Acknowledgement

First of all, we would like to praise God for making us finish this work successfully. We would
also like to express our heart-felt gratitude to our Math teacher Mr.Yeneneh for giving us this
unique opportunity to do this academic journal on the topic ‘Conditional Probability’, which
helped us to do a lot of studies and improve our understanding on the topic.
Last but not least, we would like to thank our parents and those who were there for us and helped
us in every step of the way.

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Contents
1. Probability..............................................................................................................................................2
1.1. Basic probability terms......................................................................................................................2
1.1.1. Experiment.......................................................................................................................................2
1.1.2. Outcome...........................................................................................................................................3
1.1.3. Sample Space...................................................................................................................................4
1.1.4. Event.................................................................................................................................................5
1.1.5 Trial...................................................................................................................................................5
1.1.5.1. Types of events..............................................................................................................................5
1.1.5.1.1. Simple event...............................................................................................................................5
1.1.5.1.3. Independent events....................................................................................................................6
1.1.5.1.4. Dependent events.......................................................................................................................6
1.1.5.1.5. Mutually exclusive events..........................................................................................................6
1.1.5.1.6. Complementary events..............................................................................................................7
1.1.5.1.7. Exhaustive Events......................................................................................................................7
1.1.5.1.8. Equally Likely Events................................................................................................................7
1.2. Basic probability rules........................................................................................................................7
1.2.1. Addition rule....................................................................................................................................7
1.2.2. Multiplication rule...........................................................................................................................8
1.3. Conditional Probability......................................................................................................................8
1.3.1. Conditional probability and Bayes’ Theorem...............................................................................9
1.3.2. Three event conditional probability...............................................................................................9
1.3.3. Four step Method of Conditional Probability.............................................................................11
1.3.4. Why does tree diagram work?......................................................................................................14
Supplementary Exercise..........................................................................................................................16
Summary..................................................................................................................................................25
Reference..................................................................................................................................................26

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iii
Introduction
Probability is a phenomenon that we all experience in our daily life, from rolling a die to speculating
election results probability is an integral part of our day to day activities.

Probability means possibility. In simple terms, it indicates the likelihood of occurrence or non
occurrence. Probability has basic terminologies such as experiment, event, outcome and sample space,
which will be discussed in detail in this journal.

In this journal, conditional probability, which is defined as the likelihood of an event or outcome
occurring based on the occurrence of a previous event or outcome, will be treated with great level of
specificity and detail. In this specific section we will examine different ways to calculate conditional
probability, including a tree diagram and mathematically justify why it works. We will also discuss the
Bayes’ theorem and the application of probability with regard to conditional probability.

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1. Probability
Probability and statistics are two branches of mathematics concerning the collection, analysis,
interpretation, and display of data in the context of random events. They are often studied
together due to their interrelationship.

1.1. Basic probability terms

In order to discuss probability, it is important to be familiar with the terminologies used. Below
are some of the terms commonly used in probability.

1.1.1. Experiment

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Experiment - a procedure that results in well-defined outcomes. A random experiment is one in

-The experimental probability of an event is based on the number of times the event has
occurred during the experiment and the total number of times the experiment was
conducted. Each possible outcome is uncertain and the set of all the possible outcomes
is called the sample space.

The formula to calculate the experimental probability is: P(E) = Number of times an
event occurs/Total number of times the experiment is conducted

Example:- Consider an experiment of rotating a spinner 50 times. The table given below
shows the results of the experiment conducted. Let us find the experimental probability
of spinning the color - blue.

Color Occurrences

Pink 11

Blue 10

Green 13

Yellow 16

The experimental probability of spinning the color blue = 10/50 = 1/5 = 0.2 = 20%

which it is not possible to determine which exact outcome will occur.

1.1.2. Outcome

Outcome - any possible result contained in a sample space, S. Let's look at an example. Have you
ever had to decide what to wear? This event (selecting what to wear) has an outcome (your outfit
for the day). Let's say you have a red, blue and green shirt. You also have a pair of black pants
and a pair of tan pants.

 The red shirt with the black pants OR the red shirt with tan pants.
 The blue shirt with the black pants OR the blue shirt with tan pants.
 The green shirt with the black pants OR the green shirt with tan pants.

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We have found that there are a total of six possible outcomes for this compound event.

Using Tree Diagrams

Writing out possible outcomes for events can become tiring. So, you can use a tree diagram to
show the possible outcomes of a compound event. A tree diagram is a diagram that branches out
much like a tree. Let's look at a tree diagram for our outfit example from the previous section:

This is a tree diagram of all the shirt and pants combinations.

We start with our shirts at the base of our diagram, and then we branch out from each shirt to add
one of each type of pants. This gives us a visual of how many possible outcomes there are for the
event--simply count the end of each branch and notice there are six outcomes.

Using Multiplication

The quickest method for finding the number of outcomes of an event is to multiply the
possibilities in each event. For instance, to find the number of possible shirt-pants combinations,
you would multiply the number of shirts by the number of pants: 3 x 2 = 6.

1.1.3. Sample Space

Sample space - all possible outcomes of an experiment form a sample space. The sample space
for the flip of a fair coin is S = {heads, tails}.

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Example 1: Tossing a coin
possible outcomes are head or tail.
Sample space, S = {head, tail}

Example 2: Tossing a die

Possible outcomes are the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6
Sample space, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Example 3: Picking a card

In an experiment, a card is picked from a stack of six cards, which spell the word PASCAL.
Possible outcomes are P, A 1, S, C, A 2 and L.
Sample space, S = {P, A 1, S, C, A 2 L}. There are 2 cards with the letter ‘A’

Example 4: Picking 2 marbles, one at a time, from a bag that contains many blue and red
marbles.
Possible outcomes are: (Blue, Blue), (Blue, Red), (Red, Blue) and (Red, Red).
Sample space, S = {(B, B), (B, R), (R, B), (R, R)}.

1.1.4. Event

Event - an event is any subset of a sample space. Given an event, A, when an outcome that
belongs to the subset A occurs, an event has occurred.

For example, given that event A is the event that a fair six-sided die lands on an even number,
the outcomes 2, 4, and 6 all satisfy event A. If any of those values are rolled, event A has
occurred. If 1, 3, or 5, are rolled, event A does not occur.

Suppose a fair die is rolled. The total number of possible outcomes will form the sample space
and are given by {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let an event, E, be defined as getting an even number on the
die. Then E = {2, 4, 6}. Thus, it can be seen that E is a subset of the sample space and is an
outcome of the rolling of a die.

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1.1.5 Trial

Trial - Each flip of a coin, roll of a die, or iteration of an experiment is referred to as a trial. In
the experiment of flipping a coin to determine the number of heads, each flip of the coin is a trial
in the experiment.
Examples: Throwing a die, tossing a coin, rotating a spinner and drawing a card from a pack of
playing cards.

1.1.5.1. Types of events

The above example is the simplest form of probability calculation. There are many other types of
events in probability and it is important to understand each type since the calculation of their
respective probabilities differs.

1.1.5.1.1. Simple event

A simple event is an event that has only one outcome. For example, when flipping a coin, the
outcome of the coin landing on heads is an example of a simple event; the coin landing on tails is
an example of another simple event. The probability of a simple event is calculated as:

n(E)
P(E)=
n(s)

1.1.5.1.2. Compound event

A compound event is an event that includes two or more simple events. Flipping a coin twice and
having it land on heads twice is an example of a compound event. The probability of the coin
landing on heads on the first flip is 50%, and the probability of it landing on heads on the second
flip is also 50%. The probability of a coin landing on heads twice in a row is a compound
probability that is computed as the product of the probabilities of the independent events, or

P(E)= 0.5 x 0.5= 0.25

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1.1.5.1.3. Independent events
Independent events are events in which the outcome of one event is unaffected by the outcome of
another event. Flipping a coin is an example of an independent event because on each flip of a
fair coin, the probability of acquiring a heads or tails is equal. Regardless of the outcome on a
previous flip of a coin, a subsequent flip still has a 50% chance of tails occurring and a 50%
chance of heads occurring.

1.1.5.1.4. Dependent events

Dependent events are events in which the outcome of an event is affected by the outcome of
some other event. For example, given that a bag contains 3 blue marbles and 2 red marbles, if
one of the marbles is removed from the bag, there is a 60% chance that the marble is blue and a
40% chance that the marble is red. If a blue marble is removed from the bag and is not replaced,
the probability of selecting a blue marble on a subsequent trial is no longer 60%. Since there are
now 2 blue marbles and 2 red marbles in the bag, the probability of selecting either is 50%. Since
the probability in the subsequent trial is affected by an outcome in the first, this is an example of
a dependent event.

1.1.5.1.5. Mutually exclusive events

Mutually exclusive events are events that cannot occur at the same time. The outcome of heads
or tails when flipping a coin are examples of mutually exclusive events. In a single flip of a coin,
the coin can only land on heads or tails. If it lands on heads, it means that the coin did not land
on tails (and vice versa), since both cannot occur at the same time.

1.1.5.1.6. Complementary events

The complement of an event, A, denoted AC, is comprised of all outcomes that are not contained
in event A. For example, a fair six-sided die has the possible outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Given
that event A is the probability of rolling an even number, or A = {2, 4, 6}, its complement is Aˈ =
{1, 3, 5}. The probabilities of A and AC must therefore sum to 1. In other words:

P (A) + P (Aˈ) = 1

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1.1.5.1.7. Exhaustive Events
Exhaustive events in probability are those events when taken together from the sample space of a
random experiment. In other words, a set of events out of which at least one is sure to occur
when the experiment is performed are exhaustive events.
For example, the outcome of an exam is either passing or failing.

1.1.5.1.8. Equally Likely Events

Equally likely events in probability are those events in which the outcomes are equally possible.
For example, on tossing a coin, getting a head or getting a tail, are equally likely events.

1.2. Basic probability rules

Probabilities are calculated differently based on a number of factors, including the types of
events involved. Below are three commonly used rules.

1.2.1. Addition rule

If A and B are not mutually exclusive events, the probability of A or B occurring is:

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B), since P(A ∩ B) = 0.

1.2.2. Multiplication rule

The multiplication rule is used to find the probability of two events occurring at the same time.

If A and B are dependent events, the probability of A and B occurring at the same time is:

P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B|A),where P(B|A) is the conditional probability of event B occurring given

that event A has already occurred.

If A and B are independent events, the probability of A and B occurring at the same time is:

P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B)

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1.3. Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is known as the possibility of an event or outcome happening, based on
the existence of a previous event or outcome. It is calculated by multiplying the probability of
the preceding event by the renewed probability of the succeeding, or conditional, event.

1.3.1. Conditional
probability and Bayes’
Theorem
Conditional probability is the likelihood of an outcome occurring, based on a previous outcome
having occurred in similar circumstances. Bayes' theorem provides a way to revise existing
predictions or theories (update probabilities) given new or additional evidence.

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1.3.2. Three event conditional probability
To calculate the probability of the intersection of more than two events, the conditional
probabilities of all of the preceding events must be considered. In the case of three events, A, B,
and C, the probability of the intersection P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = P(A)P(B|A)P(C|A∩ B).

The difference between conditional and unconditional probability

Unconditional probability refers to a probability that is unaffected by previous or future events.

The unconditional probability of event “A” is denoted as P(A). A conditional probability,
contrasted to an unconditional probability, is the probability of an event that would be affected

Conditional Probability for Mutually Exclusive Events

In probability theory, mutually exclusive events are events that cannot occur simultaneously. In
other words, if one event has already occurred, another can event cannot occur. Thus, the
conditional probability of mutually exclusive events is always zero.

Can conditional probability be independent?

A conditional probability can always be computed using the formula in the definition.
Sometimes it can be computed by discarding part of the sample space. Two events A and B are
independent if the probability P(A∩B) of their intersection A∩B is equal to the product
P(A).P(B) of their individual probabilities.

Examples

1) From 52 cards, 2 cards are drawn. Find the probability that both are diamond;

a) Without replacement

b) with replacement

Solution

a) step 1- From 52 cards there are 13 diamond cards

step 2- Let A and B be the first and the second cards respectively, which are diamonds

n( A) 13
step 3) P(A)= =
n (s) 52

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step 4) there was 13diamond cards when one is taken out 12 is left since it is without
replacement

there was 52 cards when one is taken out 51 is left since it is without replacement

12
P(B/A)=
51

step 5) Since we are asked to find the probability of both cards we will use intersection

13 12 156
P(A∩B)= P(A).P(B/A)= x =
52 51 2652

b) it is independent event which means no conditional probability.

13 13
P(A) = and P(B)=
52 52

13 13 169
P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B)= x =
52 52 2704

2) A box contains 8 tickets out of which 5 are even number tickets one ticket is drawn and kept
aside then second ticket is drown. Find the probability that both tickets are even number tickets.

Solution

First, it is a conditional probability as it is without replacement

5
P(A) =
8

4
P(B/A)=
7

5 4 20
P(A∩B)= x =
8 7 56

3) If there are two purses and the first purse contains 2 silvers and 4 coppers while the second
contains 4 silver and 3 copper, what is the probability of randomly selecting a silver coin from
one of the purses?

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Solution

First, we need to choose the purse from which a silver coin will be drawn, so we need to find the
probability of choosing each purse.

1
P(p1)=P(p2)=
2

Then, we need to calculate the probability of drawing silver from each purse.

2 4
P(s1)= P(s2)=
6 7

So to find the probability we need to choose either of the purses and draw a silver coin.

1 2 1 4 19
P(E)= P(p1).P(s1) + P(p2).P(s2) = x + x =
2 6 2 7 42

1.3.3. Four step Method of Conditional Probability

In a best of three tournaments the local c- league hockey team wins the first game with
probability 1/2. In subsequent games, their probability of winning is determined by the outcome
of the previous game.

If the local team won the previous game then they are invigorated by victory and win the current
game with probability 2/3.if they lost the previous game .then they are demoralized by defeat and
win the current game with probability only 1/3. What is the probability that the local team wins
the tournament given that they win the first game

Solution

This is a question about a conditional probability .Let A be the event that the local team win the
tournament and let B be the event that they win the first game our goal is then to determine the
conditional probability Pr[A] [B].

We can tackle conditional probability questions just like ordinary probability problems using a
tree diagram and the four step method .A complete tree diagram is shown in figure 17.1

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Step 1: find the sample space
Each internal vertex in the tree diagram has two children one corresponding to win for the local
team (labelled w) and one corresponding to loss (labelled L). The complete sample space is:

S= {WW, WLW, WLL, LWW, LWL, LL}

Step 2: define events on interest

The event that the local team wins the whole tournament is:

T= {WW, WLW, LWW}

And the event that the local team wins the first game is:

F = {WW, WLW, WLL}

The outcomes in these events are indicated with check marks in the tree diagram in figure17.1

Step 3: determine the outcomes probability

Next, we must assign a probability to each outcome .we begins by labelling edges as specified in
the problem statement.

Specifically, the local team has a1/2 chance of winning the first game, so the two edges leaving
the root are each assigned probability 1/2. other edges are labelled 1/3 or 2/3 based on the

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outcome of the preceding game we then find the probability of each outcome by multiplying all
probability along corresponding root to leaf path .For example the probability of outcome WLL
Is :

1/2 .1/3 .2/3=1/9

Step 4: compute event probability

We can now compute the probability that the local team wins the tournament given that they win
the first game:

We are done if the local team wins the first game then they win the whole tournament with
probability 7/9.

1.3.4. Why does tree diagram work?

A probability tree diagram is used to represent the probability of occurrence of events without

using complicated formulas. It displays all the possible outcomes of an event. The purpose of a
probability tree is that it shows all the possible outcomes of an event and calculates the
probability of these outcomes. A probability tree diagram can either represent a series of
independent events or it can be used to denote conditional probabilities.

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Sometimes, if there are sequential steps in an experiment, or repeated trials of the same
experiment, or if there are a number of stages of classification for objects sampled, it is very
useful to represent the probability/information on a tree diagram.

We’ve now settled into a routine of solving probability problems using tree diagrams. But we’ve
left a big question unaddressed: mathematical justification behind those funny little pictures.
Why do they work?

The answer involves conditional probabilities. In fact, the probabilities that we’ve been recording
on the edges of tree diagrams are conditional probabilities.

For example, Robin has 2 bags. Bag A has 7 balls of which 3 are red and 4 are blue and bag B
has 8 balls of which 5 are red and 3 are blue.

Robin is going to take a ball from each bag, he wants to know what all the possible outcomes are
so he draws a tree diagram:

Notice how for bag A there are two possibilities, either a red ball or a blue ball can be selected
and Robin has put the probability of each choice onto the diagram.

For bag B there are also two possibilities - these are written twice, once for each outcome of the
first choice.

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We can choose to take several different routes through the diagram depending on which
outcomes we are interested in.

If we want to know the probability that both balls are red, we take the route that passes
the 37 and the 58. We can use the AND rule to work out the probability of this happening:

P(R+R) = P(R) × P(R) = 3/7× 5/8 = 1556

If we want red first, then blue, P(R+B) = 3/7×3/8=9/56

If we want blue first, then red, P (B+R) = 4/7×5/8=20/56

If we want blue first, then blue, P (B+B) = 4/7×3/8=12/56

What is the probability Robin selects 1 blue ball and 1 red ball?

Solution
There are two ways to select 1 blue and 1 red. P(R+B) or P (B+R) both satisfy the condition. We
can use the OR rule to calculate the probability:

P (1 red and 1 blue) = 9/56+20/56=29/56

Often we use tree diagrams to model conditional probability. This is where there is more than
one outcome and they are not independent – in other words the first outcome affects the
probability of the second.

Note that each path on the tree diagram represents one outcome in the sample space.

Supplementary Exercise
Exercise 1

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Solution

Exercise 2

Solution

17
Exercise 3

Solution

Exercise 4

18
 =3/8

Exercise 5

Solution

19
Exercise 6

Exercise 7

Solution

20
Exercise 8

Solution

Exercise 9

Solution

21
Exercise 10

Solution

Exercise 11

Solution

22
Exercise 12

Solution

Exercise 13

Solution

23
Exercise 14

Solution

Different cases of contradiction, A speaks truth and B does not speak truth or A does not speak
truth and B speaks truth.

Exercise 15

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Summary
In this journal, we have discussed the basic concept of probability. We also explained the basic terms
and rules of probability. We have dealt with conditional probability with great specificity and detail. We
have seen that conditional probability is a possibility of an event or outcome happening, based on the
existence of a previous event or outcome. We tried to relate the concept of conditional probability with
the type of events especially with dependent and independent events. We have seen the basic formula
to determine the conditional probability of an event. We have also seen an alternative way to calculate
the conditional probability of an event using the tree diagram and justified mathematically how it works.
At the end of this journal, we placed important questions with detailed explanation and answer, in
addition to the examples given under each title.

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Reference
www.Byjus.com

www.toppr.com

www.analyzemath.com

www.ucl.ac.uk

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