 3 ,
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4
Maths
= 0,75 disregarding 43 the
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Practice requirements of the
3 1 1 3 question.
b) ∴ P(MC) or (CM) = 5 V 4 + 4 V 5
1) Only one way
= 3 + 3
3 1
5 V 4
20 20
= 6
20 is considered.
6 V 100 % 2) Disregarding the
= instructions.
20 1
= 30%
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2. There are x red and y yellow discs in a bag.
Example(s) A disc is drawn at random from the bag.
(s)
a) Give, in terms of x and y, an expression for the probability
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of drawing a yellow disc.
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Solution
y
2. a)
Example(s)
x+y
(s)
y
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b) x+y = 7
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7y = 3x +3y
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Practice 4y = 3x
∴y = 3 x
4
6
picking a girl from the group was 11 :
(s)
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b) find the number of girls who joined the choir given that
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Practice 12 more students joined the choir, making the probability
of choosing a girl 53 .
24.
2. The probability that Zanele is early for school is 38 and that
Probability
Dumisani is late for school is 25 . Giving each answer as a
common fraction in its lowest terms, find the probability that
on a given day:
a) Zanele is late for school.
b) they are both early for school
c) either Zanele or Dumisani is late for school.
(s)
No. of counters 0 1 2 3 4
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No. of children 3 4 8 2 3
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Practice Pupils are selected at random from the group. Giving your
answer as a common fraction, calculate the probability of
selecting.
a) a pupil with 2 counters.
b) two pupils, one after the other, with 1 counter each.
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5. A woman and her son are both HIV positive. The woman
Example(s) estimates that the probability that she will be alive in the
next 10 years is 0,6 and that her son will be alive in that time
(s)
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is 0,4.
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Practice
a) both will be alive in 10 years?
b) at least one of them will die within 10 years?
7. A bag contains 7 red balls and 5 black balls, all identical except
for colour. 3 balls are picked at random, one after the other,
without replacement.
a) Copy and complete the tree diagram below.
R Note R ⇒ Red
B ⇒ Black
Example(s)
(s)
6
(11 ( R
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B
B
6
( 10 ( R
R 4
( 10 (
B B
R
B
B
Fig 24.8
b) Find the probability that two, of the 3 balls picked, are black.
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