Module STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Chapter 1 Basic Concepts of Statistics and Probability -

Revisited

Objectives: At the end of the lesson, the students will be able to:

1. Discuss some basic concepts of probability.

This chapter discussed some of the basic concepts of probability types, rules that
will help in discussing the remaining chapters of this module. The process of flipping a
coin, rolling a die or drawing a card from an ordinary deck of cards are called probability
experiments, and also defined as a chance process that will lead to well defined result
called outcomes.

Probability

Background:

During the 1500’s Cardano was one of the first people to study probability (probably
because he was a noted gambler). In the 1600’s Fermat in his correspondence with
Pascal develop the theory of probability. Pascal also worked on the concept of
mathematical expectation and there is a distribution in probability named after him. In the
1700’s De Moivre published the Doctrine of Chances, which contained a series of solved
problems, such as: Suppose that three tickets will be given prizes in a lottery having
40,000 tickets. What is the chance of winning at least one prize if you buy 8000 of those
tickets?

Students often hear and occasionally use statements of probability in their daily lives.
They note the weather forecasts when they wonder whether a game will be held or school
canceled. They also use more ambiguous general phrases such as not likely, no way,
and probably but, as with much of everyday speech, there are many misuses of
probability terminology and concepts.
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Fundamental Counting Rules

The fundamental counting principle is a rule used to count the total number of
possible outcomes in a situation. It states that if there are 𝑛 ways of doing something,
and m ways of doing another thing after that, then there are n×m ways to perform both of
these actions. In other words, when choosing an option for n and an option for m, there
are n×m different ways to do both actions.

Example:
Lily is trying to decide what to wear. She has shirts in the following colors: red, purple,
and blue. Also she has pants in the following colors: black and white. How many different
outfits can Lily choose from (assuming she selects one shirt and one pair of pants.)?

Solution:
According to the definition, if there are 𝑛 ways of doing something, and m ways of
doing another thing after that, then there are n×m ways to perform both of these actions.
In this example, there are 3 options in choosing a shirt and 2 options in choosing pants.
Thus, there are 3 x 2 = 6 total options.
Shirt Pants
red black
Blue black
purple black
red white
Blue white
purple white

Sample Spaces and Probability

• Probability - the likelihood of an event occurring.

• Probability experiment – a chance process that leads to well defined
results called outcomes. (i.e., some mechanism that produces a set of
outcomes in a random way).
• Outcome – the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.

Example: Roll a die once. What could happen in one roll of the die?

• Sample space – the set of all possible outcomes of a probability

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Example: Suppose I roll two six-sided dice. What is the sample space for
the possible outcomes?

1,2,3,4,5,6

Example: Find the sample space for drawing one card from an ordinary
deck of cards.

Sample space - 13 x4 = 52 possible outcomes

TREE DIAGRAM – a device consisting of line segments emanating from a starting point
and also from the outcome points. It is used to determine all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment.

Example: Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the sex of three children in a
family.
Our outcome pertains to the sex of one child AND the second of the next child AND the
sex of the third child. Each of the children will correspond to a branching in the tree.
• What is the sex of the first child? Boy/Girl
• Given the sex of the first child, what is the sex of the second child?
• Given the sex of the first two children, what is the sex of the third child?
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Event – consists of a set of possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

• Can be one outcome or more than one outcome.
• Simple event – an event with one outcome.
• Compound event – an event with more than one outcome.
Example: Roll a die and get a 6 (simple event).
Example: Roll a die and get an even number (compound event).

There are three basic interpretations or probability:

1. Classical probability
2. Experimental or relative frequency probability
3. Subjective probability

Theoretical (Classical) Probability – uses sample spaces to determine the numerical

probability that an event will happen.
• We do not actually perform the experiment to determine the theoretical probability.
• Assumes that all outcomes are equally likely to occur.

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐸 𝑛(𝐸)

𝑃(𝐸) = =
4

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑛(𝑆)

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Empirical Probability – the relative frequency of an event occurring from a probability

experiment over the long-run.
• It relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of an outcome rather than
assuming equally likely outcomes.

𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑓

𝑃(𝑀) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛

Example: Major Field of Study

Class Frequency
Math 5
History 7
English 4
Science 9
n 25
What is the probability of being a math major? Science major? History or English Major?

5 9 4
𝑃(𝑀) = 25 = 0.2 𝑃(𝑆) = 25 = 0.36 𝑃(𝐸) = 25 = 0.16

Subjective Probability – uses a probability value based on an educated guess or

estimate, employing opinions and inexact information.
• Often, you cannot “repeat” the probability experiment.

Example: What is the probability you will pass this class?

Example: What is the probability that you will get a certain job when you apply?

Probability Rules
1. The Probability of an event E must be a number between 0 and 1. i.e., 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐸) ≤ 1
2. If an event E cannot occur, then its probability is 0.
3. If an event E must occur, then its probability is 1.
4. The sum of all probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1.
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Fundamental Counting Principle | Brilliant Math & Science Wiki

Statistics and Probability for Senior High School , Winston S. Sirug, Ph.D.

Links for Learning:

Basic Concepts, Types And Rules Of Probability In Statistics - Key Probability

Terms - YouTube

Introduction to Probability, Basic Overview - Sample Space, & Tree Diagrams -

YouTube

Probability explained | Independent and dependent events | Probability and

Statistics | Khan Academy - YouTube

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